MU 的存储供应已售罄至 2028 年；庞大的资产负债表现金为未来周期性下行构筑了盈利底部，标志着一次结构性的积极转变。
逐段跳播
这张图表是在Micron刚刚发布2026财年第四季度财报后更新的，看看利息和投资收益那一栏的巨大跃升，以及它对每股收益的影响。
This is a chart updated right after Micron's Q4 fiscal 2026 report just a little while ago, and look at that huge jump in interest and investment income and its effect on earnings per share.
我们还没有每股自由现金流的数据。Micron尚未提交2026年年报，但我们会讨论这个问题。我们来谈谈Micron。这显然又是一份符合预期的非常好的财报。
We don't have free cash flow per share yet. The 2026 annual report hasn't been filed yet by Micron, but we're gonna be talking about this. Let's talk about Micron. It was, again, obviously, and as expected, a very good report.
存储和内存半导体今年仍然供不应求，而财报电话会议上的重头戏是CEO Sanjay Mehrotra和CFO Mark Murphy表示，2027年它们的产品再次售罄。
Memory and storage semiconductors remain sold out this year, and the big item from the earnings call was CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and CFO Mark Murphy, they're sold out again for 2027.
事实上，他们表示2027年和2028年的供应实际上会比今年更加紧张。
And in fact, they said supply will remain tighter actually, in 2027 and 2028 than it has been this year.
因此，存储和内存半导体——DRAM、HBM和NAND闪存——这些非常高的平均售价，至少就目前而言，看起来将在未来几年内保持高位。
So these very high average selling prices on memory and storage semiconductors, DRAM, HBM, and NAND flash, at least as of right now, appear will remain elevated through the next couple of years.
他们签署的SCA，即与一些较大客户签订的三到五年期销售协议，已经增加到二十六份，这将覆盖到本十年末约百分之三十五的营收。
The SCAs they've signed, the three to five-year sale agreements that they've signed with some of their larger customers has bumped up to twenty-six, and that's gonna cover, like, thirty-five percent of revenue through the end of this decade.
我认为现在可以说，这项业务发生了结构性变化，我们来谈谈原因。Micron和其他内存寡头企业，即它们与SK hynix和Samsung组成的卡特尔，通常处于该行业制造子板块的底部。它们是集成器件制造商。
I think it's time to say that there is a structural change in this business, and let's talk about why. Micron and the other memory oligopoly companies, the cartel that they have with SK hynix and Samsung are typically in the manufacturing sub-segment of the industry there at the bottom. They are integrated device manufacturers.
我们的长期增长趋势图表显示，内存的终端市场销售周期显然会归入这里的所有类别，但尤其是Micron的趋势一直非常紧密地跟随那条顶线——加速计算和AI基础设施、AI数据中心，我们对此不做改动。
And our secular growth trends chart on end market sales cycle for memory that would obviously fall into all categories here, but in particular, the trend for Micron has been very closely following that top line accelerated computing and AI infrastructure, AI data centers, and we're leaving this alone.
Micron就是其中之一，其营收增长率仍在惊人地升温。我们看看2027年是否会发生变化。我们认为增长率会放缓，不是停止，只是放缓，但盈利能力将继续上升。
Micron is among them, and their revenue growth rate is still amazingly heating up. We'll see if this changes in 2027. We think the growth rate will moderate, not stop, just moderate, but profitability will continue to rise.
他们表示，2027财年第一季度实际上将是毛利率的底部，约为86%、87%，并在接下来一年里逐季增长。由于内存平均售价更高，Micron正在将大量营收转化为现金利润，即便在投入新厂房、建设新晶圆厂、然后用设备填满这些晶圆厂之后也是如此，尤其是来自Fab Five——ASML、Applied Materials、Lam Research、Tokyo Electron、KLA Corp以及所有规模较小的公司。
They said the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 will actually be the floor for gross margin at around 86, 87%, and it's going to be in sequential growth throughout next year. Because of the higher average selling price for memory, Micron is converting a massive amount of its revenue into cash profit, even after they spend on new property, new fabs that they're constructing, and then fill those fabs up with equipment, especially from the Fab Five, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, KLA Corp, and all the smaller companies.
即便在那之后，现金转化能力也实在惊人。看看现金和短期投资仅环比就出现的那一跳跃，从260亿增至430亿。
Even after that, the cash conversion is really incredible. Look at that quarter-over-quarter jump just in cash and short-term investments going from twenty-six billion to forty-three billion quarter over quarter.
但更引人注目的是长期投资的跃升，尤其是美国国债之类的资产。上季度为41亿，现在超过300亿，而且听起来这个数字下季度很可能还会再翻一番。
But even more dramatically here is the jump in long-term investments, which would especially be things like US Treasuries. Four point one billion last quarter to over thirty billion now, and it certainly sounds like that number will probably double again next quarter.
也许他们应该联系一下Micron这样的内存公司，请它们帮忙。过去三个月对美国国债的购买真是相当疯狂。而且，在可预见的未来，这不会停止，因为他们很可能会继续买入，并且以更高的利率买入。
Maybe they ought to get in touch with the memory companies like Micron and enlist their help here. That is quite the buying spree in US Treasuries in the last three months. And again, this is not going to stop for the foreseeable future, as they're probably going to be buying these up and buying it at a higher interest rate.
这是Micron的利息和投资收益，即他们持有那些较长期投资——比如说十年期国债——所获得的利息。这意味着大量的利息收入，其利息收入环比增长超过一倍，这直接影响到GAAP净利润和自由现金流。
This is Micron's interest and investment income, so interest that they receive from holding those longer-term investments, let's say a ten-year treasury. Well, it means lots of interest income, more than a double quarter over quarter in their interest income, which directly impacts both GAAP net profit and free cash flow.
如果这些长期投资再翻一番，达到五百亿、六百亿美元，那么仅凭这一项资产负债表项目，Micron 每年就能产生数十亿美元的利润。
If those long-term investments do double again to fifty, sixty billion, we're looking at Micron being able to generate several billion dollars a year in profit from that balance sheet item alone.
到今年年底以及进入 2027 年之后，Micron 从所持的较短久期债券、资产负债表上的现金及短期投资部分，以及所持的较长期投资中获得的利息收入，每年四五十亿美元的净利息利润绝对并非不可能。
By the end of this year and as we head into 2027, the interest income Micron receives from both the shorter term duration bonds they hold and the cash and short-term investments segment of the balance sheet and the longer term investments they hold, yeah, four, five billion dollars a year in net interest profit is definitely not out of the question.
这对 Micron 意味着什么，为什么这会从结构上改变这项业务？这不仅仅关乎资产负债表上现金和投资充裕，可以通过股息回报股东。
What does that mean for Micron, and why does this structurally change the business? Well, it's not just about the balance sheet being rich with cash and investments to return to shareholders via a dividend.
如果有特别股息那就太好了。在当前这个时点，我更希望看到特别股息，而不只是提高股息。我认为那可能更合适。看看会不会发生吧。这只是我的猜测。
It would be great if there was like a special dividend. I'd much prefer that in this particular point in time more than just a dividend increase. I think that could be more appropriate.
Let's see if it happens. That's just my conjecture.
除了对股东的较长期回报之外，这样做还为 Micron 构筑了更多的底部支撑，以应对未来某个时候——从现在起三、四、五年之后——内存市场出现某种周期性放缓或周期性下行。
And beyond just the longer-term returns to shareholders, what this does is it creates more of a floor for Micron when there is eventually, at some point, three, four, five years down the road from now, some sort of cyclical slowdown or cyclical downturn in the memory market.
在过去二十多年里，有大量这样的低谷期，Micron 的每股收益和每股自由现金流会跌入负值区间，至少持续一年。从历史上看，这正是 Micron 以及其他内存公司、乃至任何半导体元件供应商以相对折价交易的原因，因为你必须对这样一个事实打折：在经历了几年的好光景之后，可能会有那么一两年你的每股利润跌入亏损，这会在一定程度上拉平长期增长率，而这必须在估值中予以折价。
Over the last twenty-plus years, there are plenty of these dips where Micron's earnings per share and free cash flow per share will dip into negative territory for at least a year.
And historically, that is why Micron and other memory companies, and really any semiconductor component supplier, has traded at a relative discount, is because you have to discount the fact that after a good couple of years, you might have a year or two where your profit per share dips into the red, and that kind of flattens out the long-term growth rate, and that has to be discounted in the valuation.
但随着资产负债表上所有这些长期投资和短期投资同时发生，这有可能减轻 Micron 在这些时期的冲击，因为他们现在将获得数十亿美元每年的利息和投资收入。
But with all of this balance sheet long-term investment and short-term investments on balance happening, this could potentially lessen the blow for Micron during those periods of time because of the interest and investment income that they are now set to be receiving, billions of dollars per year.
当然，这些投资也可能只是提供一种缓冲。这并不意味着 Micron 不会经历这样的时期：他们必须对制造业进行大量投资，而市场正经历某种周期性放缓或下行，因此他们可能最终不得不动用那笔现金和投资储备。
Now, those investments could, of course, also just simply provide a cushion. It doesn't mean that Micron won't have periods where they have to make lots of investments into their manufacturing and the market is going through some sort of cyclical slowdown or downturn, and so maybe they have to eventually dip into that cash and the investment stockpile that they have.
这有着显著的不同，它把 Micron 带入了一个极为罕见的行列。
This is significantly different, and it puts Micron into some rarefied air.
我再跳到 fiscal.ai 的最后一组图表，向你展示 Micron 将加入的那些净现金和长期投资余额远超一千亿美元的公司。
I'll jump to just one more set of charts from fiscal.ai and just show you some of the companies that Micron will be joining with a net cash and long-term investment balance well over a hundred billion.
所以这就是 Micron 现在所处的位置，而这并不相同。是的，有一些相似之处，但与互联网泡沫并不相同，因为至少就目前而言，Micron 尚未明确承诺将如何动用那笔现金。
And so that is now where Micron sits, and this is not the same. Yes, there are some similarities, but is not the same as the dot-com bubble because at least as of right now, Micron has not committed exactly what they're going to do with that cash.
因此随着它不断累积，这是一笔非常非常可观的战争基金。
And so as it accumulates, this is a really, really sizable war chest.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Chip Stock Investor 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。