继续买入 MU；当前估值已反映预期利润下滑，尽管存在周期风险，其价值仍优于 AMD。
逐段跳播
但如果你把那笔钱投在 Micron 上，你现在大约会有 6 万美元。这两家公司的股价都大幅飙升，因为它们都生产人工智能数据中心无法承受其成本的芯片。
But if you had invested that amount in Micron instead , you would now have around $60,000. The stock of both companies has skyrocketed because they both manufacture chips that artificial intelligence data centers cannot afford to produce .
但 Micron 为投资者带来了大得多的利润。仅仅两年时间，回报就相当于投资额的 10 倍。我叫 Alex，我曾在麻省理工学院（MIT）担任电气工程师和人工智能研究员 8 年，这帮助我在市场其他人之前好几年就找到了 Nvidia、TSMC 和 Micron 这样的优秀股票。
But Micron delivered much larger profits for investors. A return equivalent to 10 times the investment in just two years. My name is Alex, and I spent 8 years as an electrical engineer and artificial intelligence researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which helped me find excellent stocks like Nvidia, TSMC, and Micron years before the rest of the market.
那么，让我解释一下过去几年我为什么选择 Micron 而不是 AMD，以及我今天对这两只股票的看法。
So, let me explain why I chose Micron over AMD over the past few years , and what I think of both stocks today.
为什么人工智能及其相关标的会让这两家公司的股价上涨，又是什么让我多年前选择 Micron 而不是 AMD，并一直持有到今天？
Why did artificial intelligence and proxies cause the stocks of both companies to rise, and what made me choose Micron over AMD years ago and stick with it to this day?
我会比较 AMD 和 Micron 最新的财报，看看我的逻辑是否仍然成立，当然也会说明因此我今天会买这两只股票中的哪一只。
I will compare the latest earnings of AMD and Micron to see if my logic still holds true, and of course which of these two stocks I will buy today as a result.
要讲的内容很多，所以让我们先从最初是什么让这些股票涨得如此疯狂说起。
There's a lot to cover, so let's start with what made these stocks rise so wildly in the first place.
Micron 预计内存供应在 2027 年之后仍将保持有限。Micron 也面临与 Intel 相同的问题，称其只能满足主要客户需求的一半到三分之二。
Micron expects memory supplies to remain limited beyond 2027. Micron is also facing the same problem as Intel, saying it can only meet half to two-thirds of the demand from its major customers.
Micron 的 DRAM 价格去年春天上涨了超过 60%。
Micron's DRAM prices jumped by more than 60% last spring.
另一方面，无论 GPU 或 CPU 市场谁胜出，内存制造商都能获利，因为每个处理器都需要 DRAM。这就是多年前让我开始买入 Micron 股票的原因，而此后我一直在继续买入。
On the other hand, memory manufacturers make their profits regardless of who wins in the GPU or CPU markets, because every processor needs DRAM. This is what made me start buying Micron shares years ago and I have continued to buy them ever since.
上个季度，Micron 的数据中心部门创造了 340 亿美元的收入。这大约相当于 AMD 和 Intel 数据中心收入总和的三倍。
In the last quarter, Micron's data center division generated $34 billion. This is roughly equivalent to three times the combined data center revenues of AMD and Intel.
别忘了，Micron 甚至都不是最大的内存制造商。Samsung 的收入要高得多。AMD 和 Micron 如今的估值都在约 1 万亿美元。
And don't forget that Micron isn't even the biggest memory manufacturer. Samsung has generated significantly higher revenues . AMD and Micron are each valued at around one trillion dollars today.
华尔街预计这两家公司明年的利润将接近翻倍。投资者为 AMD 明年预期盈利支付的市盈率超过 45 倍，而为 Micron 支付的不到 7 倍。
Wall Street expects the two companies to nearly double their profits next year. Investors are paying more than 45 times AMD's projected next year's earnings, but less than 7 times for Micron.
换句话说，按每一美元预期利润计算，AMD 比 Micron 贵约七倍。
In other words, AMD is about seven times more expensive than Micron per dollar of projected profit.
Micron 的财报几天前刚刚公布，收入为 542 亿美元。这超出其预期约 8%，几乎是它一年前所实现水平的五倍。
Micron's earnings report came out just a few days ago, with revenues of $54.2 billion . This exceeds its expectations by about 8%, which is nearly five times what it achieved a year ago.
因此，Micron 不仅创造了 AMD 四倍的营收，而且是在利润率远高于 AMD 的情况下实现的。AMD 的毛利率为 56%，Micron 的毛利率为 87%。
Therefore, Micron not only generates four times the revenue of AMD, but it achieves this with much higher profit margins. AMD recorded gross profit margins of 56%. Micron recorded a rate of 87%.
Micron 预计下一季度营收将达到 615 亿美元。这与 AMD 预测的约 13% 的营收增幅大致相同，但其基数要大出四倍以上。
Micron expects revenues for the next quarter to reach $61.5 billion. This represents roughly the same 13% jump in revenue that AMD is forecasting, but from a base that is more than four times larger.
Micron 还有很大一部分营收受到合同保护。它已签署 26 份长期协议，覆盖到 2030 年其总营收的三分之一以上，并且已经获得 320 亿美元的客户承诺支持。
Micron also has a large portion of its revenue protected by contracts. It has signed 26 long- term deals covering more than a third of its total revenue through 2030, and is already backed by $32 billion in customer commitments.
其大部分高带宽内存到 2027 年的产量已经售出，价格远高于今年。但 Micron 也面临一些投资者应当考虑的风险。首先，内存价格仍在上涨，但涨幅比以前慢得多。
Most of its high-bandwidth memory has already been sold through 2027 at prices much higher than this year. But Micron also faces some risks that investors should take into account.
Firstly, memory prices are still rising, but at a much slower pace than before.
Micron 的 DRAM 价格去年春天上涨超过 60%，夏季涨幅不到 20%，而 Micron 预计未来价格上涨速度将进一步放缓。
Micron's DRAM prices jumped by more than 60% last spring, and by less than 20% during the summer, and Micron expects a slower rate of price increase going forward.
Micron 的增长很大一部分来自这些价格上涨，因此其自身的增长已经在放缓。从季度来看，其营收在两个季度前增长了 74%，上个季度增长了 31%，他们预计下一季度环比增长 13%。
Much of Micron's growth has come from these price increases, so its own growth is already slowing down. On a quarterly basis, their revenue grew by 74% two quarters ago, and by 31% in the last quarter, and they expect sequential growth of 13% in the next quarter.
第二个风险是，Micron 为了满足未来需求而在新工厂上投入过多。他们在上一财年花费了 270 亿美元用于工厂和设备，并计划仅在未来六个月内再花费约 250 亿美元。
The second risk is that Micron is spending too much on new factories to meet future demand. They spent $27 billion on factories and equipment in the last fiscal year, and plan to spend about an additional $25 billion in the next six months alone.
因此，在内存价格上涨放缓与他们在生产上的大量新支出之间，Micron 的利润率应会随着时间推移开始下降。我认为这是 Micron 的市盈率远低于 AMD 的一个主要原因。
So, between the slowing rise in memory prices and all their new spending on production, Micron's profit margins should start to decline over time. I believe this is a major reason why Micron is trading at a much lower price-to-earnings ratio than AMD.
内存拥有科技界最残酷的繁荣与萧条周期之一。作为 Micron 的长期贡献者，我亲眼见证过其中几次，最近一次就发生在几年前。
Memory has one of the most brutal boom-bust cycles in the tech world. As a long-term contributor to Micron, I have witnessed some of them, the last one being just a few years ago .
2022 年春天，Micron 创造了 86 亿美元的营收。九个月后，其营收降至 37 亿美元，毛利率暴跌至负 33%。
In the spring of 2022, Micron generated $8.6 billion in revenue. After nine months, their revenue had fallen to $3.7 billion, and their gross profit margins had plummeted to negative 33%.
Micron 被迫减记近 20 亿美元的芯片，因为这些芯片的价值已低于其制造成本，他们还被迫将芯片产量削减约 20%、员工人数削减 10%，其股价也腰斩。
Micron was forced to write off nearly $2 billion worth of chips because their value became less than the cost of manufacturing them, and they were forced to reduce chip production by about 20% and their workforce by 10%, and their stock fell by half .
投资者面临的主要风险是，内存股似乎在其业绩巅峰时估值最低。这是因为利润变得如此之高，以至于市值相比之下显得很小。
The major risk facing investors is that memory stocks appear to be at their cheapest at their peak performance. This is because the profits become so high that the market value seems small in comparison.
2018 年 1 月，Micron 的预期市盈率仅为 4.5 倍。在接下来的一年里，该股下跌了 27%。2022 年 6 月，该股的预期市盈率约为 6.5 倍。但到 9 月，它又下跌了 35%。
In January 2018, Micron was trading at only 4.5 times forward earnings. Over the next year , the stock fell by 27% . In June 2022, the stock was trading at approximately 6.5 times forward earnings. But by September, it had fallen by another 35%.
Micron 的股票目前的预期市盈率再次低于七倍。
Micron's stock is currently trading at less than seven times forward earnings again.
股价也往往在盈利之前见顶。2022 年，Micron 的股价在 1 月见顶，而其营收一直创下纪录直到 6 月。
The stock price also tends to peak before earnings. In 2022, Micron's stock peaked in January while their revenues continued to set records through June.
所以，当内存价格开始像现在这样放缓时，许多投资者不会等到看清这个周期将如何结束。如今最大的不同在于高带宽内存（HBM）。HBM 使用的硅片大约是普通 DRAM 内存的三倍，而且这一比例随着每一代新产品持续上升。
So, when memory prices start to slow down as they are now , many investors don't wait to see how this cycle will end . The biggest difference today is high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
HBM uses about three times as much silicon as regular DRAM memory, and this ratio continues to rise with each new generation.
这意味着每一代新的 HBM 芯片都会消耗更多本可以分配给普通内存的供应，这是整体内存短缺的一个主要因素。Micron 的长期合同还包含价格下限，Micron 表示，即便在这些较低的价格下，它也预计其利润率将显著高于以往任何周期峰值的利润率。
This means that each new generation of HBM chips consumes more of the supply that could have been directed to regular memory, which is a major factor in the overall memory shortage .
Micron's long-term contracts also include a price floor, and Micron said it expects its profit margins to be significantly higher than the peak margins of any previous cycle, even at those lower prices.
但这些合同只覆盖 Micron 收入的三分之一。其余收入仍然取决于市场。有许多内存供应即将进入市场。Micron 在爱达荷州和日本的新工厂将在 2027 年年中至 2028 年年底之间开始生产。
But these contracts only cover a third of Micron's revenue. The rest of the revenue still depends on the market. There are many memory supplies about to enter the market. Micron's new factories in Idaho and Japan will begin production between mid-2027 and late 2028.
Samsung 和 SK Hynix 也在加大生产。具体来说，Samsung 在高带宽内存方面追赶得很快。其市场份额在一个季度内从 21% 跃升至 33%，而 Micron 的份额则从 21% 降至 18%。
Samsung and SK Hynix are also ramping up production. Specifically, Samsung was catching up quickly when it came to high-bandwidth memory. Their market share jumped from 21% to 33% in one quarter, while Micron's share fell from 21% to 18%.
Micron 的份额从 21% 降至 18%。Micron 远期市盈率的下降，是市场押注这个周期会像以往一样结束。
Micron's share fell from 21% to 18%. The decline in Micron's forward price-to-earnings ratio is the market's bet that this cycle will end as it always does.
好，让我们来回答这个大问题。这两只高增长的 AI 芯片股中，哪一只最值得今天买入？
Okay, let's answer the big question. Which of these two high- growth AI chip stocks is the best to buy today?
现在，让我们在 AMD 股票和 Micron 股票之间做出选择。比较它们的最佳方式是弄清股价中究竟已经包含了什么。
Now, let's decide between AMD stock and Micron stock. The best way to compare them is to find out what is actually included in the stock price.
Micron 的股票处于完全相反的位置。如果 Micron 以 17 或 18 倍市盈率交易，股价将超过 2,700 美元。
Micron's stock is in a completely opposite position . If Micron were to trade at 17 or 18 times earnings, the stock price would be over $2,700.
因此，当前价格只有在 Micron 的长期盈利较华尔街对明年的预期下降约 60% 并长期维持在该水平的情况下才说得通。
Therefore, the current price only makes sense if Micron's long-term earnings fall by about 60% from what Wall Street expects next year and stay there in the long run.
但分析师实际上预计 Micron 的利润将持续增长直至 2028 年。Micron 仅在上个季度就产生了 330 亿美元的自由现金流。他们拥有 680 亿美元现金，超过其债务，并计划增加股票回购，最终将所有过剩流动性分配给股东。
But analysts actually expect Micron's profits to continue rising until 2028. Micron also generated $33 billion in free cash flow in the last quarter alone. They have $68 billion in cash that exceeds their debt, and they plan to increase share buybacks and eventually distribute all the excess liquidity to shareholders.
所以，基于今天的数字，Micron 股票的价值要好得多，但它也可能波动最大。
So, based on today's numbers, Micron stock represents a much better value, but it may also be the most volatile.
如果内存价格继续放缓，该股可能会大幅下跌，而其盈利却继续增长，就像 2018 年和 2022 年那样。Micron 的股价预设了利润将大幅下降，尽管其收入的三分之一已经通过合同锁定，
If memory prices continue to slow, the stock could fall sharply while their earnings continue to grow, just as they did in 2018 and 2022. Micron's stock price presupposes a significant drop in profits, even though a third of their revenue is already contracted,
而且高带宽内存使这个周期与前两个周期明显不同，并且他们即将通过股票回购增加分配给股东的金额。出于这个原因，我目前的计划是继续买入 Micron 股票，尽管自我开始买入以来它们已经上涨了 10 倍。
and high-bandwidth memory makes this cycle markedly different from the previous two, and they are about to increase the amounts directed to shareholders through share buybacks .
For this reason, my current plan is to continue buying Micron shares , even though they have already increased 10 times since I started.
如果DRAM期货价格开始企稳甚至下跌，而他们却继续在新工厂上投入更多资金，那就是我停止买入该股的信号。
If DRAM futures prices start to stabilize or even decline while they continue to spend more money on new factories, that's my signal to stop buying the stock.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Ticker Symbol: YOU 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。