美光强劲的业绩未能提振股价，因预期过高及供应问题，市场对其增长可持续性仍存疑虑，但说话者并不认为好日子已经结束。
逐段跳播
这意味着你需要更深入地研究美光（Micron）的股票。这些股票正承受压力，源于我们上周在其季度业绩发布后看到的一些疲软，尽管业绩好于预期。
This means you want to delve deeper into Micron's stock. These stocks are under pressure stemming from some of the weakness we saw last week following their quarterly results, although they came in better than expected.
那么，我们来谈谈美光。这些股票略微偏低。好日子结束了吗？我不这么认为。是的，我并不一定认为好日子已经结束，但考虑到上周的营收业绩为 54 亿美元，这令人意外。它同比增长了 279%，而且前景也好于预期。
然而，该股在盘前交易中下跌了 1%，并且在市场开盘后未能回升。
So, let's talk about microns. Those shares are slightly low. Are the good times over ? I don't think so. Yes , I don't necessarily think the good times are over, but it's surprising given that last week's revenue results were $5.4 billion.
It has risen by 279% year-on-year , and the outlook has also been stronger than expected. However, the stock fell by 1% in pre- market trading and failed to recover when the markets opened.
因此，我认为华尔街对这种增长的可持续性仍持怀疑态度。此外，该公司的利润仅超出预期 5%，相比之下，我们此前在一些科技巨头的正面惊喜中看到的超出幅度在 20% 到 40% 之间。
Therefore, I think Wall Street remains skeptical about the sustainability of this growth. Moreover, the company's profits exceeded expectations by only 5%, compared to rates ranging between 20% and 40% that we have seen in previous positive surprises for some technology giants.
我认为投资者目前主要担心的是供应危机。业内表示，高带宽内存（HBM）的供应预计在 2027 年和 2028 年仍将保持有限。
I think investors are currently mainly concerned about the supply crisis. The industry has stated that supplies of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to remain limited for 2027 and 2028.
最后，我认为应该记住，内存行业是一个高度周期性的行业。因此，许多投资者已经意识到这一点，并且知道这个行业伴随着波动。
And finally, I think it should be remembered that the memory sector is a highly cyclical sector. Therefore, many investors have realized this and know that there are fluctuations that accompany this sector.
关于美光在未来一年已锁定的客户数量，有一个合理的观点可以提出。他们到 2030 年拥有 26 份战略客户协议，这约占其预计产量的 35%。
Well, there is a valid point that can be made regarding the number of customers that have been secured for Micron for the coming year. They have 26 strategic customer agreements through 2030 , which represents about 35% of their projected output.
所以这是肯定的，但我认为这在很大程度上也取决于你对 AI 交易方向的假设，因为其中很多都集中在 HBM 内存上，而不是 DRAM 等普通内存。因此，我认为乐观主义者对于人工智能发展以及未来几年 HBM 内存持续需求的看法，已经将许多预期计入其中。
So that's for sure, but I think it also depends a lot on your assumption about the direction of AI trading , because a lot of this focuses on HBM memory rather than regular memory such as DRAM and others.
Therefore, I think a lot of expectations are already built in by optimists regarding their view of the development of artificial intelligence and the continued demand for HBM memory in the next few years .
鉴于该股在业绩公布后的反应，无论用哪种基准来评估美光，这一反应都很强劲。这是否表明市场对内存行业这些公司的期望有多高？
Given the stock's reaction following the announcement of the results, which was strong regardless of the benchmark used to evaluate Micron. Does this show how high the expectations are for these companies operating in the memory sector?
是的，我认为是这样。我的意思是，你甚至看到了预期与现实之间的那道差距。我认为投资者现在对业绩超出预期的可能性抱有极高的期望。
Yes, I think so. I mean, you even witnessed that gap between expectations and reality . I think investors' expectations are now sky-high regarding the likelihood of results exceeding expected performance.
虽然投资者现在预期大致相同的盈利结果，而且看到它们仍然超出预期是件好事，但现在业绩需要高得多，该股才能因此实际上涨。
While investors now expect much of the same earnings results, and it's good to see that they still exceed expectations , the results now need to be much higher for the stock to actually rise based on them.
我认为，由于内存价格的历史波动，当前的供应短缺可能构成潜在问题。他们已经投入资本支出以建造更多工厂，但让这些工厂投产需要一些时间。因此，我认为我们目前面临的是一个与利率相关的、有风险的整体局面，这可能对潜在支出构成压力。
我们还需要考虑这些工厂能否足够快地投产以满足供应需求。
I believe that due to historical fluctuations in memory prices, the current shortage in supply could pose a potential problem. They have invested in capital expenditures to build more factories, but it will take some time to get them up and running.
Therefore, I believe we are currently facing a risky overall situation with regard to interest rates, which could put pressure on potential spending. We also need to consider whether the factories will come online quickly enough to meet supply needs.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 22 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。