美光（Micron）是明确的存储赢家：营收同比增长380%至540亿美元，下季度指引为615亿美元，前瞻市盈率低于7倍。管理层预计供需失衡将持续至2027-2028年，这回应了悲观者的周期担忧；不过资本开支接近500亿美元、利润率下滑75个基点仍是风险。
逐段跳播
美光公布了创纪录的利润。这实际上是我们多年来从这类公司身上看到的最令人兴奋的财报之一。营收超过540亿美元。这相当于同比增长约380%。毛利率达到87%，归根结底，存储芯片行业已经从一门乏味的周期性生意，转变为人工智能交易中最赚钱的领域之一，而这一切大约在18个月内就发生了。
Micron announced record profits. It was actually one of the most exciting earnings results we've seen from a company like this in years. Revenues exceeded $54 billion. This represents an increase of approximately 380% year-on-year.
With a gross profit margin of 87%, the bottom line is that the memory chip industry has transformed from a boring, cyclical business into one of the most lucrative areas of the artificial intelligence trade , and this has happened in approximately 18 months.
我想在这里提到的第一只股票就是美光科技本身。不是吗？这就是你提到的那家公司，对吧？同比增长380%。按季度计算，营收增长了31%。这就是那种市场看法完全分裂的股票之一。不是吗？
I mean, the first stock I want to mention here is Micron Technology itself. Isn't that so? This is the company you mentioned, isn't it? Growth of 380% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, revenues increased by 31%.
This is one of those stocks that the market is completely divided over. Isn't that so?
悲观的观点认为：看，这些数字看起来非常漂亮。我不会争辩说这些数字不好看，但在这种典型的周期性市场里，这个故事什么时候会结束？它会很快结束吗？而我感觉乐观派在说：“嘿，数字很强劲，管理层给我们的表态表明，这个周期会比以往任何一次都持续得久得多。”因此，现在大概率不是担心这门生意周期性的时候。
The pessimistic viewpoint says: Look, the numbers look fantastic. I won't argue that the numbers don't look great , but when does this story end in this typical cyclical market?
Will it end anytime soon ? And I sense that the optimists are saying, "Hey, the numbers are strong, and the comments the management is giving us indicate that this cycle will last much longer than any other."
Therefore, now is probably not the time to worry about the cyclical nature of this work.
我会分享一些数字，以及我们为什么对美光感到兴奋的一些理由，但始终要意识到，美光头上笼罩着一层悲观的阴云，这是好事。
I'll share some numbers and some reasons why we're excited about Micron , but it's always good to be aware that there's a sort of pessimistic cloud hanging over Micron.
但正如Rachel提到的，营收达到了540亿美元。这相当于环比增长31%。正如我们所说，同比增长380%。全年营收为1330亿，比去年增长256%。
But as Rachel mentioned, the revenue reached $54 billion. This represents a 31% increase on a quarterly basis. As we said, an increase of 380% on an annual basis . Full-year revenues are 133 billion, an increase of 256% compared to last year.
以防投资者还不了解，他们刚刚公布了第四财季业绩。也就是说，他们刚刚结束了自己的财年。他们的财年比日历年大约提前一个季度。因此，他们给出了对全年的那类指引。至于下一季度，也就是第一季度，他们仍然预计环比和同比都会有不错的增长。
营收预计将升至615亿美元。这比现在还要再增加约60至70亿美元。调整后每股收益为38.15美元。所以管理层是在直接告诉你：看，下一季度我们不会看到那种疲软。相反，我们会继续看到巨大的需求。
他们向我们反馈了整个下一季度以及明年的情况，他们预计明年全年营收会连续增长。他们认为供需失衡在2027年或2028年都不会得到解决。显然，这就是管理层告诉我们的，而且他们对自己的业务非常乐观。
Just in case investors weren't aware, they've just announced their fourth-quarter fiscal year results. So, they have just finished their fiscal year. They are about a quarter ahead of the calendar year .
Therefore, they provided that type of guidance for the entire year. As for the next quarter, the first quarter, they still expect good growth on a quarterly and annual basis. Revenue is expected to rise to $61.5 billion.
That's an additional increase of about $6-7 billion over what it is now. Adjusted earnings per share of $38.15. So management is telling you directly , look, in the next quarter we won't see that weakness.
On the contrary, we will continue to see huge demand. They have given us feedback throughout the next quarter and for next year that they expect consecutive revenue growth throughout next year.
They believe that the imbalance between supply and demand will not be resolved in 2027 or 2028. Clearly, this is what management is telling us, and they are very optimistic about their business.
所以也要明白，他们多少有某种动机或激励，对自己的业务更加乐观。但他们告诉我们的是，需求已经存在。现在，有一些事情需要考虑，尤其是如果你持悲观态度、担心某些潜在风险的话，那就是资本开支非常强劲。
他们表示，仅明年上半年的资本开支就大约为250亿美元，而下半年还会更大。所以，从一开始，2027财年的资本开支就至少达到500亿美元，这对他们来说是一个峰值。他们以前从未见过这种规模的资本开支。
我想他们最近花了大约300亿。所以，这是资本开支的大幅增加，投资者应该把这一点考虑进去，因为当供需这个故事结束时会发生什么？他们会有很多供应链产线。
So, understand also that they have some kind of incentive or motivation to be more optimistic about their work. But what they are telling us is that the demand already exists. Now, there are some things to consider, especially if you are pessimistic and worried about some of the underlying risks, which is that capital expenditures are very strong.
They stated that capital expenditures for just the first half of next year would be around $25 billion, and the second half of that year would be even larger. So , from the start you are already getting at least $50 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2027, and that represents a peak for them.
They had never seen this type of capital expenditure before . I think they have spent around 30 billion recently. So, this is a significant increase in capital expenditures, something investors should take into account, because what will happen when the supply and demand story ends? They will have many supply chain lines .
他们提到的另一件事是，预计下一季度毛利率将环比下降约75个基点。所以，下降约0.75并不算什么大事，但我认为这开始引发疑问。毛利率为什么在下降，不是吗？这只是那个故事的开始。不过，管理层表示，由于他们获得的价格，第一季度之后的整体利润率应该会在此后上升。
The other thing they mentioned is that gross profit margins are expected to decline sequentially in the next quarter by about 75 basis points. So, a drop of about 0.75 is not a big deal, but I think it starts to raise questions.
Why are gross profit margins decreasing, isn't that so ? This is just the beginning of that story. However, management stated that overall profit margins after the first quarter should increase thereafter due to the prices they are receiving .
所以，对我来说，Rachel，美光显然是存储领域那些赢家之一。如果我们只看存储行业受影响的公司，美光的远期市盈率不到七倍，你当然能看到看涨情绪，但我也理解为什么悲观者会远离这家公司。
So, for me, Rachel, I mean Micron is clearly one of those winning companies in the memory field. If we're only looking at companies affected in the memory industry, I mean Micron is trading at a forward P/E ratio of less than seven, and you can certainly see the bullish sentiment, but I also understand why pessimists are staying away from this company.
你会看到像TSMC、Intel、SK Hynix和Micron这样的公司，全都在增加资本开支，是的，我认为今天这三家公司的重要之处在于Micron、Western Digital和Lam Research。
如你所知，它们都受益于同一个趋势，也就是人工智能领域的扩张。
You see companies like TSMC, Intel, SK Hynix, and Micron, all increasing their capital expenditures, Yes, and I think the important thing about these three companies today is Micron, Western Digital, and Lam Research.
As you know, they all benefit from the same trend, which is the expansion in the field of artificial intelligence.
我们认为这是三个有说服力的成长故事的例子，但我们想在评论区听听你的看法。
We believe these are examples of three compelling growth stories , but we would like to hear your opinions in the comments.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。