$MU · David Lin · 2026-10-31
Micron 还有进一步下跌空间，因为包括 Micron 新厂在内的许多工厂将在未来一到两年内投产，而中国的 CXMT 是重要参与者，因为存储并非专有技术。他预计 12 到 18 个月内会回到 $465 一带，不过下跌途中他可能会做多。
逐段跳播
我还没有真正介入 Micron。在我看来，Micron 还有下跌空间。
I haven't really stepped into the microns yet. Micron to me uh still has downside to go.
Micron，我们能快速聊聊 Micron 吗？我们之前在我的节目上聊过这个。你实际上在我的节目上完美地预测了6月左右的顶部。人们可以回去看那期节目。然后我们已经有相当一段时间没聊它了。你现在怎么看 Micron？
Micron, uh can we just quickly talk about Micron? We've talked about this on my show before. You've actually perfectly called uh the top around June on my show. People can actually go back and watch that.
Um and then we haven't talked about it in quite a while. What do you think about Micron right now?
我仍然认为它还会下跌。我认为，未来一到两年会有这么多工厂投产，包括 Micron 的新工厂。但中国是一个主要参与者。CXMT，我们之前也聊过。听着，内存并不是专有的。这些芯片曾出现短缺。
人们被打了个措手不及，但现在这种短缺已经持续了一年多，工厂将会投产。说实话，我认为在某个时点，听着，这并不意味着我不会在下跌途中做多，但在某个时点，我认为我们会回到465美元，就是这后面的这个区域。而且我认为这会在未来12到18个月内发生。
I still think it's coming down. I think again you have so many factories over the next year to two years coming on online including new Micron factories. Um but China's a major player.
CXMT, we've talked about that before as well. Um that you know, listen, memory is not proprietary. Um these chips, there was a shortage. People got caught off guard, but now it's been a year plus of this shortage and factories will be coming online.
And at some point, I honestly think, and listen, it doesn't mean I won't play it for a long on the way down, but at some point, I think we're going back to $465, this area right back here.
And I think that will be within the next 12 to 18 months.