$MU · Meet Kevin · 2026-11-03
美光被低估：即便计入周期性折价，约0.33的PEG也过于苛刻；按其利润率水平，本可对应2.7的PEG，而即便下调一个PEG，仍意味着约为当前价值的5倍。Bernstein认为，到2028年末，CXMT的晶圆产能将超过美光。
逐段跳播
杠杆ETF不得不在短短一天内抛售19亿美元的美光股票。
Leverage ETFs had to dump $1.9 billion dollars of Micron in just one day.
Kepler World Value ETF现在对美光的敞口实际上已经达到14%。有人，呃，抱歉，Kepler是在评论World Value ETF，他们认为美光存在泡沫。但World Value ETF对美光的敞口有14%。
为什么？因为美光目前的PEG比率大约是0.33，也就是市盈率相对增长比率。你需要为周期性给这家公司多大的惩罚？按他们的利润率，他们大概值2.7的PEG。现在，你还得在这个基础上加上周期性折价。
好吧。所以随便吧，减掉一个PEG。就算你减掉一个PEG，1.7除以0.33，他们现在的股价也应该是现在的5倍。
The Kepler World Value ETF now literally has a 14% exposure to Bicron. Now, some people call uh sorry, Kepler is commenting on the world uh value ETF and and they think that Micron is a bubble.
But the world value ETF has 14% of an exposure to Micron. Why? Well, because Micron's trading for like a.33 peg ratio, a price to earnings growth ratio right now. How much do you need to punish the company for cyclicality?
At their margins, they're probably worth a 2.7 peg. Now, you have to put a cyclicality discount in that. Okay. So whatever, take one peg off. Well, even if you took one peg off, 1.7 divided by.33, they should be 5x where they are right now.
其实Bernstein认为，到2028年底，CXMT的晶圆产能将超过美光。
You know people actually Bernstein sees CXMT bypassing Micron in wafer capacity by late 2028.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。