$MU · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-05

Micron paused uh work on a $4.5 billion plan in Taiwan because of a labor dispute. Now, my inclination would be this is probably going to go forward. You're just using your leverage, but this is also the kind of thing where the market is going, hey, wait a second.

We have priced this in that you're going to have this expansion in capacity. If you're saying, you know what, paying more, paying our workers a little bit more is not worth it, then how much are you really are you really making on this?

So everything has been we don't have enough supply. So Nvidia wins, Broadcom wins, Micron wins, AMD wins, Intel even wins.

the leg that Micron uh plant that we talked about earlier, that's still going to come online probably in 2028. They're going to figure out the labor thing, but they put too much money, too much time, effort into like it's a it's a sunk cost at this point. So that supply is going to still come online.

Would you buy Micron and AMD on days like today? The memory names, they can remain cheap. And I've made this this statement before. They can remain cheap for quite a while and then suddenly become expensive because the growth rates are slowing down, margin slows down, etc., etc. But if let's say only Micron and AMD dropped over the past month and everything else stayed flat, then I would say yeah probably yes.

But since all the others, a Meta, a Google, I mean, Sofi did go up a little bit or since the earnings, but a Nebus or or even an Nvidia or whatever or Axon also recovered a bit.

But if all of these names have also come down and these names don't offer the same headaches as as an AMD or or a Micron, then I would go I would go with them. I still own AMD.

I still own Micron and actually AMD today is yes it's getting cheaper and cheaper because the stock keeps dropping while the company keeps accelerating. So maybe at one point that will that name will become okay if we stay at 400 the company continues to accelerate from here.

Maybe the other names go up faster and that's why their profile gets a little bit less attractive. Then I could pivot back to adding to my AMD position. So it's currently on hold.

I own it. I like what they're doing. They're growing. They're accelerating. So, I'm happy. But when I look at adding, especially in today's environment, it's it's changing cuz maybe two weeks ago a name was trading at I don't know higher multiples and today it's trading at way attractive multiples because the market did bring the stock down more more and more.

But yeah, I'm trending towards just going for for a meta Google these these types of big companies going into 27.

Micron I just don't at this point I I talked with Jose about uh and you know being interested in Micron early in 2025 when it was trading for like eight times earnings and there was potential tailwinds for the thing this thing called high bandwidth memory.

Uh we have now seen what that looks like. We are now at the point where they're investing more in capex that supply is going to continue to go up. customers who are the source of demand are going to figure out ways to use less high bandwidth memory or less memory overall.

We're now in the commodity part of the commodity cycle and I don't want to own a commodity supplier. Uh so yes, low priced earnings multiple I have played that game before and lost and learned my lessons.

You know, then this is one of those things I think we sometimes you just have to to I can say things like this. I can say that, you know, debt yields matter. Uh, until you actually experience it yourself, it's it's sometimes really hard to see.

So, that's why I'm just staying out of it. Maybe it's a great buy today, maybe it's not.

with micron some someone said it a couple of weeks ago or maybe a couple of days ago and I think it's it's spot on. I think micron is a case where it either doubles or triples from here or it gets slashed in half over the next the next couple of quarters.

I don't think there's a middle point for for micron because it it is so cheap because it it is going to generate an insane amount of of free cash flow over the next couple of of years.

So it's either this or or that. I don't think a micron stays stays where it is for for the next couple of next couple of years. And and that's the reason why I'm like do I need this headache?

Like yes, on the one hand I it could double, but on the other hand it could also come down by 50%. And maybe maybe I'm okay with a meta growing 20%. Every year or or something like it. I mean that's fine by me.