$MU · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-06
美光在799美元价位值得买入，测算公允价值为1,556美元。利润率连续两个季度超过80%，并预计下季度仍高于80%；零部件价格/ASP出现三位数涨幅，且产品按长期协议已订满至2028年，这降低了研发、制造、过度建设和估值过高的风险，但该股仍具周期性。
逐段跳播
Micron 是另一只因选举结果而下跌的半导体股票。Micron 的股价具体下跌了6.6%，跌幅大于大多数其他半导体股票，因为 Micron 是这轮数据中心热潮最大的受益者之一。
Micron is another semiconductor stock that has declined as a result of the election. Micron's stock specifically fell by 6.6%, a larger percentage than most other semiconductor stocks , because Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this data center boom.
Micron 连续两个季度实现了超过80%的营业利润率。我全职跟踪公司大约八年了，跟踪过数百家公司，分析过数千份季度财务报表，我从未见过哪家公司实现超过80%的营业利润率，一次都没有，直到 Micron 最近连续两个季度做到了。
Micron achieved an operating profit margin exceeding 80% for two consecutive quarters. I have been following companies full-time for about eight years, and I have followed hundreds of companies and analyzed thousands of quarterly financial statements, and I have never seen a company achieve an operating profit margin above 80%, not once, until Micron recently did it for two consecutive quarters.
此外，Micron 对下一季度的预测显示，它将实现80%或以上的营业利润率。其组件的价格以及组件的平均售价已经上涨了三位数的百分比，管理团队表示，他们的产品直到2028年的产能都已全部订满。
他们正在与客户签订长期协议，这些客户现在正急于提前许多年锁定供应，而以前这些客户和公司满足于购买满足眼前需求的产品，而不是提前数年做规划。
Furthermore, Micron's forecast for the next quarter indicates that it will achieve an operating profit margin of 80 % or more. The prices of its components and the average selling price of its components have increased by triple-digit percentages, and the management team has stated that their products are fully booked until 2028.
They are signing long-term agreements with customers who are now urgently trying to secure supplies many years in advance, whereas previously these customers and companies would have been content to buy products for their immediate needs rather than planning for years ahead.
这种长期规划降低了 Micron 的风险，因为它能更有效地了解客户想要什么、什么时候需要，这降低了公司的研发风险。它也降低了 Micron 的制造风险，使其能够更有效地规划业务。
我并不是说 Micron 的股票不再具有周期性，但至少过度建设、估值过高以及生产出客户可能不想要的产品这些风险，已经因它与客户签订的长期协议而在一定程度上得到缓解。
This long-term planning reduces risks for Micron because it knows more effectively what its customers want and when they need it, which lowers the company's research and development risks.
It also reduces Micron's manufacturing risks and allows it to plan its business more effectively. I'm not saying that Micron's stock is no longer cyclical, but at least the risks of over-construction, overvaluation, and creating products that customers may not want have been mitigated to some extent, thanks to the long-term agreements it has signed with customers.
我计算出的 Micron 股票公允价值为1556，而今天你可以用不到800的价格买入，也就是每股799美元。
I calculated the fair value of Micron stock at 1556, and you can buy it today for less than 800, i.e., at a price of $799 per share.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 15 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。