继续前请同意我们的使用条款、隐私说明及 YouTube 服务条款。

$MU

$MU · Dividend Data · 2026-11-05

AI 摘要 · Dividend Data

MU看起来非常便宜且具吸引力:严重的内存短缺使其能够收取天价,上季度69.5%的净利润率超过英伟达,按预期2027财年每股收益计算市盈率仅为3.8,年化自由现金流倍数为5.8倍。风险在于,由于它并非AI创新者,若危机化解,其盈利将在2至4年内大幅下滑。

看涨他说的是几年内
《AI Stocks are Crashing. Top 5 Stocks To Buy Now.》
Dividend Data发布 2026-11-05 · 19 段内容
00:11/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

19 段内容
0:1129:34

像 SanDisk 和 Micron 这样的内存制造商,

memory makers like SanDisk and Micron,

像 SK Hynix、Micron 和 Samsung 这样的公司设计和制造内存。

Companies like SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung design and manufacture memory.

在这种背景下,我们今天列表上的第四只股票是 Micron,股票代码为 MU。它是制造内存的领先公司之一。我们知道目前存在严重的内存危机。Micron 作为一家历史上经历过大起大落的商品型企业,现在正抓住这个机会。

And in this context, the fourth stock on our list today is Micron, whose ticker symbol is MU. It is one of the leading companies that manufacture memory. We know that there is currently a severe memory crisis.

Micron, a company that has historically gone through major ups and downs as a commodity business, is now seizing this opportunity.

整个内存行业由 Micron、SK Hynix 和 Samsung 组成。他们现在收取天价,因为他们知道他们最大的客户之一 Nvidia 愿意支付更高的价格,因为 Nvidia 赚了很多钱。

The entire memory sector is made up of Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. They are now charging sky-high prices because they know that one of their biggest customers, Nvidia, is willing to pay higher prices because they are making a lot of money.

在最近一个季度,Micron 的毛利率为86.8%,营业利润率为80.7%,净利润率为69.5%。Micron 的利润率现在高于 Nvidia。他们正在赚取惊人的利润,我将详细说明。

In the latest quarter, Micron's gross margin was 86.8%, operating margin was 80.7%, and net margin was 69.5%. Micron's profit margin is now higher than Nvidia's. And they are making incredible profits, which I will detail.

你可能会说:“嘿,爸爸,这只股票不是被高估了吗?过去5年涨了825%。”好吧,如果我们看今天的抛售压力,该股今天下跌了15%。过去5天下跌了27.65%。过去一个月下跌了36.6%。但令人惊讶的是,今年迄今上涨了113%。

You might say, "Hey Dad, isn't this stock overvalued? It's up 825% in the last 5 years." Okay, if we see selling pressure today, the stock is down 15% today. It has decreased by 27.65% in the last 5 days.

It has decreased by 36.6% in the last month. But surprisingly, it is up 113% year-to-date.

信不信由你,这远远落后于实际收入增长。美光今年的营收增长了599%。原因在于他们要价太高。所以,他们的利润出现了大幅跃升。

Believe it or not, this lags far behind real income growth. Micron's revenue has grown 599% this year. And the reason for this is that they are charging too much. So, there has been a big jump in their profits.

看看这张历史图表。它反复上涨、下跌、波动。在最新一个季度,他们的盈利是2018年上一个峰值时的八倍。这只是一个季度的估算。而且未来一两年内不会下降。内存危机依然严重。

Look at this chart historically. It increases, decreases, and fluctuates repeatedly. In the latest quarter, they are earning eight times more than their previous peak in 2018. This is just a one-quarter estimate.

And it won't decrease in the next year or two. There is still a severe memory crisis.

美光在最新一个季度产生了328.6亿美元的自由现金流。这比去年同期增长了45,000%。他们的商业模式不像Nvidia、AMD或Broadcom那样资本密集,因为他们自己生产这些产品,这一点我之前提到过。

正因如此,他们开始增加资本支出(capex),因为有人告诉他们:“你们需要增加产量。”如果你听听这些公司几乎每一位CEO的说法,他们都会说,相比所需的数量,他们生产的根本不算什么。

Micron generated $32.86 billion in free cash flow in the latest quarter. This is 45,000% more than last year. Their business model is not as capital-intensive as Nvidia, AMD, or Broadcom, because they make these products themselves, which I mentioned earlier.

And that's why they've started increasing their capital expenditure, or capex, because they've been told, "You need to increase production." And if you listen to almost every CEO of these companies, they say they're not producing anything compared to what's needed.

因为其他所有人都希望内存再次成为一种容易获取的普通产品。他们希望内存便宜。他们不想要内存短缺。但美光、SK海力士和其他公司却在说:“天哪,我们现在赚的钱比以往任何时候都多。”而且根据上一季度的情况,这种增长会持续到明年。

Because everyone else wants memory to become an easily accessible or common product again. They want it to be cheap. They don't want memory loss. But Micron, SK Hynix and the rest are saying, "Oh my God, we're making more money now than we ever have."

And it will continue to grow until next year, based on last quarter.

那么,这意味着什么?在2027财年,公司当前预期的每股收益为175.61美元。在今天股价下跌之后,这意味着市盈率为3.8倍。这在股市中通常见不到。它便宜到让你不禁想问,到底发生了什么。

So, what does this mean? In fiscal year 2027, the company's current earnings per share are expected to be $175.61. After today's share price decline, this indicates a P/E ratio of 3.8.

This is not usually seen in the stock market. It's so cheap that you'll wonder what's really going on.

基本上,如果你想知道它目前为什么是这个定价,那是因为人们认为公司赚的钱超过了它应有的水平。也许在2年、3年或4年之后,每股收益会再次大幅下降。他们可能不得不再次削减利润率,而这只是一段短暂的超额收入。

从长期来看,也许10到20年后,这肯定会在某个时点成真。

Basically, if you want to know why it's currently priced like this, it's because people think the company is making more money than it needs to. And maybe after 2, 3 or 4 years, earnings per share will drop significantly again.

They may have to cut margins again, and this is only a short period of extra income. And in the long term, perhaps 10 to 20 years from now, this will definitely be true at some point.

让经济的其他部分承受内存短缺,这完全不理想。但看好美光这类公司的人说,市场已经发生了结构性变化。因为现在AI数据中心和Nvidia这样的公司会需要这种对内存的高需求。这可能是真的,而且对明年或后年来说,这看起来确实是真的。

Having a memory deficit for the rest of the economy is not at all ideal. But those who are positive about companies like Micron say that there has been a structural change in the market.

Because now AI data centers and companies like Nvidia will need this high demand for memory. And that might be true, and it certainly seems to be true for next year or the year after that.

仔细看看美光正在发生什么,就会发现它并不是AI创新者或领导者。他们生产的仍然和几年前完全一样。只是有了一些轻微的改进。他们丝毫没有引领这场革命。他们是在利用形势,提高自己所生产产品的价格。

尤其是在DRAM方面。而且他们提高了各类产品的价格。

A closer look at what is happening at Micron reveals that it is not an AI innovator or leader. They are still making exactly what they were making a few years ago. There has been some slight improvement.

They are not leading this revolution in any way. They are taking advantage of the situation and increasing the prices of the products they manufacture. Especially in the case of DRAM.

And they have increased the prices of all kinds of products.

数据中心正在成为他们业务的一大部分,云服务整体也是如此。然而,这些都是老业务领域,他们现在对这些领域收取天价。移动端。这就是你的iPhone更贵的原因。这就是你买笔记本电脑时感觉更贵的原因。

这一切都是因为内存价格上涨。而原因在于,这个几年前还非常小的数据中心业务,现在已经变得非常庞大。所以,他们需要它,并且通过它赚得最多。正因如此,他们愿意比别人付更多的钱。

Data centers are becoming a big part of their business, and so are cloud services in general. However, these are all old business areas, for which they are now charging sky-high prices.

Mobile. This is why your iPhone costs more. This is why when you buy a laptop, it feels more expensive. All this is happening due to the rising price of RAM. And the reason for this is that this data center business, which was very small a few years ago, has now become very big.

So, they need it and they are making the most money using it. That's why, they are willing to pay more than others.

所以,尽管美光股票在过去5年上涨了825%,它现在看起来可能是一笔很棒的投资。现在这15.29%的跌幅看起来非常有吸引力。

So, even though Micron stock has risen 825% in the last 5 years, it may seem like a great investment right now. This 15.29% drop now looks very attractive.

再说一次,让我用数字来解释这件事。整个公司,也就是按今天股价计算的市值,是7620亿美元。他们在最新一个季度产生了328.6亿美元的自由现金流。如果他们全年保持这个速度且不增长,那将是1310亿美元的自由现金流。

这意味着公司的交易价格是其自由现金流的5.8倍。

Again, let me explain the matter with numbers. The entire company, that is, its market value at today's share price, is $762 billion. They generated $32.86 billion in free cash flow in the latest quarter.

If they maintain this pace for the entire year and don't grow, that would be $131 billion in free cash flow. This means the company is trading at 5.8 times its free cash flow.

这看起来可能非常便宜,但风险在于,如果内存危机以某种方式得到解决,他们无法再收取像现在这样的价格,这项业务的收入将大幅下降。

This may seem very cheap, but the risk is that if the memory crisis is somehow resolved and they cannot charge the same prices as they do now, the income from this business will decrease significantly.

作为一个AI追随者,我认为将需要重大的算法改进,使推理训练AI代理所需的内存大大减少。世界上最优秀的公司,所有正在构建超级智能的AI实验室和大型科技公司,都专注于解决这个内存问题,因为这对他们来说已经变得太昂贵了。

所以,整个供应链都有可能发生创新。也许Nvidia有一项创新,下一代设计将使用更少的内存。或者Anthropic和OpenAI,他们可以用自己的超级智能解决像纳维-斯托克斯方程或数学这样的复杂问题,然后说,解决内存问题。

所有这些都可能发生。这些很可能会发生。令人惊讶的是,需求可能如此之高,以至于即使这一切都发生了,美光也可能存活下来。谁知道呢?这是投资美光的一个风险。

As an AI follower, I believe that major algorithmic improvements will be needed so that inference training AI agents require much less memory. The best companies in the world, all the AI labs and big tech companies that are building superintelligence, are focused on solving this memory problem because it has become too expensive for them.

So, there is potential for innovation to occur throughout the supply chain. Maybe Nvidia has an innovation where the next generation design will use less memory. Or Anthropic and OpenAI, they can use their superintelligence to solve complex problems like Navier-Stokes or math, and say, solve the memory problem.

All of this can happen. These are likely to happen. Surprisingly, demand may be so high that Micron may survive even after all this happens. Who knows? This is a risk when investing in Micron.

观察点

在内存价格持续高企的情况下,毛利率能否维持在最近一个季度的86.8%附近
利润率维持在86.8%附近
未来几个季度Micron季度财报
支撑低估值论点;利润率下滑将意味着盈利下降

这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断

Dividend Data 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

跨洋听风