$MU · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-09
尽管单日下跌13%、一个月内跌约35%，Micron仍然便宜得离谱：远期市盈率仅3.4，而其合理价值为153.10美元，是68美元股价的两倍多；需求驱动因素依然完好，且连续两个季度营业利润率超过80%。增长势必放缓，选举引发的对数据中心的审视可能成为触发因素，因此短期内将出现波动；他看多，近期已买入，若股价守住可能加仓。
逐段跳播
美光（Micron）的股价今天下跌了近13%。过去五天里它已下跌超过25%，过去一个月里下跌了近35%。因此，许多投资者感到担忧并问道：“美光的股价为什么在暴跌？”
Micron's stock fell by nearly 13% today. It has fallen by more than 25% over the past five days and by nearly 35% in the last month. Therefore, many investors are worried and asking: "Why is Micron's stock collapsing ?"
美国大选的结果是否让美光股票成为我们应该抛掉并回避的对象？数据中心建设放缓等等所带来的这些连锁影响都是什么？“所以，关于美光有很多要讨论的，我想在这个视频里和大家分享其中一些细节。
我会分享我对美光的最新看法，以及我对未来买入、持有还是卖出的想法。”
Do the results of the US elections make Micron stock something we should get rid of and avoid? What are all these repercussions resulting from the slowdown in the construction of data centers and so on?
"So, there's a lot to discuss about Micron, and I wanted to share some of those details with you here in this video. I'll share my updated view of Micron and what I think about buying, holding, or selling for the future.
我还认为，重要的是看大局，并从2026年全年整体来评估美光的股票。而且要记住，它仍然上涨了143%。它已较历史高点大幅下跌。
I also think it's important to look at the big picture and evaluate Micron's stock for 2026 overall. And remember, it's still up 143%. It's significantly down from its all-time high.
记住，它曾一度以每股1,250美元交易，如果你还记得，我当时做了几个视频，提出那是获利了结、减仓的好时机。现在，它的交易价是697美元。较那个历史高点下跌了近50%。
Remember, at one point it was trading at $1,250 a share, and if you recall, I made several videos back then suggesting it was a good time to take some profits and reduce your positions.
Now, it's trading at $697. It's down almost 50% from that record high.
所以，美光目前面临的重大问题之一，而且是直接相关的，就是美国大选带来的冲击，不只是国会层面，还有那些带有敌意的本地提案。”
So, one of the big issues facing Micron right now, and directly, is the fallout from the US elections, not just for Congress, but also the local proposals that were hostile."
当然，这对美光这样的公司来说是个坏消息，因为它们受益于这些数据中心的建设速度。这推高了对组件的需求。而由于这些组件的供应无法……以同样的增长速度跟上，美光能够为其组件收取远高于正常情况下的价格。
因此，由于近年来其营收、利润和现金流大幅增长，其股价也随之飙升。
And of course, this is bad news for companies like Micron, which benefit from the speed at which these data centers are being built. It drives up the demand for components. And since the supply of these components can't...
At the same rate of growth , Micron is able to charge significantly higher prices for its components than it would under normal circumstances. Consequently, its stock price has skyrocketed as a result of the fact that its revenue, earnings, and cash flow have increased dramatically in recent years.
事实上，如果你看美光的营业利润率，过去12个月它处于75%的创纪录高位。而在最近两个季度，公司报告的营业利润率超过80%。我可以告诉你，在我近八年全职从事这一领域、覆盖数百家公司、研究数千份季度财务报表的经历中，我从未见过一家公司报告80%的季度营业利润率。
对我来说这是前所未有的。而我已覆盖过数千份季度财务报表。美光连续两个季度做到了这一点，而且他们还在预测下一季度的数字。这很可能是连续第三次。这就是这项业务正在经历的繁荣规模。
In fact, if you look at Micron's operating margin , it's at a record high of 75% over the past 12 months. And in the two most recent quarters, the company reported operating margins exceeding 80%.
I can tell you that in my nearly eight years of working full-time in this field, covering hundreds of companies, and researching thousands of quarterly financial statements, I've never seen a company report an 80% quarterly operating margin.
That's unprecedented for me. And I've covered thousands of quarterly financial statements. Micron has done it for two consecutive quarters, and they're forecasting their numbers for the next quarter.
It's likely to be the third time in a row. That's the scale of the boom this business is experiencing.
所以，我一直说这是不可持续的。这种情况不会持续下去，但只要它还在继续，投资者就能在短期内利用这些数字获利，这很好。这种增长必然会放缓。很难预测这次放缓的触发因素会是什么，但现在它已经来了。
国会和参议院领导层的变动，可能就是导致对这些数据中心加强审查的原因。
So, I've always said that this is unsustainable. This situation won't last , but as long as It's continuing, which is great for investors to take advantage of these numbers in the short term.
This growth is bound to slow . It was difficult to predict what the trigger for this slowdown would be, but it's here now . A change in leadership in Congress and the Senate could be what causes increased scrutiny of these data centers.
这就是对这些产品和组件需求的基本原因，而这一点并没有改变。这对美光来说是好消息。”半导体组件公司的股价正在暴跌。所以，在我看来，美光股票本来就已经便宜，而考虑到最近的抛售，它现在便宜得离谱。
它的远期市盈率只有3.4倍。只有3.4倍，对吧？
That's the fundamental reason for the demand for these products and components, and that hasn't changed. And that's good news for Micron." And semiconductor component companies are seeing their share prices plummet.
So, in my opinion, Micron stock was already cheap, and given the recent sell-off, it's ridiculously cheap now . It's trading at a forward P/E ratio of only 3.4. Just 3.4, right?
当你审视一家企业、看到人们对其未来前景的担忧，然后再看估值，这两者是有区别的，而估值并没有假设这项业务会一飞冲天。估值已经计入了它是一项周期性业务、繁荣期不会永远持续这一事实，所以估值从未达到暗示大家会集体涌向无休止上涨趋势的程度。
它从未到过那个地步。市场价格可能上涨了，但那种上涨是基于盈利和现金流的上升，而不是因为投资者认为它会持续多年。”长期来看。
There's a difference when you look at a business and see concern about its future prospects, and then you look at the valuation, and the valuation wasn't assuming that the business was going to soar.
The valuation already factored in the fact that it's a cyclical business, and that boom times don't last forever, so the valuation never reached the point where it suggested a collective rush toward an endless uptrend.
It never got there . The market price may have risen, but that rise was based on rising earnings and cash flow, not because investors thought it would continue for years." Long ahead.
所以你甚至可以看到我对美光股票的公允价值估计为每股153.10美元，是当前市场价格68美元的两倍多。所以我认为这只股票被高估了。
So you can even see my fair value estimate for Micron stock at $153.10 per share, which is more than double the current market price of $68. So I think this stock is overvalued.
不过，我认为未来几周和几个月里，我们会看到很多关于数据中心潜在影响及其建设放缓的头条新闻。我预计你会把这一点纳入你这里的预期。但即便如此，我认为美光股票在这些价位上仍然很有价值。
However, I think we'll see a lot of headlines in the next few weeks and months about the potential impact of data centers and the slowdown in their construction. I expect you'll factor that into your expectations here .
But even if that's the case, I think Micron stock still represents great value at these prices.
我信心足够，最近把美光加入了投资组合。我现在持有美光股票，所以我看好公司的未来。短期内会有波动。我完全预料到了。但我喜欢这家公司。我喜欢它的风险回报平衡。如果价格在更长一段时间内维持在这些水平附近，我可能会加仓。
I felt confident enough to recently add Micron to my portfolio. I now own Micron stock, so I'm bullish on the company's future. The near term will be volatile. I fully expect that.
But I like this company. I like its risk-reward balance . And if the price stays around these levels for a longer period, I might increase my stake.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 15 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。