NBIS 维持持有评级，并非买入机会：DCF 合理价值 225 美元对 186 美元股价，仅剩 21% 上行空间，低于他对这只风险最高的股票之一所要求的 10-20% 安全边际；同时存在自由现金流为负、2500 亿美元资本需求及摊薄风险，以及现货市场敞口。
逐段跳播
Nebios有一个雄心勃勃的目标：到2030年达到5吉瓦的产能。另一方面，管理团队表示，他们需要2500亿美元才能实现这一目标。
Nebios has an ambitious goal of reaching a capacity of 5 gigawatts by 2030. On the other hand, the management team has indicated that they need $250 billion to achieve this goal.
因此，我想讨论其中一些进展、它们对Nebios Group投资者可能意味着什么、我对该集团股票在当前市场价格下的看法，以及今天股价下跌超过10%时这是否是一个买入机会。
Therefore, I wanted to discuss some of these developments and what they might mean for investors in the Nebios Group, my opinion on the group's stock at current market prices, and whether this is a buying opportunity when the price drops by more than 10% today.
看看Nebios Group这里的价格走势，今天下跌了10.4%，原因是人们越来越担心这些公司为实现增加数据中心产能的雄心目标而需要承担的利息支出。
Look at the price action here for the Nebios Group, which is down 10.4% today amid growing concerns about the interest expenses these companies will need to meet their ambitious goals of increasing data center capacity.
在2500亿美元的资本需求下，这笔金额的利息成本将大幅上升。此外，可用资本可能无法获得。问题不仅在于高利息支出，还在于随着贷款机构越来越担心这些公司偿还债务的能力，它们可能会限制提供的一部分可用贷款。
因此，该公司可能无法在2030年前实现其5吉瓦的目标，或者可能不得不发行股票，而不是诉诸债务市场来筹集资本。
With capital needs of $250 billion, the interest cost on that amount will rise significantly. In addition, available capital may not be available. The problem is not just the high interest expenses, but as lenders become increasingly concerned about these companies' ability to repay their debts, they may restrict some of the available loans they provide.
Therefore, the company may not be able to achieve its 5 GW target by 2030, or it may have to sell shares instead of resorting to debt markets to raise capital.
然而，如果从更大的格局来看，Nebios Group在2026年表现异常出色，其股价上涨了超过121%。股价只是在最近几周才遭遇逆风。
However, if we look at the bigger picture, the Nebios Group is performing exceptionally well in 2026, with its stock rising by more than 121%. The stock price has only faced headwinds in recent weeks.
同样重要的是要记住，Nebios Group是世界上增长最快的公司之一。2026年，跟踪该公司的华尔街分析师预计其营收将从5.5亿美元跃升至33.4亿美元。这意味着增长超过506%。
It is also important to remember that the Nebios Group is one of the fastest growing companies in the world. In 2026, Wall Street analysts who follow the company expect its revenue to jump from $550 million to $3.34 billion. This represents an increase of over 506%.
分析师预计这种好时光将持续下去，估计显示其营收将在2027年增长268%，达到122.9亿美元。而且增长不会止步于此，因为分析师预计其营收将在2028年再增长87%，达到229.8亿美元。
Analysts expect these good times to continue, with estimates indicating that its revenue will grow by 268% in 2027 to reach $12.29 billion that year. And the growth won't stop there, as analysts expect its revenues to increase by another 87% in 2028 to reach $22.98 billion.
这对Nebios Group来说是巨大的增长，一旦数据中心的产能建成，客户就在等着购买。但当我们审视长期需求时，问号就出现了。长期需求会像今天一样高吗？到2030年供应又会在哪里？
This is substantial growth for the Nebios Group, and customers are waiting to buy once that capacity is built in the data centers. But question marks arise when we look at long-term demand.
Will long-term demand remain as high as it is today? And where will the supply be in 2030?
Nebius、CoreWave、Iron等公司正在努力建设额外的数据中心产能，此外Amazon、Microsoft、Meta、Oracle等公司也在花费数千亿美元建设更多数据中心产能。
这一类的供应正在急剧增加，这引发了投资者对长期供需平衡的疑问。
Nebius, CoreWave, Iron and others are working to build additional data center capacity, in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars that Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and others are spending to build more data center capacity.
The supply of this category is increasing dramatically, and this is raising questions among investors about the long-term equation.
与CoreWave相比，Nebeus Group的资产负债表要好得多。它有超过100亿美元的长期债务，资产负债表上持有约80亿美元的现金和短期投资。
Compared to CoreWave, the Nebeus Group has a much better balance sheet. It has long-term debts exceeding $10 billion and holds approximately $8 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet.
关于Nebius Group的另一个有趣之处是，它将其更大一部分产能分配给现货市场销售。这意味着它不会签约出售其数据中心的全部产能。它保留一些数据中心产能，以便按当月、当季或当年的市场价格出售。
Another interesting point about the Nebius Group is that it allocates a larger portion of its capacity to spot market sales. What this means is that it does not contract to sell the entire capacity of its data centers.
It leaves some data center capacity available for sale at the prevailing market prices for that month, quarter, or year.
这与其它服务提供商形成对比，它们更愿意提前锁定大部分产能，以确保更清楚地了解其产品的需求和平均售价。Nebius集团选择不确定性，因为市场对其有利。需求超过供应，只要这种情况持续，Nebius就能从每兆瓦数据中心产能更高的售价中受益。
This is in contrast to other service providers who prefer to secure much of their capacity in advance to ensure greater knowledge of the demand for their products and the average selling price.
The Nebius group chooses uncertainty because the market works in its favor. There is demand that exceeds supply, and as long as this remains the case, Nebius will be able to benefit from higher selling prices per megawatt of data center capacity that it sells.
但如果这一平衡逆转，Nebius Group将更容易受到价格变化和波动的影响，因为它通过长期合同出售的产能比例较小。这是该行业投资者应该注意的一个有趣之处。
But if this equation were reversed, the Nebius Group would be more vulnerable to price changes and fluctuations because it sells a smaller portion of its capacity through long-term contracts.
This is an interesting point that investors in this sector should take note of.
基于这些最新进展，我更新了“Nebeus”集团的贴现现金流估值。请记住，这考虑了我预计公司从今天到非常遥远的未来将产生的现金流金额。
Based on these recent developments, I have updated the discounted cash flow valuation account for the "Nebeus" group. Remember that this takes into account the amount of cash flow I expect the company to generate between today and the very distant future.
我预计未来几年自由现金流将继续亏损。对于Nebeus Group，我估计今年自由现金流为负175亿美元，明年为负230亿美元，2028年为负250亿美元。
I anticipate continued losses in free cash flow over the next few years. For the Nebeus Group, I estimate negative free cash flow of $17.5 billion this year, negative $23 billion next year, and negative $25 billion in 2028.
所有这些负面影响都是因为公司花费过多建设新的数据中心产能，其支出超过了公司业务运营产生的现金流增长。如果它继续沿着到2030年建设5吉瓦数据中心产能的雄心之路前进，这种情况很可能会持续下去。
All of this negative impact is due to the company spending too much to build new data center capacity, which outpaces the increased cash flow generated by the company's business operations.
If it continues on its ambitious path to build 5 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2030, this is likely to remain the case.
当然，未来的钱对我们来说比今天口袋里的钱价值更低。因此，我用一个折现率来折现这些未来现金流，我和市场称之为加权平均资本成本。这个加权平均资本成本包括公司的债务成本，最近几周随着无风险美国国债利率上升，该成本已经上升，而像Nebius Group这样的公司相对于美国国债存在溢价或利差交易。
因此，如果美国国债价格上涨50个基点，Nebius Group的股价很可能也会上涨50个基点，根据情况甚至可能更多。
Of course, money in the future will be worth less to us than the money in our pockets today. Therefore, I discount those future cash flows at a discount rate, which I and the market call the weighted average cost of capital.
This weighted average cost of capital includes the cost of the company’s debt, which has risen in recent weeks as interest rates on risk-free U.S. government bonds have increased, and companies like Nebius Group are trading at a premium to, or at a spread to, U.S. government bonds.
Therefore, if the price of US government bonds rises by 50 basis points, the price of Nebius Group stock is likely to rise by 50 basis points as well, and possibly more depending on the situation.
尽管利息成本很高，我计算出Nebeus Group股票的合理价值为225美元。当前市场价格为186美元。因此，我计算出“Nebeus Group”股票有21%的上涨空间。
Despite those high interest costs, I calculated a fair value of $225 for Nebeus Group stock. The current market price is $186. Thus, I calculate a 21% increase for the "Nebeus Group" stock.
今年早些时候，我曾把 Nebius Group 的股票评为买入机会，但在年初股价大幅上涨之后，我将其下调为持有。基于这些评估，我将维持对 Nebius Group 股票的“持有”评级。
Earlier this year, I rated Nebius Group stock as a buy opportunity, but after the stock price rose significantly at the beginning of the year, I downgraded it to a hold. Following these assessments, I will maintain my rating on Nebius Group's stock at "Hold".
我知道，我们算出的结果比当前市场价格高出21%。不过，在我做的大多数现金流折现估值中，我通常会保留5%到10%的安全边际。对于像 Nebius Group 这样属于市场上风险最高的股票之一，我会提高这个安全边际，不是5%到10%，而是保持在10%到20%。
因此，仅仅20%的差距，对我来说还不足以让我确信这只股票被低估了。把这只股票与它的风险相比——它的风险几乎是市场上所有股票中最高的——目前在我看来，它并不像是一个有吸引力的买入机会。
Now, I know that we have calculated a 21% increase compared to the current market price. However, I usually maintain a safety margin of 5 to 10% in most of these discounted cash flow valuations.
For a company like Nebius Group, which is one of the riskiest stocks in the market, I increase this margin of safety. Instead of 5 to 10%, keep it at 10 to 20%. Therefore, at a difference of only 20%, it is not a sufficient decrease in value for me to feel confident that the stock is undervalued.
When comparing the stock to the risks, which are almost the highest among any stock in the market, it does not seem to me like an attractive buying opportunity at the moment.