NBIS 在约 175 美元处被低估,而合理价值约 200 美元,这得益于 454% 的营收增长、调整后 EBITDA 转正、与 Microsoft/Meta 的大额合同以及 Nvidia 的支持;但沉重的资本开支和债务带来了执行风险——能否将合同转化为可持续利润尚不确定,因此他现在不会买入股票,而更倾向于卖出看跌期权。
逐段跳播
下一只股票,也就是我们的第二只股票,是 Nebias,它在交易所的代码是 NBIS。Nebias 是另一家我认为在查看其股价之前,必须先充分了解其业务本质的公司。Nebias 的核心工作是构建一个面向人工智能的集成云平台。
它为企业提供图形处理器、数据中心、网络、存储,以及训练和运行人工智能所必需的软件基础设施。
The next stock, which is our second stock , is Nebias, its symbol on the stock exchange is NBIS. Nebias is another company where I think it's essential to understand the nature of its business well before looking at its stock price.
At its core, Nebias is working on building an integrated cloud platform for artificial intelligence. It provides companies with graphics processing units, data centers, networks, storage, and the software infrastructure necessary to train and operate artificial intelligence.
所以,我们再一次谈到的是AI热潮背后的基础设施。是的,我知道我选了很多AI股票,因为你也知道,它们本周出现了大幅下跌。本周我们看到AI股票大幅下跌,这就是为什么我说,在我看来,这些股票被低估了。
So, once again, we are talking about the infrastructure behind the AI boom. Yes, I know I'm picking a lot of AI stocks because, as you know, they've seen a big decline this week.
This week we have seen a massive decline in AI stocks , and that is why I say these stocks are undervalued, in my opinion.
但让我注意到Nebias的是这一点:一些全球最大的科技公司正投入数十亿美元使用它的基础设施。当然,我从Nebius股价还在90美元左右时就是它的投资者了,后来它涨到了200美元以上。
但按它当前的价格,再结合技术分析来看,你会发现它当前的价格相比它达到的最高价是多么有吸引力。
But here’s what made me pay attention to Nebias: Some of the world’s largest technology companies are investing billions of dollars in using its infrastructure. Of course, I've been an investor in Nebius since its stock price was around $90 , and then it went over $200.
But at its current price, and after reviewing the technical analysis, you will notice how attractive its current price is compared to the highest price it reached.
Nebios与Microsoft签有一份为期五年的大规模协议,价值约174亿美元。该公司还与Meta建立了牢固的关系。Microsoft和Meta,多好啊!Nebeus曾与Meta达成一份价值约29亿美元的协议,随后又在2026年宣布了一份为期五年、价值约270亿美元的额外协议。
Nebios has a massive five-year agreement with Microsoft , worth approximately $17.4 billion. The company also established a strong relationship with Meta. Microsoft and Meta, how wonderful!
Nebeus had entered into an agreement with Meta worth approximately $2.9 billion, and then in 2026 announced an additional agreement worth approximately $27 billion over five years.
然后是Nvidia。Nvidia直接向Nebius投资了20亿美元,这是Nvidia的一种支持,并且它与该公司建立了战略合作伙伴关系,帮助扩展其AI云基础设施。所以对我来说,这是一个非常重要的确认,说明Nebeus会长期存在下去。
Then there's Nvidia. Nvidia has invested $2 billion directly in Nebius, which is a form of support from Nvidia, and has entered into a strategic partnership with the company to help expand its AI cloud infrastructure .
So , for me, this is a very important confirmation that Nebeus is here to stay for a very long time .
而当我看到这只股票下跌,你也知道,跌幅超过8%?技术层面我们稍后再谈,但这太疯狂了。我在各种意义上都很疯狂。所以我非常兴奋。
And when I see the stock decline, as you know, by more than 8%? We'll get into the technical aspects later, but it's crazy. I'm crazy in every sense of the word. So, I'm extremely excited.
现在,Microsoft需要AI基础设施,Meta也需要AI基础设施,而Nvidia显然比几乎任何人都更了解这个市场,也许比所有人都更了解。这三家都愿意向Nebeus投入巨额资金。
所以,这里的基本投资前提非常简单。对人工智能的需求持续增长,大型云计算公司需要海量算力,而Nebius把自己定位为提供这些算力的公司之一。
Now, Microsoft needs AI infrastructure, Meta also needs AI infrastructure, and Nvidia clearly understands this market better than almost anyone, perhaps better than anyone at all.
All three are willing to invest huge sums of money in Nebeus. So, the basic investment premise here is very simple. Demand for artificial intelligence continues to grow, and giant cloud computing companies need massive computing capabilities , and Nebius positions itself as one of the companies that provides these capabilities .
上个季度,Nebeus实现了约5.82亿美元的收入,同比增长454%,令人印象深刻。是的,难以置信。现在,我们也开始注意到Nebius的营业利润有了显著改善。息税折旧及调整后摊销前利润约为2.36亿美元,而去年同期为亏损2100万美元。这正是我对一家增长如此之快的公司所期望的。
In the last quarter, Nebeus generated revenues of approximately $582 million , an impressive year-over-year increase of 454% . Yes, it's unbelievable. Now, we are also beginning to notice a significant improvement in Nebius' operating income.
Net profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and adjusted amortization was approximately $236 million, compared to a loss of $21 million in the same quarter last year. This is exactly what I would hope for from a company that is growing this fast.
现在,不仅有大幅的收入增长,而且随着Nebia扩张,我们已经看到运营效率明显改善,但和Korwef一样,存在一个问题。建设人工智能基础设施极其昂贵,甚至贵得离谱。Nebia仅第二季度就在房地产、设备和无形资产上花费了约57亿美元。截至该季度末,其非流动债务约为85亿美元。
Now, not only is there massive revenue growth, but we are already seeing a marked improvement in operational efficiency as Nebia expands, but as with Korwef, there is a problem.
Building an artificial intelligence infrastructure is extremely expensive, even outrageously so. Nebia spent approximately $5.7 billion on real estate, equipment and intangible assets in the second quarter alone.
Its non-current debt amounted to approximately $8.5 billion by the end of the quarter.
所以,正如我们提到的,存在一些不利因素,但目前考虑到市场下跌,我认为这只股票被低估了。还有一个我相比其他AI基础设施公司更看重的关键区别,那就是Nippia还拥有约80亿美元现金。
所以,是的,它确实拥有强劲的现金资产负债表,或者说是强劲的资产负债表,以及季度末强劲的现金余额。
So, as we mentioned, there are some downsides, but at the moment, given the market downturn, I think the stock is undervalued . There is also a key difference that I prefer compared to other AI infrastructure companies, which is that Nippia also had about $8 billion in cash.
So, yes, she did indeed have a strong cash balance sheet , or rather a strong balance sheet, as well as a strong cash balance at the end of the quarter.
是的,他们正在花巨额资金并背上巨额债务,但他们是在实现收入和近400%增长的同时这样做的。息税折旧摊销前利润已经转正,而且他们已从Microsoft和Meta等公司获得了数百亿美元的长期承诺。
这就是为什么我认为Nebia在当前水平上很有意思。
Yes, they are spending huge amounts of money and incurring massive debt , but they are doing so while generating revenue and growth of nearly 400%. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization have turned positive, and they have secured tens of billions of dollars in long-term commitments from companies such as Microsoft and Meta.
That's why I think Nebia is interesting at these levels.
问题不在于是否存在对基础设施的需求,这一点相当明显。真正的问题是:管理层能否足够高效地建设所有这些能力,把这些巨额合同转化为可持续的利润和现金流?这也是为什么我也不想在这些价格买入Nebia股票。我在寻找的是卖出看跌期权。
The question is not whether there is a demand for infrastructure; that is quite obvious. The real question is: Can management build all of these capabilities efficiently enough to convert these massive contracts into sustainable profits and cash flows ?
That's why I also don't want to buy Nebia shares at these prices. What I'm looking for is a put option sale.
好,这是Ndebele过去六个月的图表。录制这段视频时,股价下跌了7%。目前股价低于每股175美元,我认为这只股票是非常有吸引力的投资机会。如你所见,股价已跌破布林带水平。布林带指标在183,而股价在174。因此,我认为当前股价代表着极佳的投资机会。
Okay, here's the Ndebele chart for the past six months. The stock price dropped by 7% while this video was being recorded . Its price is now less than $175 per share, and I believe the stock is a very attractive investment opportunity.
As you can see, the stock has fallen below the Bollinger Band level. The Bollinger Band indicator is at 183, while the stock price is at 174. Therefore, I believe the current stock price represents an excellent investment opportunity.
说实话,我对Ndipla的股票并不太乐观,但我认为它的真实价值在每股200美元左右。因此,我不需要过度乐观,也能从一只被低估的股票中获得不错的利润。
To be honest, I'm not very optimistic about Ndipla's stock, but I think its true value is around $200 per share. Therefore, I don't need to be overly optimistic to make a good profit from a stock that is undervalued.
我认为市场存在显著波动,这让现在投资它很有意思,因为股价下跌7%并不常见。至少在我个人交易的股票中并不常见。我很少看到一只股票下跌7%。所以,当我看到像Ndipla这样的公司处于如此低位时,我觉得它在170多美元的区间非常有意思。
I think there are significant fluctuations in the market, which makes investing in it interesting right now, because a 7% drop in stock prices is not common. At least it's not common among the stocks I personally trade.
I rarely see a stock drop by 7%. So, when I see a company like Ndipla at such a low point , I find it very interesting in the 170s range.
观察点
这个频道对 $NBIS 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。