NBIS 看涨：需求超过供给，因此定价没有下跌，Nebius 可以在数年内自主定价。2027 年将到位的 1 吉瓦 Vera Rubin 算力有望带来数百亿美元营收，其执行力优于同行；为约 300 亿美元的资本开支提供资金需要更多资本或稀释。

So is Nebia.

It's bullish. Um, I I think pricing is exciting. I'm not really worried about this Elon uh these Elon comments. It's not going to change the customer demand that we're seeing from Nebius.

I mean, we just saw the update at GTC. They can't service the demand if they wanted to.

um endgame is going to be a little bit different, but I think that we have years of uh you know, Nebius essentially deciding what the price is and customers happy to pay it and um yeah, I think for now it's good.

But based on Neb's comments today at GTC Berlin, pricing is not coming down. There is just too much demand, not enough supply, but they are trying to fix those tasks, right? As as Arcadia said.

And then um the CRO said that they have a gigawatt worth of Vera Rubins coming online in 27.

A gigawatt worth of Vera Rubin is tens of billions of dollars in in potential revenue. I am not worried about the good companies in this space, but yeah, maybe you should be worried about the companies that cannot get enough GPUs online on time or build good data centers, I guess.

Nebius has been an amazing operator.

it's like in the 80% does that include core weaver nebas I I think they're in the 20% along with the hyperscalers and spax and Oracle

there's quite a big differentiation between even Corweave and Nebius and let's say IN which a lot of people say is third place and they're like I think there's a huge execution difference just between those three names.

this was that comment that Neil was talking about from Neba CRO like what next? Well, what I loved about the keynote was he actually also spent a fair amount of time about Verus and Vera Rubins are critical to the industry.

Right now, folks are um excited about the next generation compute. We're hearing it from we heard it mostly from model builders, but now we're also hearing it from the broader portion of the market.

So, getting him getting Jensen to share, you know, what's valuable and why Veros are important was super helpful. Um, we have a gigawatt worth of virus coming next year and already have significant demand for them and it's great to be having Nvidia leading the way making sure that folks know that this is an important next step for all of them.

They're going to bring a gigawatt of Vera Rubins online.

yeah, I mean she was really getting hit here after hours, but once again it based on SpaceX, based on meta, it does not feel like if the semis are dumping, it's dumping because of big tech. It feels a lot more like macro.

This tiny company that's worth How much is Nebus worth right now? 44 43 >> 43 billion a gigawatt of Vera Rubin's you know if you were to essentially say hey we're going to sell that on short-term deals similar to SpaceX like that's 50 billion 4550 billion maybe even higher because we've never seen Vera Rubin uh Vera Rubin sold that spot really we've only seen uh GB300's as maybe the highest spot price so it could maybe be freaking 60 million per megawatt on a on one gigawatt in 2027 you're looking at anywhere anywhere between 45 to $60 billion of new revenue per year.

Yeah. But it's coming online which means people need to understand you might exit. I mean the exit rate might be that. Yeah. Yeah. If also if they can charge the whole gigawatt at a at a premium price.

But this goes back to what we said yesterday. I mean the exit r for next year could very well be well above $30 billion.

Do you think they're going to have to dilute or raise a lot of debt to bring even half of that gigawatt online or you think they have enough uh prepaid contracts, take or pay stuff that'll

No, they got to they they said they're going to raise more money just based on the backlog that they have today. So ho how much realistically should we expect in dilution or or raising of capital from Nebus next year if you had to guess like and take the 1 gawatt as a reference 50% of it that's what 25 billion if they could charge how much does that cost like it's got to be at least another

let's see what the capex estimates are as of right now we are looking at uh 30 around close to 30 billion I'd say next year which probably will be bigger bigger than that. 30 they would have to raise either via dilution or convertible notes, right?

How much cash do they have right now? >> Uh eight bill >> eight >> eight >> with eight billion in long-term debt. But again it also depends on how much of the future capex is prepayments.

If if it's again increasing then then the core business should start to to sponsor let's say the the buildout by second half of 27 or so slowly but surely.