$NBIS · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-27
NBIS 为买入：上行概率 55%，内在价值 248 美元对比 160 美元的市场价格；资产负债表强于 CoreWeave，长期债务 100 亿美元但现金超过 80 亿美元。按 3.5 倍远期销售额对比 CoreWeave 的 1.1 倍，两者在 DCF 上看起来低估程度相近；仅适合能承受风险的投资者。
逐段跳播
由于投资者对Coreweave和Nebius等新兴云计算公司的资产负债表以及该行业的长期单位经济效益日益担忧，这些公司的股价正在下跌。
Shares of emerging cloud computing companies such as Coreweave and Nebius are declining as a result of growing investor concerns about their balance sheets and the sector's long-term unit economics.
所以，投资者在问我这些公司到底怎么了，以及实际上我认为哪一家更值得买入，是Nebius还是Coreweave？
So, investors are asking me what's going on with these companies , and in fact, which one I consider a better buy, Nebius or Coreweave?
最让投资者对Coreweave和Nebius感到兴奋的，是它们惊人的营收增长，或者更准确地说，是预计未来将继续保持的惊人增长。
What most excited investors about Coreweave and Nebius was the tremendous revenue growth, or rather, the tremendous growth that is expected to continue in the future.
同样，Nebius Group也展现出加速的营收增长，而且这一增长预计将会持续。事实上，如果我们看看跟踪Coreweave和Nebius Group的华尔街分析师的预测，他们预计这种强劲的营收增长将会持续。
Similarly, the Nebius Group is showing accelerated revenue growth, and this growth is expected to continue . In fact, if we look at the estimates of Wall Street analysts who follow Coreweave and Nebius Group, they expect this strong revenue growth to continue.
同样，华尔街分析师预测Nebius今年将实现33亿美元营收，而这一数字预计到2028财年将激增至229亿美元。
Similarly, Wall Street analysts predict Nebius will generate $3.3 billion in revenue this year, with that figure expected to explode to $22.9 billion by fiscal year 2028.
但投资者的担忧正是从这里开始的。诚然，需求超过供给，而且这种情况很可能在2027年和2028年继续维持。但2029年、2030年、2031年和2032年又会怎样？该行业会出现供给过剩吗？
会出现供给过剩吗，尤其是考虑到从现在到2029年，建设这些产品和数据中心的成本估计高达数万亿美元？担忧正是从这里开始升级的。
But this is where investors' concerns begin. Certainly , demand exceeds supply, and this is likely to remain the case for 2027 and 2028 . But what will happen in the years 2029, 2030, 2031 and 2032 ?
Will the sector experience an oversupply? Will there be an oversupply, especially given that the costs of building these products and data centers are estimated at trillions of dollars between now and 2029? This is where concerns begin to escalate.
风险之所以叠加，是因为这些公司正在大量举债，以支持它们建设这些数据中心的投资。如果它想实现预期中的营收增长，就必须建设这些数据中心。
The risks are compounded because these companies are borrowing heavily to support their investments in building these data centers . It needs to build these data centers if it wants to achieve the revenue growth that it is projected to achieve.
它们拥有来自客户的价值数十亿美元且不断增长的订单储备，但除非建设更多数据中心，否则它们没有能力满足这一需求。因此，它们要确保获得更多的算力供应，以便出租给客户。确实，它们的资产负债表开始变得越来越紧张。
They have a growing order book from customers worth billions of dollars, but they do not have the capacity to meet this demand unless they build more data centers. Thus, they secure a greater supply of that computing power to rent to their clients.
Indeed, their balance sheets began to become increasingly constrained.
不过，Nebius的处境更好，其长期债务为100亿美元。
Nebius, however, is in a better position with long-term debt of $10 billion.
因此，同样重要的是要考虑它们预算中有多少现金和短期投资，以判断它们在不回头向投资者要更多钱的情况下还能撑多久。答案是，与它们的支出计划相比，并不多。
Therefore, it is also important to consider how much cash and short- term investments they have in the budget to see how long they can continue without going back to investors and asking for more money.
The answer is not much compared to their spending plans.
Nebius的资产负债表更好，不仅因为债务更低，还因为它们拥有超过80亿的更多现金和短期投资。所以，整体资产负债表对Nebius Group更有利，而且我应该说，得益于更少的债务和更多的现金，Nebius Group的财务状况要好得多。
Nebius has a better balance sheet not only because of lower debt, but they also have more cash and short- term investments of over 8 billion. So, the overall balance sheet is in favor of the Nebius Group, and the Nebius Group is in a much better financial position , I should say, thanks to less debt and more cash.
按远期市盈率衡量，Coreweave的股价只有Nebius Group价格的一小部分。Nebius Group的远期市盈率为3.5，而Coreweave的远期市盈率为1.1，
Coreweave shares are trading at a fraction of the price of the Nebius Group when measured by the price-to- forward ratio. The Nebius Group is trading at a forward price of 3.5, while Coreweave is trading at a forward price of 1.1,
这很可能是因为Coreweave的资产负债表承受的压力比Nebius Group更大。我们已经看到，Coreweave债务更多、现金更少，而这目前是投资者最大的担忧，所以这很可能是Coreweave与Nebius Group之间估值差异的一个主要因素。
likely because Coreweave's balance sheet is under greater pressure than the Nebius Group's. We have seen that Coreweave has more debt and less cash, and this is currently the biggest concern for investors, so this is likely to be a major factor in the valuation difference between Coreweave and the Nebius Group.
与此同时，用类似的计算方法，我估算Nebius Group有55%的上行概率，其内在价值为248美元，市场价格为160美元。
Meanwhile, using a similar calculation, I estimated a 55% upside probability for the Nebius Group with an intrinsic value of $248 and a market price of $160.
因此，就贴现现金流估值而言，两者非常相似。按当前市场价格，两者都被非常相似地低估了。然而，如果用市场倍数和远期市盈率来衡量，Coreweave似乎被显著低估，其估值只有Nebius Group的一小部分。
Therefore, with regard to the evaluation of discounted cash flow, the two are very similar. Both are very similarly undervalued at current market prices . However, when measured using a market multiples basis and a price-to- forward ratio, Coreweave appears to be significantly undervalued , at a fraction of the valuation of the Nebius Group.
要回答在 current market prices 下我认为哪一个是更好的买入这个问题，两者非常相似。这不是一个容易的决定。两者都被我评为买入机会。
To answer the question of which I consider the better purchase at current market prices, the two are very similar. It's not an easy decision. Both are rated by me as a buying opportunity.
10月28日，或者其实是10月23日，我也把Nepais Group的股票上调至“买入”评级，而我在几周前就已将Korwef评为“买入”。
On October 28, or actually on October 23, I upgraded Nepais Group's stock to " buy" as well, and I had rated Korwef as a " buy" several weeks ago.
我想提醒大家，这些股票只适合风险承受能力高的投资者考虑，因为它们属于你能买到的最具风险的投资之一。
I would like to remind everyone that these stocks should only be considered by investors with a high tolerance for risk, as they are among the riskiest investments you can buy.
这个频道对 $NBIS 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。