Netflix 是值得长期买入的标的，凭借全球营收增长、每股收益高速扩张和稳健的财务状况，其优势超过短期放缓和竞争担忧。
逐段跳播
第一只是 Netflix，我又买入了价值 2,000 美元的股票。在我们谈我为什么今天买入 Netflix 股票之前，我想先看看我目前的持仓情况，向你展示我在这家公司实际持有多少股票，因为我已经持有它很大一部分股份。
The first was Netflix, where I bought another $2,000 worth of shares . Before we get into the reasons why I bought Netflix shares today, I would first like to take a look at my current situation, to show you what I actually own in terms of shares of this company, because I already own a large stake in it .
Netflix 真正体现了我所寻找的那些特质。它是一家适合长期投资的公司。我买入 Netflix 股票并不是基于我对下个季度业绩的预期，那不是我分析的一部分。我关注的是未来 10 年或 20 年，看哪些公司能为股东创造巨额利润，哪些公司拥有实现显著增长的全球性机会。
Netflix truly embodies the qualities I'm looking for . It is a long- term investment company. I do not buy Netflix shares based on my expectations for next quarter's performance ; that is not part of my analysis.
I am focusing on the next 10 or 20 years to see which companies will generate huge profits for shareholders, and which have global opportunities for significant growth.
我在 Netflix 的投资目前价值 88,000 美元，这是一笔很大的投资。它是我在 Microsoft 之后的第八笔投资，占我投资组合的 6%。所以，我在 Netflix 上已经有相当大的持仓。
不过，我从这家公司获得的利润并不惊人；事实上还略有下降。我们稍后会谈到这一点，但原因是 Netflix 股价的大幅下跌。我的收益一度在 40,000 美元左右。现在降到了 16,000。
My investment in Netflix is currently worth $88,000, which is a huge investment. It is my eighth investment after Microsoft, and represents 6% of my investment portfolio. So, I already have a significant presence on Netflix.
However, my profits from this company were not amazing; in fact, they decreased slightly. We'll get to that later, but the reason is the sharp drop in Netflix's stock price . At one point, my earnings were around $40,000. Now we have reached 16,000.
即使价格高于平均买入价，我仍然买入 Netflix 股票。事实上，今天买入更多 Netflix 股票会抬高该公司的平均买入价，从而增加其价格继续下跌时蒙受损失的可能性。这是不利的一面。
今天我买入 Netflix 股票时，买入价高于平均买入价，这增加了蒙受损失的可能性，但我认为这个风险值得承担，因为 Netflix 如今是一家伟大的公司，我相信它是一个极佳的投资机会。
I still buy Netflix shares even at a price higher than the average purchase price. In fact, buying more Netflix shares today raises the average purchase price of the company, increasing the likelihood of incurring losses if its price continues to fall.
This is the downside. When I buy Netflix shares today, I buy them at a price higher than the average purchase price, which increases the likelihood of incurring losses, but I believe this risk is worth taking because Netflix is a great company today , and I believe it is an excellent investment opportunity.
我分析的一部分是，Netflix 正是那种会推动投资者偏见、使其做出错误分析的公司之一。我们举两个例子。第一，当我们审视 Netflix 时，许多投资者认为它面临激烈竞争，以至于几乎无法增长，在与 YouTube、Paramount、Warner Bros. 或无论它们当前规模如何的巨头公司竞争时都难以生存。
那么 Netflix 将如何竞争？许多人谈论过 Netflix 的命运，以及它面临的巨大互动问题。然而，管理层在一次新闻采访中表示，他们并不存在互动问题，而且各类别的观看量都增长了 2%。
每订阅用户平均观看时长的下降被归因于严格密码保护措施的实施，这自然导致平均观看时长减少。管理层还指出，其在世界上人们不太看电视的地区的增长，这使得它与各群体的人口结构和观看习惯有关，而不是互动问题。
管理层还解释说，Netflix 的观看时长问题没有被正确理解。例如，公司把 5% 的预算花在直播上，而直播只占互动的 1%。所以，只看观看时长，直播似乎是在浪费钱，那为什么还要做呢？
但 Netflix 看重直播，是因为它认识到直播的诸多好处：它能吸引新客户，有助于留住现有客户，而且观众喜爱直播。即使他们很久没看，这些也是高质量的电视节目。因此，他们转向那些无助于增加观看时长、但能让客户对 Netflix 更满意的东西。
Part of my analysis is that Netflix is one of those companies that pushes investors' biases into making incorrect analyses. Let's take two examples. First, when we look at Netflix, many investors think that it faces fierce competition, to the point that it can barely grow and struggles to survive against YouTube, Paramount, Warner Bros., or whatever their current size, are the giant companies it faces.
So how will Netflix be able to compete? Many have spoken about the fate of Netflix, and about the enormous interaction problems it faces. However, management stated in a press interview that they do not have a problem with interaction, and that viewership has increased by 2% in all categories.
The decline in average viewing time per subscriber was attributed to the implementation of strict password protection measures , which naturally led to a decrease in average viewing time.
The administration also pointed to its growth in regions of the world where people do not watch television much , which makes it related to the demographics and viewing habits of each group, and not to a problem of interaction.
The management also explained that the issue of viewing time on Netflix is not properly understood. For example, the company spends 5% of its budget on live streaming, which represents only 1% of the interaction.
So, looking only at the viewing time, live streaming might seem like a waste of money, so why is it done at all ? But Netflix is valuing live streaming because it recognizes its many benefits: it attracts new customers and helps retain existing ones, and the audience loves live streaming.
Even if they haven't watched them for a long time , they are high-quality television programs. Therefore, they are turning to things that do not contribute to increasing viewing time, but keep the customer more satisfied with Netflix.
当我们看基本面时，这一点就变得清楚了。例如，许多人印象中 Netflix 是一家正在衰落的公司。看看当前的情况，我们发现股价几乎印证了这一点。Netflix 的股价持续下跌，今年下跌了 26%，过去一年下跌了 42%。
股价曾是 111 美元，随后涨到 120 美元，并在 2025 年大幅上涨至 122 美元。现在，Netflix 的股价是 67 美元，意味着股价已下跌 50%。这家公司发生了什么？
当我们看基本面时，我们发现收入在所有地区都在增长。真的是你经营的每个地方。他们有四个主要区域：美国和加拿大、欧洲、非洲部分地区、拉丁美洲，以及亚洲和太平洋，也就是遍布全球，而且每个地方都在增长。
事实上，在美国和加拿大以外的地区增长更快，因为那里的增长机会更大。其中许多地区，如拉丁美洲和亚太，正经历 18% 的增长。每个地区的增长率都超过 10%。Netflix 在实现收入增长的同时，自由现金流也大幅增长，已达到 110 亿美元。其每股收益也在显著增长。
When we look at the basics, this becomes clear . For example, many people have the impression that Netflix is a dying company. Looking at the current situation, we find that the stock price almost indicates that .
Netflix's stock price is in continuous decline, having fallen by 26% this year and 42 % over the past year. The stock price was $111, then it rose to $120, and saw a sharp increase in 2025 to reach $122 .
Now, Netflix's stock price is $67, meaning the stock price has dropped by 50%. What happened to this company? Well, when we look at the fundamentals, we find that revenues are growing in all areas.
Literally everywhere you work. They have four main regions: the United States and Canada, Europe, parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia and the Pacific, that is, all over the world, and they are growing everywhere.
In fact, they grow faster in regions outside the United States and Canada, due to greater growth opportunities. Many of these regions , such as Latin America and Asia Pacific, are experiencing growth of 18%.
The growth rate in each region exceeds 10%. Netflix is achieving revenue growth in conjunction with significant growth in its free cash flow, which has reached $11 billion. Its earnings per share are also experiencing significant growth.
事实上，目前令投资者担忧 Netflix 的负面因素之一，是关于增长放缓的说法。收入确实有所放缓，但需要把背景说清楚。收入增长率已从约 15-16% 降至约 11-12%。所以，确实略有放缓，但这并非源于真正的结构性原因。
Netflix 身上发生的，只是其庞大收入来源的叠加效应，比如对密码保护的打击。他们刚刚完成提价，并采取了许多创收措施。现在这种增长略有放缓，但他们仍在实现正常增长，并不断增加订阅用户。
如你所见，这并不是一家陷入困境的公司的故事。Netflix 继续以 11% 至 15% 的速度增长收入，而每股收益的增长速度则快得多。
In fact, one of the negative factors that is currently worrying investors about Netflix is talk of slowing growth. It is true that there has been a slowdown in revenues , but the context needs to be clarified .
The revenue growth rate has decreased from about 15-16% to about 11-12%. So, there is a slight slowdown, but it is not due to real structural reasons. What's happening with Netflix is simply the overlap of its huge revenue streams, such as the crackdown on password protection.
They have just finished raising prices and have taken many revenue-generating measures. Now this growth is slowing down a little, but they are still achieving normal growth and adding more subscribers.
As you can see, this is not the story of a company experiencing difficulties. Netflix continues to grow its revenue at a rate of between 11 and 15%, while earnings per share are growing at a much faster pace .
事实上，投资者还应该关注另一件事，那就是Qualtrics所指出的，每股收益增长6%。之所以提到这个百分比，是因为它包含了华纳兄弟的付款。按照已公布的数字，增长仅为5.8%。在扣除这些一次性付款后调整每股收益，自然增长达到24%。
对于这样一家成熟的公司来说，每股收益增长24%，加上强大的竞争优势和巨大的现金流，表明它是一家顶级领先企业。这是非常快速的增长，快于Visa和Mastercard这样的公司。
In fact, there is another thing that investors should pay attention to, which is what Qualtrics points out, showing a 6% growth in earnings per share . The reason for mentioning this percentage is that it includes Warner Bros. payments.
With the figures announced, growth amounts to only 5.8%. Adjusting earnings per share after deducting those one-time payments, the natural growth reaches 24%. A 24% growth in earnings per share for such an established company, with a strong competitive advantage and huge cash flow, is an indication that it is a top-tier leading company.
It's a very rapid growth , faster than companies like Visa and Mastercard.
Netflix是一家收入增长处于中等到快速水平的公司，并且拥有很高的经营杠杆，这对其利润增长贡献显著。目前，Netflix股价对应未来十二个月的市盈率为18.42。也就是说，你为公司支付的是18.5倍，而且这是在调整比率之后的，因为它收到的股息不影响未来的市盈率。
所以，这个数字是你今天为Netflix股票支付的真实倍数。一家利润以每年24%的速度增长的公司，并且如果我们假设Netflix能够承受华纳兄弟与派拉蒙合并带来的竞争，它还享有相对较强的竞争优势。
Netflix is a company with medium to rapid revenue growth, and it has high operating leverage that contributes significantly to its profit growth . Currently, Netflix shares are trading at a price-to- earnings ratio of 18.42 for the next twelve months.
That is, you are paying 18.5 times the company , and this is after adjusting the ratio because the dividends it received do not affect the future price-to-earnings ratio . So, this figure is the true multiplier you're paying for Netflix shares today.
A company whose profits are growing at a rate of 24% annually, and which enjoys a relatively strong competitive advantage if we assume that Netflix is able to withstand the competition resulting from the merger of Warner Bros. and Paramount.
至于Netflix，它处于全球所有媒体公司中最强的财务状况。
As for Netflix, it is in the strongest financial position among all media companies in the world.
然后有很多关于Netflix的讨论。该公司的许多批评者说，它提供的是重复且缺乏原创性的内容，比如在一部电视剧中多次重述情节，这是不准确的。这类批评已经被用来批评Netflix有一段时间了，声称其内容质量差，并称Netflix强迫制片人多次重述情节，以便使用手机观看的观众能明白发生了什么，因为他们显然没有专注于剧集，从而给人一种Netflix充斥着廉价且短暂内容的印象。
这件事部分是由Matt Damon引发、甚至加剧的。Matt Damon和Ben Affleck接受了Joe Rogan的采访，采访中Matt Damon说：“Netflix希望电影在对话中把情节重述三四次，因为观众在看的时候在用手机。”
这一说法被媒体报道。这段片段在Reddit和社交媒体上广泛传播，声称Netflix强迫导演这样做。Ben Affleck是那次与Matt Damon和Joe Rogan一起出现在采访中的另一个人。
Ben Affleck最近出现在节目中，准确解释了Matt Damon所说的话，以及他那些话的意思。他还讲述了自己如何试图敦促媒体更正这一说法，因为它是错误的。
Then there's a lot of talk about Netflix. Many of the company's critics say it offers duplicate and unoriginal content , such as retelling the plot several times during a television series, which is inaccurate.
This type of criticism has been used for some time to criticize Netflix, with claims that its content is of poor quality and that Netflix forces producers to retell the plot several times so that viewers using their phones understand what is happening, because they are clearly not focused on the series, giving the impression that Netflix is full of cheap and ephemeral content.
This was partly started, and even increased, thanks to Matt Damon. Matt Damon and Ben Affleck were interviewed by Joe Rogan, during which Matt Damon said: " Netflix wants movies to retell the plot three or four times in dialogue, because viewers are using their phones while watching."
This statement was reported by the media . This clip has been widely circulated across Reddit and social media, with claims that Netflix forces directors to do this. Ben Affleck was the other person who appeared in that interview with Matt Damon and Joe Rogan.
Ben Affleck recently appeared on the show to explain exactly what Matt Damon was saying , and what he meant by his words. He also recounted how he tried to urge the media to correct this story because it was wrong.
Netflix不仅没有欺负Ben Affleck和Matt Damon，他们只是告诉他们：“我们相信你。去拍你的电影吧。”这与Netflix本该有的样子恰恰相反。
Netflix didn't just refrain from bullying Ben Affleck and Matt Damon; they simply told them, " We believe in you. Go ahead and make your movie." That's the opposite of what Netflix is supposed to be.
总体而言，Netflix是一家能够制作出优秀内容的公司。他们以前做到过。我认为他们还会再次制作出更多成功的剧集。
Overall, Netflix is a company capable of producing great content. They've done it before. I think they'll make more successful series again.
与此同时，股价较其高点下跌了50%。目前对应未来市盈率为18倍。公司每天都在获得现金，并且在每个地区都以超过10%的速度增长。收入将会出现放缓。人们会把这说成一个坏词。但我不追随公司。
我感兴趣的是未来几个季度增长的放缓。从长期来看，我认为这家公司将会盈利。
Meanwhile, the stock price is down 50% from its highs. It's trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18. The company is getting cash in every day and growing by more than 10% in every region.
There will be a slowdown in revenue. People will call that a bad word. But I don't follow companies. I'm interested in the slowdown in growth over the next couple of quarters. In the long run, I think this company will be profitable.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。