NFLX 相对 115 美元的公允价值被低估，强劲的基本面足以抵消短视频内容带来的风险，支撑看多论点。

Netflix stock is currently trading near its lowest level in 52 weeks, and I have taken advantage of this recent decline to increase my stake in the company . In this video, I wanted to explain why I increased my stake in Netflix, what I see as the biggest risk facing the stock in the short and medium term, and what I will do in the future.

Am I interested in buying more, or am I satisfied with my current distribution? I think it's important to look at Netflix's performance over the past decade. The stock price has fallen significantly in the short term over the past year, and I believe that has distorted the overall outlook for the company.

If you look at the actual business performance , you will find it has been excellent over the past decade.

Revenues increased from about 10 billion to nearly 49 billion, an increase of about 5 times in that period. Most of this growth came from an increase in subscribers, with initiatives such as restricting password sharing, raising prices, and introducing advertising to the platform contributing to part of this growth.

Looking ahead, Wall Street analysts who follow Netflix expect the company's revenue growth to slow over the next few years . In 2026, Netflix is projected to grow by 13.6%, which will slow to 11.25% in 2027, and then to just 10% in 2028.

However, double-digit growth for Netflix is still expected over the next three years. Netflix does not grow its revenue by offering discounts, promotions, or incentives, but rather grows its revenue organically.

In fact, it is raising prices and restricting password sharing, as I mentioned. So , it offers less attractive terms to customers, yet its revenues are still growing.

This leads to a boom in profitability. Operating profit margin reached record levels at 30.25%. This is up from nearly 15 % in 2023. The content budget is expected to increase by about 10% this year, a slower rate than its revenue growth, but representing a higher rate of growth in content spending compared to the previous year.

Investors are concerned that the content budget is increasing significantly, while revenue growth forecasts are declining markedly. This suggests ineffective spending on content, which I disagree with.

I think Netflix has done a great job of learning what kind of content to produce in order to generate billions of views, or rather billions of dollars in revenue.

This brings me to the return on invested capital for the company, which is extremely important because this is the core of Netflix's business. Investing capital in projects such as films, programs, and live events that generate profits for the company and investors in the long term.

Not only do they excel at this, with a return on invested capital three times its weighted average cost, but they are constantly improving. Up from about 3% in 2017 to more than 30% over the past twelve months.

Despite these long-term performance figures, Netflix shares are trading at their lowest valuation in years. Based on the forward price-to-earnings ratio, Netflix is trading at a level of 17.7.

My biggest concern is the changing behavior of consumers, and the changing preferences of their consumers. People tend to watch shorter visual content more . People are spending more time on TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts. This is not a category in which Netflix excels.

It is launching a similar product and investing in this category, but it is not the category that has brought Netflix success over the past decade. Therefore, if consumer preferences shift towards short-form content, and their attention spans decrease, those programs and films become less attractive assets.

If people are no longer really excited to watch a movie for an hour and a half or two hours, and their attention spans are limited to watching something for 30 or 60 seconds, then this is a structural shift in viewing behavior and is very negative for Netflix.

They can respond , they can launch their own things, and they can find ways to adapt to changing viewer preferences, but it remains a big question mark, because this is not a category in which Netflix has been successful in the past.

They are now competing in a new arena, where they have yet to demonstrate any success to investors . Instead of simply streaming programs and movies, Netflix has proven to investors for more than a decade that it is the undisputed best.

This is where I prefer the competition to be for Netflix, in streaming, and for consumers who want streaming services. But this is not the direction the market is heading. So, this is my biggest concern regarding Netflix.

There has been a lot of discussion about the interaction and how the interaction is not increasing, and part of the reason why it is not increasing I have already talked about.

People are watching a much larger amount of short-form content, and it's also free. This consumes time that they could have spent on Netflix.

In addition, Netflix spends money on a different type of content that does not generate the same level of engagement, but results in better profits. More live broadcasts, more sporting events, football matches, boxing matches, etc. This type of content does not generate much interaction, but it generates profits more effectively.

Netflix referred to a specific event in Japan. I believe it was the World Series a few quarters ago, which resulted in the largest increase in subscribers in that region in the company's history.

Therefore, this type of event is different. It leads to a different kind of consumer response, which Netflix finds appealing, but if you're only looking at the engagement numbers, which is what investors with Netflix have been focusing on, it confuses you.

I don't think Netflix helped its position by removing that figure it was reporting to investors, did it? They no longer tell us how many subscribers they have on a regular basis .

Thus, they report a number, which is the number of the decreasing reaction.

They no longer report the number of subscribers, so what are investors supposed to think? So, they are not helping themselves by doing that. I hope they bring that back.

In fact, I think this is an easy way for Netflix to increase consumer confidence, or should I say investor confidence in Netflix stock, and it's just about bringing back that subscriber number.

Just start by reporting that number again, even if it's not a good number, even if there's fluctuation from quarter to quarter, report the number and let's evaluate what we think about that number.

Canceling the number brings all the bad things, doesn't it? It only brings the worst possible scenario. Investors will automatically jump to the worst-case scenario when you cancel a number.

Isn't that so? Because investors are simply asking themselves: " Why would a company stop reporting a certain number?" Perhaps because the number is not good. Thus they arrive at these conclusions and lower their estimates of this number because the administration no longer reports it.

Perhaps because the number is no longer good, and this is the conclusion that most investors reach. Therefore, it is better for them to report that figure and alleviate this concern among investors.

I mentioned that as a risk, but I also see many triggers or factors that management can use to improve performance. I have already mentioned the announcement of the subscriber number. That would be a positive feeling for investors.

They could also offer an ad- only option, similar to YouTube, where you can watch YouTube for free if you are willing to watch ads. Netflix could do something similar, perhaps not for its entire library, but for a part of it, where they could offer a free, ad-supported version, of course.

Or they could do something like YouTube in terms of content creation. They can get more original short or even long content uploaded to part of their platform to counter the shift in consumer behavior, which is moving more towards original content creators.

So there are things a company can do if it wants to adapt to changing consumer dynamics, which they can test and see if they work and then develop based on.

Even with these modest growth forecasts, Netflix stock appears significantly undervalued at its lowest level in 52 weeks , around $67 per share .

I calculated the fair value of the company at $115 per share, which is a few dollars less than I previously estimated, but still much higher than the market price. I have calculated a probability of an upward move of over 71% here for Netflix stock.

So, despite those concerns, and despite those risks, I like the risk- reward ratio here for Netflix stock. It's the largest asset in my portfolio right now , and I'm interested in adding more.

Isn't that so? I want to buy some other shares before I buy more Netflix, but I am interested in adding Netflix if it stays around these levels. I really like the long- term value here.