NFLX 基本面强劲（利润率、广告业务），但增长正在放缓；在价格回升至 76-77 美元上方之前，技术面偏空。
逐段跳播
今天，我们再来看看 Netflix。如你所知，Netflix 是全球最大的娱乐公司之一，向全球190多个国家发行电视剧、电影、纪录片、游戏，以及越来越多的直播节目。
Today, we're going to take another look at Netflix . As you know, Netflix is one of the world’s largest entertainment companies that distributes TV series, movies, documentaries, games, and increasingly live programming to more than 190 countries around the world.
传统的商业模式依赖订阅，但 Netflix 现在拥有一个不断增长的广告支持类别，为公司提供了第二个主要收入来源。
The traditional business model relies on subscriptions , but Netflix now has a growing ad-supported category that gives the company a second major source of income.
更重要的是，Netflix 正在超越传统的点播流媒体，演变成一个更广泛的全球娱乐平台，涵盖文字内容、摔跤（WWE）和拳击等直播体育赛事、游戏、视频播客以及广告。
The bigger story is that Netflix is evolving beyond traditional on- demand streaming to become a broader global entertainment platform that includes written content, live sports such as wrestling (WWE) and boxing, gaming, video podcasts, and advertising.
该公司目前触达的受众已接近10亿人，这赋予 Netflix 庞大的全球发行覆盖范围。
The company now reaches an audience approaching one billion people, giving Netflix a massive worldwide distribution reach.
因此，Netflix 不仅是在争夺订阅用户，还在争夺消费者注意力、广告收入、优质内容以及直播体育转播协议的版权。
Therefore, Netflix is competing not only for subscriptions, but also for consumer attention, advertising revenue, premium content, and rights to live sports broadcasting agreements.
从独特价值的角度看，Netflix 最大的竞争优势在于其全球发行、内容体量与技术的结合。该公司可以在一个国家制作一档节目，并几乎瞬间将其打造成全球热门，使 Netflix 能够将内容成本分摊到非常庞大的国际受众上。
From a unique value perspective, Netflix's biggest competitive advantage is its combination of global distribution, content volume, and technology. The company can produce a program in one country and turn it into a global success almost instantly , allowing Netflix to spread the costs of the content over a very large international audience.
其推荐技术也是一个关键的差异化因素。Netflix 利用观看数据和人工智能来改进内容推荐、搜索、广告，以及越来越多的部分制作流程。
Its recommendation technology is also a key differentiating factor. Netflix uses viewing data and artificial intelligence to improve content recommendations, search, advertising, and increasingly, some production workflows.
这不仅让 Netflix 在内容发现方面占据优势，也在内容的创作、发行和盈利方式上占据优势。
This gives Netflix an advantage not only in discovering content , but also in how it is created, distributed, and profited from.
今年7月16日，公司公布了又一份强劲的第二季度业绩，营收约为125.6亿美元，同比增长13%。营业利润达到约42亿美元，增长近11%，而营业利润率依然非常强劲，为33.4%。
Back on July 16 of this year, the company announced another strong second quarter of results , with revenues of approximately $12.56 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase. Operating income reached approximately $4.2 billion, an increase of nearly 11%, while the operating margin remained very strong at 33.4%.
按摊薄口径计算，每股收益约为80美分，但股价走势的主要问题未必是盈利能力，而是增长速度。事实上，尽管超出预期，营收增长仍在放缓，从去年年底的约18%降至目前的低两位数。管理层对第三季度的预测显示，增长还会略有放缓。
On a diluted basis, earnings per share were around 80 cents, but the main issue with price action is not necessarily profitability, but rather the rate of growth. In fact , revenue growth is slowing despite exceeding expectations, from around 18% late last year to low double digits currently.
Management's forecast for the third quarter points to another slight slowdown .
对于2026年全年，Netflix 预计营收在510亿美元至514亿美元之间，年增长约为13%至14%。与此同时，营业利润预计将增长超过20%。
For the entire year of 2026, Netflix is projecting revenues of between $51 billion and $ 51.4 billion, representing annual growth of approximately 13 to 14%. At the same time, operating income is expected to increase by more than 20%.
因此，尽管营收增长放缓，盈利能力的扩张速度仍快于销售。这对股价很重要。广告仍是 Netflix 最重要的增长驱动力之一。仅2025年，公司就创造了超过15亿美元的广告收入，管理层预计这一数字将在2026年翻倍，达到近30亿美元。直播节目代表着另一个新兴机会。
Therefore, despite the slowdown in revenue growth, profitability continues to expand at a faster pace than sales. This is important for the price. Advertising remains one of Netflix's most important growth drivers .
The company generated more than $1.5 billion in advertising revenue in 2025 alone, and management expects that figure to double in 2026 to nearly $3 billion. Live programs represent another emerging opportunity.
Netflix 最近决定不提高对收购 Warner Bros. 的报价，此前管理层得出结论，认为更高的价格在财务上已完全不合理。
Netflix recently decided not to increase its offer to acquire Warner Bros. after management concluded that a higher price no longer made any financial sense at all.
这一决定降低了收购合并的风险，让Netflix得以专注于内生销售和股份回购，同时利用约28亿美元的合同终止费。
This decision reduced the risks of an acquisition merger and allowed Netflix to focus on organic sales and share buybacks, while taking advantage of a contract termination fee of approximately $2.8 billion.
现在，我们来看看这家公司其他一些积极因素。Netflix目前提供NFL比赛、WWE、拳击以及部分棒球节目等赛事内容，吸引了新订阅用户，并创造了优质广告库存。
Now, let's look at some of the other positives of the company. Netflix now offers events such as NFL games, WWE, boxing, and select baseball programs, attracting new subscribers and creating a premium advertising inventory.
该公司仍是全球娱乐行业中最赚钱的企业之一。如果看营业利润率，它们超过30%，而且利润增速快于营收增速。同样，这对于股价走势如何发展很重要。
The company remains one of the most profitable businesses in the global entertainment industry. If you look at the operating margins, they exceed 30 % and profits are growing faster than revenues.
Again, this is important in relation to how the stock price movement develops.
广告提供了第二个重要的增长引擎。与此同时，体育和直播活动为Netflix提供了吸引订阅用户和广告商的更多途径。
Advertising provides a second important growth engine. Meanwhile, sports and live events give Netflix additional ways to attract subscribers and advertisers.
如前所述，该公司拥有庞大的全球分销网络和强大的定价能力。它们可以通过订阅、广告、定价和直播活动，从同一受众群体中创造不断增长的收入，这将支撑利润增长，即使传统会员增长开始放缓。
As mentioned, the company maintains a huge global distribution and strong pricing power . They can generate increasing revenue from the same audience through subscriptions, advertising, pricing , and live events, which will support profit growth even if traditional membership growth begins to slow.
最后，为了支撑股价，该公司恢复了激进的股份回购，推出了一项额外250亿美元的回购计划，随着股价远低于此前历史高点，这一点正变得越来越重要。
Finally, to support the share price, the company resumed aggressive share buybacks, adopting an additional $ 25 billion buyback program , which is becoming increasingly important as the stock trades well below its previous record highs.
从估值角度看，股价在70至71美元左右，市值正接近3000亿美元。该股目前的市盈率约为未来盈利的19.4倍，而行业平均约为13倍。因此，与更广泛的行业相比，Netflix仍以溢价交易。
From a valuation perspective, with a share price around $70 to $71, the market capitalization is approaching $300 billion. The stock is trading at approximately 19.4 times future earnings, compared to the sector average of around 13 times.
So, Netflix is still trading at a price premium compared to the broader sector.
不过，这一倍数明显低于该公司约35倍盈利的5年平均水平。未来营收增速也约为13.5%，而息税折旧摊销前利润增速约为22%。同样，这一差异很重要，因为它表明得益于经营杠杆，Netflix的利润增速快于营收增速。
However, this multiple is significantly lower than the company's 5-year average of approximately 35 times earnings . Future revenue growth is also around 13.5%, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization growth is around 22%.
Again, this difference is important because it shows that Netflix is growing profits faster than revenues thanks to operating leverage.
估值问题在于，约19倍的市盈率究竟反映了营收增长放缓，还是盈利能力的改善最终会证明这一较高倍数是合理的。现在，我们也来谈谈关于Netflix的一些担忧。首先，正如我们此前提到的，最大的担忧是增长放缓。营收依然强劲，但不再加速。
The valuation question is whether the price-to- earnings ratio of around 19 actually reflects a slowdown in revenue growth, or whether improved profitability will ultimately justify this higher multiple.
Now , let's also address some concerns regarding Netflix. First , as we mentioned earlier, the biggest concern is the slowdown in growth. Revenues remain strong, but are no longer accelerating.
总观看时长的增长也相对温和。这意味着Netflix越来越依赖定价能力、广告和变现能力的改善，来以快于用户参与度的速度提升营收。
Well, the growth in total viewing hours was also relatively modest. This means that Netflix is increasingly relying on pricing power, advertising, and improved monetization to increase revenue at a faster pace than engagement.
竞争依然激烈，尤其是来自YouTube、Amazon、Disney以及扩张后的Paramount Warner实体的竞争。
Competition remains fierce, especially from YouTube, Amazon, Disney and the expanded Paramount Warner entity.
直播体育也可能增加风险，因为体育转播权可能极其昂贵。因此，Netflix需要证明，获取和留住订阅用户，以及这些赛事带来的广告收入，能够证明更高的内容成本是合理的。
Live sports can also increase the risks, because sports broadcasting rights can be extremely expensive. Therefore, Netflix needs to prove that acquiring and retaining subscribers, and the advertising revenue generated from these events, can justify the higher costs of the content.
好。现在我们来看看“Netflix”的技术面情况。正如你在图表中所见，技术面依然疲弱。该股在过去50个交易日内跑输标普500指数，且仍低于其下行的50日和200日移动均线，确认了更广泛的下跌趋势。
Good. Now, let's take a look at the technical situation of " Netflix". As you can see in the chart, the technical situation is still weak. The stock has underperformed the S &P 500 over the last 50 trading days and remains below its declining 50- and 200-day moving averages , confirming a broader downtrend.
下跌当日的成交量也更高，表明该股仍处于派发阶段，而非吸筹阶段。日线相对强弱指数约为46，而MACD指标基本持平，表明下行动能放缓，但尚未确认趋势反转。
Trading volume was also higher on the days of the decline , indicating that the stock is still in a distribution phase and not an accumulation phase. The daily Relative Strength Index is around 46, while the MACD indicator remains essentially flat, indicating a slowing of the downward momentum, but there is no confirmation of a trend reversal yet.
在周线图上，相对强弱指数仍疲弱，约为40，不过MACD指标已开始改善。因此，Netflix 可能会尝试构筑底部，但在股价回升至约76至77美元这一水平之前，图表走势仍然偏空；该水平位于50日移动均线上方，之后还有更重要的83至87美元区间，这是9月初形成的阻力位。
On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index remains weak at around 40, although the MACD indicator has started to improve. Therefore, Netflix may attempt to build a bottom, but the chart remains negative until the stock can recover to levels of approximately $76 to $77 , which is above the 50- day moving average, followed by the more significant $83 to $87 level, which represents resistance from early September.
简而言之，Netflix 仍是全球娱乐行业中最强大的公司之一。收入继续以两位数速度增长，营业利润率高达30%以上，广告已成为重要且不断增长的第二收入来源。
In short , Netflix remains one of the most powerful companies in the global entertainment industry . Revenues continue to grow at a double-digit rate, operating margins are high at over 30%, and advertising has become an important and growing second source of income.
直播节目也在将 Netflix 的覆盖范围扩展到传统点播流媒体之外，而决定退出 Warner Bros. 则体现了财务纪律，使公司能够专注于内生增长和股票回购。公司面临的挑战是增长正在放缓，而竞争持续加剧。
Live programming is also expanding Netflix's reach beyond traditional on- demand streaming, while the decision to move away from Warner Bros. has demonstrated financial discipline, allowing the company to focus on organic growth and share buybacks.
The challenge facing the company is that growth is slowing down, while competition continues to intensify.
因此，接下来投资的问题清晰而直接。股价是否已经反映了收入增长放缓和市场的反应？还是这种技术面疲软表明 Netflix 的竞争优势正开始缩小？
Therefore, the question of investing moving forward is clear and straightforward. Has the stock already priced in the slowdown in revenue growth and the reaction? Or does this technical weakness indicate that Netflix's competitive advantage is beginning to shrink?
观察点
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。