NFLX 看空：营收增速连续四个季度放缓至同比 11.8%，为 2023 年以来最慢；2026 年广告收入预计从 30 亿美元降至 27 亿美元。利润率虽好，但市场关注的是增长；Netflix 在观看时长竞争中无法胜过 YouTube、TikTok 和 Instagram，他已卖出一半仓位，且仍是卖方。

I also wanted to check on Netflix's performance, because, like a fool, I lost its shares after its price dropped from 100. I lowered my average purchase price. Today, I admitted my mistake on CNBC.

I sold half of my share for approximately 70. Well, I'm relieved that things changed last week. That 's why.

I had no real expectations regarding tonight's earnings report, which we will discuss later. I just said, as you know, this company is trapped in the stock market . Financially, it is performing excellently, but it clearly has a problem maintaining public interest.

The blame can be placed on the programs, or on the competition, or whatever the reason may be. In the end, they fired Bella Pajaria, head of content, and Daniel Lin , head of the studio.

They fired Daniel Lane's second assistant, and you too, and then they laid off a thousand employees, and you're unlikely to do that before a quarter in which you have a lot to say.

It seemed unlikely to me. So, for better or for worse, I reduced my investment in Netflix.

I see that its price has dropped by a factor of three in the post-closure period, no problem. The price didn't drop enough for me to want to buy it again, but it dropped enough for me to feel a little less stupid for reducing my investment a bit.

I am still wrong. I still hate myself. You have broken all my rules.

What? There is a bright side, at least for me. I also acted at a 20% loss, but I did it . Well, it doesn't matter. I will record a 20% loss on my taxable account, so at least I get a discount.

Okay, can I ask you this before we get into the results? Do you think there was anything they could have said about this? Well, what they said wasn't good. So, do you want to go into detail?

But what could they possibly say? What would they have said? Are we at the peak of our brilliance? No, you are not. We know that you are not. Yes , that's all . This is the reality.

The only question the optimists were asking at the start of the quarter was: Is it over ? Are all the bad news over? no. There was no hope. There will be no consolation in their coming out and saying, " Wait until you see our next reaction metrics."

By the way, they now only publish it once a year. They used to publish it twice a year. We have no idea what's going on here.

So, we have the quarter results, let's get started. Explain to us what they said. Let's start with revenues. Listen, it's a company that's still maturing. We do not expect growth to accelerate.

This is not a cloud computing company, but four consecutive quarters of slowdown is not good in terms of revenue. 11.8% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since 2023. I think the good news is that profit margins are good.

Profit margins are good. But these expectations do not allow for continuation in this manner. The forecast is 0.2% below the midpoint, okay? As for the advertising platform, they are currently forecasting advertising revenues of $2.7 billion for 2026 , down from about $3 billion previously.

This is not enough. They said: " We know there is some concern among investors about our working hours, about the growth in viewing hours." Yes, this is correct.

Let's show you the graph, please. We've been sharing this chart, not just you and me , but everyone in the market has been sharing it for a long time, and the situation is getting worse.

It appears that YouTube is capturing their entire market share. Unfortunately, this says a lot about our current situation. Everything is concise. I do n't even know what could change this situation.

Can you imagine what it could change? The reason Netflix has refrained from talking about this metric , hourly viewing time , is that it cannot compete. It is best not to delve into this subject at all.

It is true that competition with Paramount and Disney for hours of content viewing on streaming apps is a possibility, and they are talking about it, but the problem is that the discussion has strayed from this topic.

Now the talk is about comparing Netflix to TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. What else do people do? Reading books and playing pickleball. They cannot win. You cannot win this competition if you are Netflix. Simply put, you can't .

Okay, let's now assume the optimistic scenario, which is unconvincing. I sold the share, and you sold half of it. The stock fell by 52%. Then they bought a record number of shares, and at higher prices of course.

The situation couldn't be worse. I don't know how things could get any worse. correct. Well, they've brought in someone with extensive experience in all kinds of content streaming, including sports, and he seems to be very popular in Hollywood.

He is a former Disney employee, works with Fox, and has made huge sports deals. It seems he came to start bringing in his team to fix this situation, and perhaps that is the positive side; they probably won't surpass YouTube, but they will still make huge profits.

They are already making huge profits, and the profit margins are good. It's strange that people don't care. It is almost absurd to say that they do not care. Their focus is not on how profitable Netflix is, but on growth.

What have you recently provided me in the area of growth? And if you don't have a satisfactory answer , you can continue publishing earnings per share figures and share buybacks indefinitely.

I am a stock seller. That's how people behave. Okay . Okay, do they always do that? I'm not sure. No, I mean listen, they will eventually hit their lowest point . Is it 64 or 44? who knows?

But no one is suggesting that usage is the opposite of Netflix's problem. The problem with Netflix is that people don't turn it on or let it work like they used to. This is a request problem.

There is no demand problem for artificial intelligence anywhere in the foreseeable future.