NFLX 在本次财报前不宜买入：隐含波动率9%，过去财报后跌幅达2%-10%，如同俄罗斯轮盘赌。今年以来下跌25%，而标普上涨13%-14%；一年内下跌42%。需要改善第四季度指引，否则年底可能面临沉重抛售；广告业务或可贡献30亿美元。

So, here we are taking a look at Netflix. We would like to know some of your thoughts on this topic. There are obviously some tests. There is strong competition. You already have an optimistic point of view and a pessimistic one.

So, let's review that a little. What do you think people are saying about today's report?

If you enter into this deal today, it's like playing Russian roulette. Perhaps it's not a good idea, Nicole. You know, the implied volatility is 9%. This is extremely high. This means that after the earnings announcement, the price may fluctuate in the low sixties or high seventies.

That's a fairly large move , you know , for implied volatility.

We must remember that in the past four quarters, after the earnings announcement, the stock has fallen by between 2% and 10%. So, they need to give us some confidence about why we would want to invest in Netflix, given all of that.

Since the beginning of the year, as you know, the Standard & Poor's index has risen by 13 or 14%. Meanwhile, Netflix's stock fell by 25%. Therefore, it is difficult to build a strong argument for optimism.

But for tonight, rushing into this deal doesn't seem logical. Look, the stock has already fallen. It has fallen by about 25% since the beginning of the year, i.e., 2026, and over the course of a whole year it has fallen by 42%.

I've never heard anyone come to me and say that they have cancelled their Netflix subscription. They simply don't. It is a fairly well-established service . Look, they were the first to enter this field.

Part of that is due to inertia. They may be too lazy to call and unsubscribe.

Look, they have a lot of competition. Look at YouTube now. Um, you have HBO Max, Paramount, etc. They often tend to move around a lot. For example, well, I have a few movies I'm going to watch.

I've sort of finished the series I wanted to watch. I watched it all at once. Let me move on to something else. But it holds up well.

You know, Nicole, the hardest part of putting this picture together is that they no longer provide us with subscription numbers. The last time they did that was at the end of 2024 when they had more than 301 million subscribers, or paying members as I should say, around the world.

So their opportunity is to try to add that feature as the first to take the initiative, and try to acquire it. But again, we don't have that number and we don't have the cost of acquiring the customer.

This is the cost of the acquisition, isn't it? We don't own it either. So we kind of need to know where Netflix is headed.

These are two big pieces of the puzzle I'd like to know about ; perhaps subscription growth will pick up with some of the things they have. "Below" is a new hit series . Um, I don't know the whole story.

It's about a fisherman and...water and things like that . Um, but look, on Thanksgiving Day , they're going to be showing NFL games . That's the first time. So, um, WWE wrestling shows are live entertainment.

Netflix may be trying to move away from traditional movies and series, and perhaps again towards more live streaming. That may be one thing to increase subscriber growth, even though we don't see those numbers.

Yes, I think you made a great point about the numbers and our lack of the same vision we used to have at the same time. Um, you know , you know they have certain things, I don't know, "gunpowder," or whatever you want to call it.

I mean, they need to release another "Squid Game" and they'll be back on track. I mean, Ben Affleck's "Animals" was a worldwide winner at this point even though it did n't get great reviews.

I watched it last weekend. Oh, you know, it's something people are still turning to at this stage. I watched "Remarkably Bright Creatures " last weekend. I'm not actually the type of person who watches a lot of television.

So I watched some of these shows , but what I will say is that I see revenues up over 10% year-on-year, around 12%, and the question is, they are cutting jobs, aren't they ? Just to keep costs down, but they are making some changes to the leadership and I wonder how that may or may not help.

Well, Nicole, it really has to do with the creative directors. Many of them were old-timers and have been replaced by new ones. You know, you can get another "Squid Game" and I think I'll laugh at these stories.

Yes, things can really open up for them. You know, sometimes people sacrifice profit at the beginning to attract customers. They come for one show and then get hooked on other shows , because Netflix is doing a great job; When you are on her platform, you can say, "I want to watch a show like this."

I want to see what it's like; they offer a lot of good customer service.

But to get back to your point, annual revenue increased by 12%, yet the stock fell by 40%. So, we know that margins are a little tight, and the cost of content is increasing. We don't necessarily know the cost of the acquisition, as we said before, but the content is very expensive.

If you're going to spend billions on original software, you'd better have a good reason to do so, otherwise shareholders won't reward you, which is what they did by avoiding the stock.

Yes, I mean the advertisements were also a bright spot. It is estimated that this number could double this year to reach 3 billion, according to my understanding. Therefore , they have a kind of presence here that is not easy to compete with.

I know they are competing to attract viewers who are on YouTube and TikTok, so the landscape is difficult.

But regarding the negative outlook, how far do you think this stock could fall? As you wrote, YouTube accounts for about 14% of viewing time compared to 8% for Netflix. This is not a good thing.

Currently, the stock is priced at $69, down from its peak of $124 a year ago. That's right, so their numbers aren't good.

Look, a lot will depend on future guidance . I think this applies to almost all technology companies. It's not about what they did in the past; that's in the past. The third quarter, which ended on September 30, is behind us .

What will you do for us in the fourth quarter and the rest of the year?

As for Netflix, if they cannot improve things, they will be vulnerable to massive sales and will record tax losses. You know, stocks that have performed well tend to increase in value, don't they?

Improving the overall appearance, to make it look as if everyone owns shares in Apple and Microsoft. On the other hand, underperforming stocks are susceptible to strong selling pressure in mid- or early December and even to the end of the year, as most money managers do not want to include Netflix in their top 10 investment list .

Also, I think you're making a good point, aren't you ? I understand the reason because it's a very declining stock and nobody wants a big loser in their portfolio, right?

Um, Peter Rice has also joined us , hasn't he? The former Walt Disney executive, who was recently appointed to attract a wider audience, has many tasks to enhance the company's position in the big picture.

He certainly has a footprint in this industry and knows how to get the job done. They were spending lavishly on content. This is something I was looking into earlier. I believe the amount reached approximately 20 billion.

So, what type of original or exclusive content will the company provide? But bringing in new leadership might help with this. We'll have to wait and see. But the question also relates to the directions of interaction.

If these trends are indeed declining, will that hurt revenues?

So, umm, spending on content is something I understand. Live sports are definitely at the heart of it when it comes to these broadcasters. We have certainly seen that it is very profitable.

Um, perhaps some concluding thoughts here about what exactly you're looking for and what might make a big difference here.

So, as you know, for years the CEO has said, "We're not going to make people pay for ads if they sign up for the service." I think that phase is over. I think we can all live with one or two announcements.

Let's say it's a car movie, or an accident movie, or whatever. You could display a Dodge or a Chrysler, so I think they should abandon this idea, even though I know they have gold and platinum services and different types of subscriptions.

But the biggest opportunity, as I mentioned, is about $3 billion that could come from advertising. And I think you can actually convince those who pay for no ads a little. I know they will blame me.

I also don't like advertisements, but I think it's the best opportunity. They have over 300 million members. Again, this is the number we know from 2024. What an opportunity to include a few targeted ads.

And that figure may not be just an additional $3 billion . It might be 5 or 6 billion dollars. Therefore, I think the administration needs to take a step back . I know they promised there would be no ads, but I think this is the best idea as an incentive to bring in more revenue for Netflix.

Yes, and look, they've been laying off workers recently. The question is whether they will talk more about that or about how they are reducing costs in general. Ken, it's great to see you and thanks for all your insights here regarding Netflix.

I can't wait to hear what the company, whose stock is currently priced at $69.33, has to say.