NFLX 正在成熟为一只价值股，而非科技成长故事：营收增速从 2025 年的 16% 放缓至 2026 年预期的 13%，但在不到 20 倍远期市盈率、利润率上升的情况下，它现在看起来是不错的价值标的；对广告业务的担忧可能被夸大。这并非确定之事；不必着急，且其故事不如同行清晰。
逐段跳播
我想先从Netflix说起。这是一支在“Motley Fool”圈子里存在了很久的股票。很多投资者可能在这里赚到了巨额利润，但他们上一个季度的表现并不完全是投资者所期待的那样。
I want to start with Netflix. This is an arrow that has been around in the world of " Motley Fool" for a long time. Many investors may have made huge profits here, but their last quarter wasn't exactly what investors were looking for.
截至我们周三早些时候录制时，这只股票只下跌了约3%。Lou，这看起来像是那种营收实现两位数增长的季度之一。我认为他们的利润率略好于他们的预期。但市场反应相当冷淡。这是Netflix如今已经进入的成熟阶段吗？
The stock is down by only about 3% as we record early on Wednesday. Lou, this looks like one of those quarters with double- digit revenue growth. I think their profit margins were slightly better than they expected.
But the market was rather lukewarm. Is this the mature stage that Netflix has reached now?
我认为情况正是如此。你看，是的，营收在增长，但速度更慢了。关于用户参与度方面，没有多少好消息。如你所知，人们对上Netflix并不是真的很兴奋。广告销售放缓，我认为这是一个非常有意思的意外。
I think that's exactly the situation. Look, yes, revenues are growing, but at a slower pace. There isn't much good news about the level of engagement. As you know, people aren't really excited about coming to Netflix.
The slowdown in advertising sales is something I think is a really interesting surprise.
你看，Netflix现在还是老样子。我昨天和一位投资者聊过，谈到我们已经很久没有在Netflix上发现任何让我们兴奋的东西了。
Look, Netflix is the same as it is now. I was having this conversation with someone , an investor, yesterday, about how it's been a long time since we got excited about anything we found on Netflix.
这是一家成熟的公司。她做得非常好。我们处在一个逐渐演变的时代，过去让我们惊叹的东西如今不再那么令人惊叹了。我认为这个季度相当无聊，更像是一个哈欠。所以，也许这次市场是对的。
It is a mature company. She is doing very well. We are in an age of gradual evolution where things that used to amaze us are no longer so. I think this quarter was rather boring.
It was more like a yawn. So, perhaps the market is right this time.
是的，John，增长放缓总是投资者不想听到的。他们还撤掉了内容负责人。所以，他们似乎意识到了这一点，电话会议里有很多关于这种互动的问题。我不知道你具体想用哪个标准来衡量。
Yes, John, slowing growth is always something investors don't want to hear about. They also got rid of their head of content . So, they seem to be aware of that, and there were many questions in the conference call about this interaction.
I don't know exactly which scale you want to use.
他们想把它变成：“嘿，你知道吗？如果我们想，我们就能涨价。所以，我们可以涨价。这肯定相当不错。”但他们承认内容可能不够有说服力。
They wanted to turn it into: "Hey, you know what? We can raise prices if we want . So, we can raise them. It must be pretty good ." But they acknowledge that the content may not be convincing enough.
当然。Lou已经谈到了这一点。我认为这正好点到了痛处。我不认为在内容上挣扎的时候会去涨价。我不认为这是正确的做法，而且我认为这正是他们至今还没有这么做的原因。
certainly. Lou has already touched on that. I think this puts a finger on the wound. I don't think you're raising prices when you're struggling with content. I don't think this is the right step, and I think that's why they haven't done it yet .
通常，没有人会因为一家公司刚公布的季度业绩而惩罚它的股票。通常，让投资者担心的是接下来的几个季度。这里似乎就是这种情况。我已经谈到了一些点。我只想更多地聚焦广告这个因素。这本应是Netflix的金鹅，也许现在仍然是，但有一些担忧正在表面之下开始浮现。
Normally, no one penalizes a stock because of the quarter it just announced. Normally, what worries investors is the upcoming quarters. This seems to be the case here. I have already touched on some points.
I just want to focus more on the advertising element. This is supposed to be Netflix's golden goose, and perhaps it still is, but there are concerns that are beginning to surface beneath the surface.
总的来说，就数字广告而言，这是否会是一个会被颠覆的领域，从而导致Netflix说“我们今年实际交付的业绩略低于我们原本希望的水平”？但如果我能稍微安抚这些担忧的话。如果数字广告要在市场上任何地方继续存在，而AI代理占据主导，我会说内容业务就是它将继续存在的地方之一，因为这是一个人类仍然与平台互动的领域。从长远来看，这对Netflix是好事。
In general, when it comes to digital advertising, is this something that will be disrupted, leading Netflix to say, " We are actually delivering slightly less of our projections for this year than we would have liked"?
But if I could calm those fears a little. If digital advertising is to continue anywhere in the market with AI agent dominating, I would say that content business is one of the places where it will continue , because it is a place where humans still interact with the platform. This is good for Netflix in the long run.
我还想补充一点，那就是Netflix并没有说这是需求问题。这是产品发布时机的问题。因此，我相信今年原本预期的收入——也许现在已经不再预期了——会比预期稍晚一些到来。这是乐观的看法。
And I would like to add something else, which is that Netflix does not say this is a demand problem. It's a matter of timing when the product is released. Therefore, I believe that the revenues that were expected this year, and perhaps are no longer, will come a little later than expected. This is the optimistic view of things.
John，我们现在处在一个股票按年化和前瞻性口径计算市盈率不到20倍的阶段。我们谈过营收增长仍然保持两位数。这是一只开始显得有吸引力的股票吗？
John, we are now at a stage where stocks are trading at less than 20 times earnings on an annualized and forward-looking basis . We have talked about revenue growth that is still double digits.
Is this a stock that's starting to look attractive?
是的，我真的很努力地想在这个想法里找漏洞，因为正如Lou指出的，营收增长正在放缓，2025年录得16%，预计2026年全年将达到13%。营收增长放缓不是投资者愿意看到的，但考虑到业务规模，13%仍然非常好。
如果你看营业利润率，预计会同比上升，可能略低于历史最高水平，但仍保持同比上升，而且正如我所说，这个估值已经变得更有吸引力了。对数字广告的担忧可能被夸大了。所以，我试图在“这只股票可能变成一只价值股”这个想法里找漏洞，但我很难找到。它目前大概率是一只价值股。
Yes, I really tried to find loopholes in this idea, because, as Lowe pointed out , revenue growth is slowing, having recorded 16% in 2025, and is expected to reach 13% in 2026 for the whole year.
A slowdown in revenue growth is not something an investor would like to see, but 13% is still very good considering the size of the business. If you look at the operating margins, which are expected to rise year-on-year, they may be slightly lower than their all-time high, but they remain higher year-on-year, and as I said, this valuation has become more attractive.
Concerns about digital advertising may be exaggerated. So, I tried to find loopholes in the idea that this stock might turn into a good-value stock , but I'm having difficulty with that.
It is probably a good-value stock at the moment.
他快要说到那一点了。你看，它是一家科技公司吗？我不认为它真的是一家科技公司。它是一家媒体公司。从这一点来看，它还是一个成长故事吗？我不知道是否真的如此，我是说，如果它是一家娱乐公司，你知道它们是什么吗？
你知道，20倍的市盈率估值大概率是差不多合适的。
He's getting close to that. I mean , look, is it a technology company? I don't think it's really a tech company. It's a media company. Is it a growth story from this point ? I don't know if that's really the case, I mean, do you know what they are if they're an entertainment company?
You know, a valuation of 20 times earnings is probably about right .
我认为这里有一些根本性的东西。我不认为它们会消失。我认为它们会继续存在。但我认为我们需要改变这里的股东基础。把Netflix视为科技成长故事的投资者将不得不卖出股票退出，取而代之的是对一家成熟的媒体或流媒体公司感兴趣的人。
这需要一些时间。作为投资者，我不认为现在关注它是坏主意，但我也不认为你需要着急。我认为这种状况还会持续一段时间。
I think there is something fundamental here. I don't think they will disappear. I think they will continue. But I think we need to change the shareholder base here. Investors who viewed Netflix as a tech growth story will have to sell their shares and exit, and will be replaced by people who are interested in a mature media or streaming company.
That will take some time . As an investor, I don't think looking at it now is a bad move, but I also don't think you need to rush. I think this is the situation that will continue for a while.
是的，这是那种我不认为是有完全保证的机会的股票之一。我从未持有过Netflix的股票，但我对它感兴趣，因为我相信它是能够存活下来的公司之一。但你说得对，Lou。看看其他公司，它们的故事似乎清晰得多。
Yes, this is one of those stocks that I don't consider a completely guaranteed opportunity . I have never owned shares in Netflix, but I am interested in it because I believe it is one of the companies that will survive.
But you're right, Lou. Look at the other companies; they seem to have a much clearer story.
Netflix目前的地位比很长一段时间以来都要不那么突出。
Netflix is in a less prominent position than it has been for a very long time.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。