$NFLX

NFLX 是极佳的买入机会:营收增速放缓(从 17% 降至 12%)是唯一的批评点;即便没有 2026 年的爆款,12% 的增长仍显示出 A+ 级的核心表现,负债累累的竞争对手处于弱势,而 17-18 倍的预期市盈率对应超过 10% 的营收增长和超过 40% 的每股收益增长,使其成为便宜货。

看涨他说的是几年内
《I might SELL this Stock‼️》
Financial Education发布 2026-10-21 · 10 段内容
13:55/ —打开原视频

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10 段内容
13:5521:31

他们减少了持股数量。听我说,这正是你在任何一家企业里都想看到的情况,这正是你想看到的。他们取得了巨大的成功。唯一可以批评的负面之处,就是营收增速放缓了。仅此而已,从17%到16%到13%到12%。除此之外,没有什么可批评的,不是吗?

reduced the number of their shares, okay? Listen. This is exactly what you would want to see in any business. This is exactly what you want to see, man. They achieved tremendous success.

The only negative aspect that can be criticized is the slowdown in the rate of revenue growth. That's all, right? From 17 % to 16% to 13% to 12%. Apart from that, there's nothing to criticize, is there?

Netflix 的另一个特点是其庞大的资产负债表。其股东权益总额达到290亿美元。在从市场回购股份之后,其现金余额仍超过80亿美元,不是吗?

The other thing about Netflix is its enormous balance sheet. Its total shareholders' equity reached $29 billion. Its cash balance is more than $8 billion, after withdrawing its shares from the market, isn't that right?

现在,你会听到很多关于电影这方面的讨论。然后有人说这对他们非常不利。他们说:“哇,今年的电影都没火,对吧?通常每年电影都会出一些爆款,甚至好几部,对吧?而不知为何,2026年却没有出现这种情况。

他们没有那些大家都在谈论、都在追看的爆款电影或节目之类的,对吧?”

Now, you'll hear a lot of talk about this in relation to movies. Then some say that this is very negative for them. They say, "Wow, the movies haven't been a hit this year, have they?

Usually, movies release some kind of big hit every year, if not several, right? And for some reason, that did n't happen in 2026. They did n't have those big hits that everyone's talking about and watching this show or movie or whatever, right?

这很有意思,我实际上可以把它视为有史以来最乐观的事情之一,因为这是一家我昨晚审阅了其利润表的公司,我把它分享到了私募股权群里,对吧?它获得了A+评级。这是了不起的成就。今年没有任何爆款。

所以,如果你能说自己在没有制作出爆款电影的情况下,核心业绩仍然达到A+,那确实非常令人印象深刻。

That's interesting, and I can actually consider it one of the most optimistic things ever, because this is a company whose earnings statement I reviewed last night , and I shared it within the private equity group, right ?

It got an A+ rating. That's a great achievement. Without any hits this year. So , if you can say you're not producing a hit movie and yet still have an A+ core performance, that's really impressive.

当你是一家像这样规模的公司,而且今年在没有任何爆款的情况下,仍能将营收每年增长12%,我认为这确实非常令人印象深刻。因为那样你就可以说他们今年出了一个爆款,甚至两个爆款,对吧?

就是那种迅速传播开来的时刻。闪电。那时候,这家公司的数字会是什么样?所以,很多人可能会负面地看待它,但我看着它说:“这家公司所建立的一切确实令人印象深刻,不是吗?”

When you're a company as big as this one, and you're still able to increase your revenue by 12% annually without any big hits this year, I think that's really impressive. Because then you can say they had a big hit this year, or even two big hits, right?

One of those moments that spreads quickly." Lightning. Back then, what would the numbers of this company have been? So , you know, many might look at it negatively, but I look at it and say, "This is truly impressive what this company has built, isn't it?"

当我审视这些公司时,我看到一家我绝对确信,如果巴菲特现在50岁——当然他现在已经退休了——他一定会完全理解,而且我绝对确信他现在就会买入它的股票。不仅仅是买入;他会加大对它的投资,使其成为他前五大投资之一。

因为当我审视这家公司时,我在它身上找到了巴菲特在股票中寻找的一切。它有一个能力圈。这不是一项非常复杂的任务,对吧?留住现有订阅用户,吸引更多用户,在国际上拓展业务,扩大广告业务,不时提价,并继续购买或制作内容。

一点也不复杂。效率圈,绝对是。如果他今天50岁左右,这会是他的专长领域,不是吗?强大的竞争优势。他寻找独特的产品、强大的品牌,以及能阻止竞争对手抢占市场份额的成本优势。绝对如此。

这家公司已经具备了这些。是的。我的意思是,它无可否认是市场上的独特产品。他们拥有非常强大的品牌。他们绝对拥有成本优势。当你看看他们的竞争对手时,他们非常弱小且负债累累,不是吗?

而且他们无法以所需的方式在电影方面竞争。值得信赖的管理层?绝对如此。你知道,Netflix 有过操纵数字的历史,对吧?强大的财务状况;它偏好高而稳定的净资产收益率,以及低或可控债务下不断增长的利润率。

哦,这适用于所有电影。那里的一切。非理性估值。它只在好公司的股票低于或接近其内在价值时买入,而不是追逐市场炒作。是的,当你看看这里的预期市盈率,是17或18。是的,对于一家增长率超过10%的公司。

对于一家实现了每股收益增长超过40%的公司。是的,这很便宜。所以,你知道,当我谈论这类股票时,我认为如果巴菲特年轻几十岁,他会大举投资它。他这样做完全合理,不是吗?而且这清楚地表明这是一个真正的买入机会,不是吗?

When I look at the companies, I see one that I am absolutely certain that if Buffett were fifty years old—and he is retired now, of course—he would have fully understood, and I am absolutely certain that he would buy its shares now.

It's not just about buying; he will intensify his investments in it to make it one of his top five investments. Because when I look at this company, I find in it everything Buffett looks for in stocks.

It has a circle of competence. This is n't a very complicated task , is it? Retain existing subscribers, attract more, expand your business internationally, expand your advertising business, raise prices from time to time, and continue to buy or create content.

It's not complicated at all. The efficiency circle, definitely. "If he were around 50 years old today, this would be his area of expertise, wouldn't it ? A strong competitive advantage.

He looks for a unique product, strong brands, and cost advantages that prevent competitors from stealing market share. Absolutely. That's what this company already has. Yes. I mean, it's undeniably a unique product in the market.

They have a very strong brand. They definitely have cost advantages. When you look at their competitors, they're very weak and heavily indebted , aren't they? And they're not in a position to compete with films the way they need to.

Trustworthy management? Absolutely. You know, Netflix has a history of manipulating numbers, right? A strong financial position ; it prefers a high, consistent return on equity, and growing profit margins with low or manageable debt .

Oh, that applies to all films. Everything there. Irrational valuation . It only buys good companies when their stock is trading below or near its intrinsic value, rather than chasing market hype.

Yes, when you look at the projected P/E ratio here, it's 17 or 18. Yes, for a company growing at a rate exceeding 10%. For a company that has achieved earnings per share growth of over 40% .

Yes, it's a bargain . So, you know, when I talk about this kind of stock, I think if Buffett were a few decades younger, he would have invested heavily in it. It makes perfect sense for him to do so, does n't it?

And it clearly shows that this is a real buying opportunity, doesn't it?

所以,目前这个仓位在普通账户中价值约13.6万美元。就这个仓位的规模而言,我需要把它增加到25万美元或更多。我需要让它在普通账户中成为一个大仓位,一个非常大的仓位,对吧?这还不够大。

所以,我希望这只股票的价格短期内保持低位,并且我想从现在的水平大幅加仓,对吧?

So, right now , this position is worth about $136,000 in the general account . I need to increase it to a quarter of a million dollars or more, in terms of the size of this position.

I need to make it a large position in the general account, a very large one, right? This is n't large enough. So, I want the price of this stock to stay low in the short term, and I'd like to increase this position significantly from where it is now, right ?

现在,让我谈谈关于这只股票的另一点,因为我看到有些人说:“Jeremy,这是下一个 PayPal。”

Now, let me address another point regarding this stock because I've seen some people saying things like, "Jeremy, this is the next PayPal."

相比之下,Netflix 的竞争对手相当弱小。当我们谈论 Netflix 时,我们谈论的是在高端专业内容领域的竞争,对吧?所以,如果你看看与它竞争的主要专业公司,与 Netflix 相比,它们都处于弱得多的地位。

这是巨大的差别,不是吗?我们谈论的是 Netflix 的利润率、它如何管理其商业模式、其财务状况、其资产负债表——这与背负债务的公司相比,不是吗?这就是一个很大的区别,比如,提供与你类似产品的公司,像 PayPal,不得不与苹果和谷歌竞争,对吧?

In contrast, Netflix's competitors are quite weak. When we talk about Netflix, we're talking about competing in the premium professional content space , right? So, if you look at the major professional companies that compete with it , they're all in a much weaker position compared to Netflix.

That's a huge difference, isn't it? We're talking about Netflix's profit margins, how it manages its business model, its financials, its balance sheet —it's comparable to companies burdened with debt, isn't it?

That's a big difference between, you know, someone offering a product similar to yours, like PayPal, having to compete with Apple and Google, right?

所以,是的,这并不新鲜。自从我们开始使用智能手机以来,这种情况已经存在很长时间了。如你所知,竞争非常激烈。但这也给了 Netflix 一个巨大的机会,因为现在人们可以随时观看内容,对吧?

因此,当我看电影时,我看到一家处于强势地位的公司,而不是像 PayPal 那样处于弱势地位。Netflix 产生的所有这些资金和现金流使它更强大,因为它可以制作更多内容,从而为它带来更多收入,对吧?

其中一些内容会来自成功的节目,一些会来自失败的节目,这很正常。内容创作就是这样运作的。而且,当……说到购买体育转播权,如果它们想在未来五到十年内越来越多地购买这些权利,它们将能够做到。

这将极大地帮助其广告业务增长。对于体育转播权来说,对公司来说还为时过早,不是吗?所以,是的,这是一家伟大的公司,在我看来,现在是一个极好的买入机会,而且绝对是我一段时间内想加仓的股票,好吗?

So, yes, this is not new. This has been the case for a long time, ever since we started using smartphones. As you know, there is fierce competition. But this also gives Netflix a great opportunity , because now people can watch content whenever they want , right?

Therefore, when I look at the movies, I see a company in a position of strength, not in a position of weakness like PayPal. All this money and cash flow that Netflix generates makes it stronger, because it can produce more content that will generate more money for it , right?

Some of this content will be from successful programs, and some of it will be from programs that fail, and that is normal. That's how content creation works. But also, when... speaking of buying sports broadcasting rights, they will be able to do so if they want to expand more and more in buying these rights over the next five to ten years .

This will greatly help in growing their advertising business. It's still too early for the company regarding sports broadcasting rights , isn't it? So, yes, it's a great company, and an excellent buying opportunity right now in my opinion, and definitely a stock I'd like to buy more of for a while, okay?

这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断

Financial Education 在这只股票上共 11 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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