$NFLX

NFLX第三季度营收同比增长12%,为三年来最慢且仅符合预期,下一季度指引为134亿美元、略显疲弱,营业利润率26%低于30%。该股在下跌趋势中创下52周低点;领导层必须先统一,才可能出现上行。

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《AI STOCKS KEEP GOING DOWN | Meta x Tesla x SPCX x Netflix Earnings》
The Investor Channel发布 2026-10-23 · 6 段内容
13:59/ —打开原视频

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6 段内容
13:5930:21

接下来看 Netflix,本周股价在69美元,公司本周公布了财报,但这并未让股价上涨。事实上,本周它创下52周新低,接近64美元,随后小幅收高,周末收于66美元附近。

Moving on to Netflix, during the week at $69 , the company announced its earnings this week, and that did not allow the stock to rise. In fact, they hit a 52-week low this week, near $64, and closed slightly higher to end the week near $66.

与此同时,公司公布了第三季度财报,营收为120亿美元,同比增长12%,符合预期。他们对下一季度给出的指引也,嗯,我不知道,有点疲弱。如你所知,业绩为510亿美元,而市场共识恰好就在这个水平。

你本希望看到某种超预期表现和更高的预期,但 Netflix 实际上并没有做到。这实际上是三年来最低的营收增速,因为公司看到美国这里可能存在潜在问题,用户似乎对内容有点厌倦,可能也对涨价感到不满。

This comes as the company announced third-quarter earnings of $12.0 billion, with revenue growth of 12% year-over-year, which is in line with expectations. The guidance they gave for the next quarter was also, well, I don't know, a little weak .

As you know, the results came in at $51 billion, and the consensus was exactly at that point . You were hoping for some kind of superior performance and higher expectations , but you didn't actually get that with Netflix.

This was actually the lowest revenue growth rate in three years , as the company sees potential activity here in the US, where users appear to be a little fed up with the content and possibly with the price increases as well.

现在,Equity Empire 这边有个有趣的东西:我有一个信号生成器,Netflix 属于我所说的“待售信号”。这是一个组合,不是基于技术分析,而是基于基本面分析,我们看公司的基本面,特别是电话会议和我付费购买的一些其他数据。

事实上,为了 Apple 的“待售”指标,我每年仅为一个数据集就支付330美元。对 Netflix 来说,有趣的是该股处于52周最低水平,Equity Empire 的订阅者和信号生成器将能够查看这些信号是否与 Netflix 便宜相符,还是应该再等一个季度。

我的意思是,下一季度还可以接受。他们的预测是134亿美元。问题在于,各个层面的数据都略低于预期。增速略弱。而且营业利润率,也就是你的利润,作为营业利润率只有26%。这远低于30%,尽管第四季度往往,至少在这种情况下,有点疲弱,也许是因为 NFL 赛季。

Now, there's something interesting on the Equity Empire side: I have a signal producer, and Netflix falls into what I call a "signal for sale". This is a combination, and this is not based on technical analysis, but is actually fundamental analysis where we look at the company's fundamentals, specifically conference calls and some other data that I pay for.

In fact, for Apple’s “For Sale” indicator, I pay $330 a year for just one dataset there. With Netflix, what will be interesting is that the stock is at its lowest level in 52 weeks, and Equity Empire subscribers and the signal producer will be able to check whether the signals are in line with Netflix being cheap or if you should wait for another quarter.

I mean, the next quarter was acceptable. Their forecast is $13.4 billion. The problem is that everything is coming in slightly less than expected on all levels. The growth rate is slightly weak.

But also your operating margins , which are clearly your profits, amounted to only 26% as operating margins. This is well below 30%, although the fourth quarter tends to be, at least in this case, a little weak, perhaps because of the NFL season .

但 Netflix 的战略转变是显而易见的;他们任命了一位新的内容负责人。我在 Equity Empire 做 Netflix 视频时谈到的一件事是,现在 Netflix 似乎有很多人参与决策。

你有两位 CEO。你有一位从 Disney 过来接管内容管理的新人。这里的领导层很多。你需要一个人来掌控全局。那才是 Netflix 的辉煌时期。我认为,在出现上涨行情之前,他们必须先统一这里的领导层。

But the shift in strategy at Netflix is evident; they have a new head of content that they have appointed. One of the things I talked about on the Equity Empire side when I made the Netflix video is that it seems like you have a lot of cooks in the kitchen right now with Netflix.

You have two CEOs. You have a new person coming in from Disney to take over content management. There's a lot of leadership here. You need one person to run the show. Those were the glory days of Netflix.

I think they will have to unify the leadership here before you get an upward move.

现在,像 Netflix 这样的科技公司可能也属于这一类,但最有可能的是 Amazon,尤其是 Google,也许还有 Apple,我不确定,但也许还有 Disney,以及像 Comcast 和 Fox 这样的传统有线电视公司,它们都在竞标这些版权。

Now, technology companies like Netflix may be in this boat, but most likely you have Amazon, and Google in particular, and maybe Apple too, I do n't know, but maybe Disney too, along with traditional cable companies like Comcast and Fox, who are bidding for these rights.

Netflix 明确公布了财报,并在下跌趋势中创下新低。这是你能看到的最难看的图表。你在那里寻找转机,但从技术面看似乎还不存在。

Netflix clearly announced its earnings, and recorded a new low in a downward trend. This is as ugly a graph as you can see. You're looking for a transformation there, but it doesn't seem to exist technically yet.

观察点

下一份季报:营收对比 134 亿美元的指引,以及营业利润率
营收未达 134 亿美元,且利润率仍低于 30%
下一季度季度财报
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