在股价65.60美元、公允价值114.60美元（低估75%）的背景下，他对NFLX更为乐观，并可能在第四季度前加仓，使持仓接近约20%的组合上限。支撑理由：原创内容、十年间营收增长逾5倍至500亿美元、营业利润率创下31.7%的纪录、2027年增长被解读为8%–12%的“强劲”水平；风险：自由现金流被削减、广告/体育/短视频。

Netflix announced its quarterly financial results yesterday after the stock markets closed, and investors were not impressed with what they saw. Today, after the company made this announcement, the shares fell by more than 4.5%.

Overall, stocks fell by more than 30% in 2026. At the heart of investors' concerns lies the slowdown in viewer engagement, which came in at low rates. However, there was much to understand about what Netflix announced in its last quarter.

There were some interesting details about the company's advertising activity that were not positive. There was an adjustment to their free cash flow estimates for 2026, and hints about a strong 2027.

So, I wanted to share all those details and my perspective as a Netflix shareholder. Remember, it's the largest asset in my investment portfolio. What I will do with those shares , whether I will increase or sell them, and my updated estimate of the fair value of Netflix shares after absorbing what management announced for the last quarter.

Netflix directly states that the cornerstone of their long-term strategy is original content produced by Netflix. Shows and movies such as Stranger Things , Squid Game, Bridgerton, and the original House of Cards that started it all.

They explained, "These pieces of content stand out from the rest. They attract new members. They increase their advertising revenue. They satisfy their existing members and enhance the overall value of Netflix."

This is the main reason why I am a contributor to Netflix; Their ability to create and deliver original content, films and shows that subscribers and viewers love to follow. This is the main reason why I am an investor in Netflix stock.

Approximately 95% of their spending and almost all of their revenue are directed towards this core, in which they see ample room for future growth. I agree that there is ample room for future growth.

The number of people canceling cable and satellite subscriptions is in the millions. They are switching to live streaming instead. This is a supportive structural trend that will continue for many more years as developing economies continue to improve internet speeds and their ability to deliver this type of high- bandwidth content via streaming.

Netflix has talked a lot about engagement, and they have said that they view overall engagement as the total real value they provide to members. This includes the quality, quantity, and variety of viewing.

One way to think about this, for example, is to look at some of these shows like "Friends " or "The Office," which people might sometimes play on the TV as background music while they do laundry, housework, or anything else.

Perhaps the students. I see many college students doing their homework in the library, leaving "The Office" playing in the background on their laptops. They don't really watch it, but it works and they take a look at it from time to time .

But this is a different kind of viewing. This is a lower quality and value compared to a live sporting event, such as the Thanksgiving Eve football game they are planning this year.

This is higher-value content that subscribers appreciate more, and they are more willing to pay for a Netflix subscription for this type of content compared to older content such as "The Office," "Friends," or other shows that people might play as background music , as they are not of the same high quality.

This is how I see it when Netflix talks about overall engagement as the sum of quality, quantity, and variety of viewing. Not all viewing hours are created equal. Some views and some engagement are more valuable than others, and Netflix is trying to convey this point to investors, while investors are mainly focused on the number, aren't they?

We saw that figure for 2025, where interaction growth was around 1.5%, and in 2026 the figures we got for the first half of the year were also in the low single digits range . This is the number that investors are focusing on, and it is driving a lot of negative sentiment.

Investors are concerned that Netflix is not providing enough value to its customers, that it will not attract new subscribers, that existing subscribers will cancel their subscriptions at an increasing rate, and that Netflix will not be able to raise subscription prices because the engagement figure is low in the eyes of investors.

Therefore , viewers are not getting good value from their Netflix subscription.

This is fear. This is the story that is driving Netflix shares to their lowest level in 52 weeks. But Netflix explained that the cancellation rate in the third quarter, both globally and in the United States, had improved compared to last year.

The ultimate determinant they see as delivering value, and the ultimate determinant of their ability to deliver that value, is the reaction to price changes. In other words, Netflix is looking at the number of people who canceled their subscriptions after the price increase to determine the value subscribers perceive.

If many do not cancel their subscriptions as a result of the price increase, Netflix considers this an indication that people find the value attractive compared to what they pay for subscribing to Netflix.

What they saw in the latest round of price increases was that the results were consistent with previous changes and their expectations.

We also got some insights into the fourth quarter, which is still ongoing, and they won't release their fourth-quarter report until about 3 months from now. But they pointed out that they had already started the fourth quarter strongly, because their content was resonating well with consumers.

They highlighted their 2027 lineup , which includes "Narnia," "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," some exciting football games, and NFL games.

Those live events, from NFL games and boxing matches to other sporting events , have proven to add significant subscriber growth to Netflix. This is what they mean by the value of interaction.

The person who joins in or watches an NFL game gets far more value than simply letting "The Office" play in the background for a few hours.

And I thought this was important too. There is a lot of negative sentiment among investors, and a lot of anxiety surrounding Netflix, to the point that there is talk of Netflix needing to take dramatic steps to make huge changes.

And here the management says that their work is going wonderfully, isn't it? Their specific mechanism of action is effective. There is no need for a radical shift in strategy. They just need to perform better in the United States; their content worldwide is largely successful.

I think if you look at the bigger picture and examine their numbers, you're bound to agree with the management team. The company's revenue has increased more than 5 times in the past decade, from less than 10 billion to 50 billion .

Their operating profit margins are at record levels and they lead the industry by a wide margin at 31.7%. They are the most profitable streaming service provider . They have the largest number of subscribers compared to any other streaming company.

Work is progressing relatively well. It's just slowing down, and the growth of the reaction is slowing down. Isn't that so? These are incremental and marginal things that need improvement, not a complete change in how the company delivers value to its customers.

So, this is the part that was encouraging for me because I was worried about a significant slowdown in revenue in 2027. But here they said they expect to achieve strong revenue growth during 2027.

And you know , I've been going over the transcripts of the conference calls. I may have reviewed, I don't know, a thousand or more of them during the past several years, or roughly the past decade, as I have been covering publicly traded companies full- time.

When the management team says " strong revenue growth," it means at least 5%, in my experience. Isn't that so? Because if the growth wasn't at least 5% or if it was close to the low single digits , like the breakeven point perhaps, they would just say: "Do you know?"

"We expect to grow next year." Isn't that so? So, they will tell investors something like: "We are not at risk of a downturn." "We are not at risk of a decline in revenue." " We expect to grow next year." Good?

From my point of view , and my interpretation of management language, this would mean growth in the low single digits, between 1% and 5%, wouldn't it? But when they say strong revenue growth, that to me means at least 6% and could even reach double digits, right?

They're not sure it'll be a double digit next year, are they? If it were going to reach 15% or more, they would have told investors that we expect to achieve double-digit growth next year .

Then you can interpret that as 13%, 15%, or 17 %, but it will certainly be a double digit. This is not the case here. So , they don't know for sure whether it will be a double digit.

It may be so, but it may also be in the high singles category.

So, this is my interpretation of what they've said so far regarding 2027. Therefore, my initial estimate of the revenue growth I think they'll achieve for 2027 is between 8% and 12%, revenue growth for 2027 based on what they've said here on this call.

They have discussed this matter here. They say: We know there are questions about the growth of their viewing hours , and we want to increase viewing hours faster. But they also say that this is not necessarily necessary to achieve revenue growth.

In other words, investors, I know you are very focused on this one metric, but this metric is not everything in our business, is it ? We can still grow and add subscribers without necessarily increasing viewer engagement.

That would be an accelerating factor. That would be a good addition , but it's not the foundation.

This is the big motivator I see when they announce the fourth quarter results. In fact, they didn't want to go into too much detail about 2027. They just gave us those vague statements which I interpreted the way I interpret things based on my experience.

But between 2024 and 2027, they will provide more guidance in their next conference call. That could be a great incentive. If they come to investors and tell us that they expect revenue growth of at least 10% next year , I think that will raise the share price.

But if they vaguely tell us that the percentage might range between 8 and 12%, for example, that could put more pressure on the stock. So, this is something I look forward to when the company announces its results. That will certainly be a significant event .

In the long run, they are already saying so. Look, when they know or are confident of achieving double-digit growth, they will announce it. So, in the long run, they talk about their goals, looking to maintain double- digit revenue growth, expand profit margins, and increase free cash flow.

That's what I shared with you; they've been doing that for a long time. Quoting from one of their main series, "The Squid Game, " as the main character said, they had played these games before.

They have expanded their profit margins over the past decade. They are at record levels. They have increased their revenues more than 5 times over the past decade. So , they've done this before .

They know how to create and deliver content that viewers love to follow. This is something they are good at doing. It is a core competency for Netflix that arguably puts it at least one step ahead of the competition.

Now, there are areas where they lack strength, namely sports and short-form content. So, these are the two areas where Netflix is investing and paying more attention to expanding its capabilities, because this is a new area of competition for Netflix that really took off last year with regard to sports, as a lot of sports content entered rival streaming platforms in 2026.

So, Netflix's lack of sports was at the heart of the concern as more sports moved to their streaming competitors. Then the proliferation of short-form content over the past three years or so in TikTok, YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels really highlighted where consumer attention is rapidly turning.

Growth in viewership in that category is increasing very rapidly, and Netflix's lack of strong offerings there is also reflected in their results.

So, remember that Netflix only entered the field of original content about a decade ago . While its competitors have been working in this field for many decades , some for almost a century.

Thus, in that relatively short period, Netflix made great strides in that category. But they also still obtain licenses for subtitles that complement their original content.

I am pleased to see competitors like Disney willing to license their content to Netflix. That's a great signal for investors. That particular deal with Disney was launched in October.

I've brought all the Ice Age movies to Netflix along with a host of other Disney movies and series and some upcoming films. They are already experiencing great success here. Because these five Ice Age movies are all currently in their top 10 most-watched movies list. So, great news there for Netflix.

She spoke about how their partnerships with competitors are great news because they reduce the likelihood of competition that harms investors. You know the kind of competition you see with electric car companies in China where they simply cut prices and wage war against each other and say, "Who cares about our profits?

We just want to eliminate you. We want to cut prices, take your market share, and drive you out of business because we don't want you in our field." This type of war is harmful to investors regardless of who wins; everyone comes out badly wounded.

But that's not what you see in the broadcasting industry, and it hasn't been the case for most of the past seven years or so since new competitors joined . Netflix did not overreact and go to war with all these streaming service providers.

And so the relationships remained strong, which is why you see Netflix achieving record profit margins even with increasing competition.

They also announced a deal with Globo in Brazil . So, another content license agreement. It is the biggest deal between them, and in Latin America, Globo has a wide reach, and these two deals already show signs of increased viewer engagement on Netflix.

But of course, it's a bit complicated because all their suppliers are also their competitors. Therefore, it is a complex relationship that must be managed between Netflix and all of its competitors and suppliers.

But they were doing it relatively well. Isn't that so?

The proof of this is that you do n't see price wars , but in fact you see all streaming service providers raising prices. This is a good sign of the health of the industry, as they are not at war with each other by lowering prices, trying to gain market share, eliminating each other, and driving each other out of business .

So this is a good sign for investors that the management team can handle such a complex and sensitive issue with , in my view, amazing success, and that the health of the industry is strong and getting stronger.

So, one of the obstacles during the quarter was an execution challenge related to their advertising business. They are currently slightly behind their ambitious target for this year, but they are still growing their advertising activity by more than 80% this year.

There were some delays in the rollout and integration of partners for some of those new advertising products. And remember that Netflix only recently introduced an advertising category to its service.

For more than a decade, they resisted including ads, so this is a new product they are just launching, and it's not something where you just press a button and suddenly become a multi-billion dollar advertising business overnight.

Developing these integration processes, the technology behind them, measurement, reporting, and relationships with advertisers requires a long time. All of this requires time to develop, and it is not an easy or straightforward matter. It's not something that happens automatically.

So, it's something that investors are watching very closely, and when they see indicators like these, it increases the risk that, you know, you may not be able to launch this advertising activity as successfully as we thought. This certainly increases those risks.

So, they are working to increase the availability of measurement and reporting, but the good news is that overall demand remains strong. The number of advertisers continues to expand, and advertisers want their new products and features.

They are focused on bringing these matters up as quickly as possible.

This also plays into the long- term opportunity for Netflix, since ultimately, if their advertising platform becomes successful enough, they may be able to launch a free, ad-supported service.

If you want to talk about growth in viewer engagement, that would be a huge incentive for Netflix to expand its global reach.

If you can offer a free, ad-supported service in a way that is incrementally positive for the business and does not devour existing subscribers, while expanding its reach and achieving an average revenue per user similar to what it would have been if they had charged the same customer a monthly fee, because they are now generating revenue from the ads they display that is equivalent to what they would have generated from a $5 or $10 monthly fee, then the value proposition for the customer becomes much better because they are getting a free service in exchange for watching some ads.

They have the option to upgrade to an ad-free service if that's what they want, but this growing choice will really expand their reach, especially outside the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK— more mature economies where disposable personal income is much greater than in some of the less developed economies in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

Therefore, developing these advertising capabilities also leads to that great long-term opportunity .

I contacted the investor relations department regarding something I felt was missing during the call, which was any discussion about short-form content and competition from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts, how viewers are spending more time watching this content, and whether it poses a threat—of course it does —but how big of a threat to Netflix.

How does management view this? Do they also see this as a potential opportunity to introduce and expand the distribution of their own short-form content ? I mean clips of popular movies and shows that are then linked to the full version of the movie or show.

One more thing, management lowered its estimates for the amount of free cash flow they expect to achieve this year. They reduced it from $12.5 billion to $12 billion.

Therefore, I have lowered my estimate of the amount of free cash flow I expect the company to generate this year by 500 million, which is the same amount by which management has lowered its estimate.

I also lowered my estimates for future free cash flow as a result of the slow rollout of their ad-supported packages and the monetization process .

All these changes, i.e., my revisions, have resulted in a decrease in my estimate of Netflix's intrinsic value of about $4 per share. Therefore, I now value the company at $114.60.

The stock price is falling today. It is now $65.60. I believe the stock is undervalued by a staggering 75%. And you can understand why Netflix is the biggest asset in my investment portfolio.

After seeing these results , I became more optimistic about Netflix stock, and I am likely to add to my current position before the company announces its Q4 results, in the period between now and when the company announces its Q4 results.

As a general rule, I don't like to allocate more than 20% of my portfolio to any single stock. Approximately 20% is the maximum. I can see myself getting Netflix to that maximum allocation in the portfolio before the company announces its fourth-quarter results.

Therefore, I am likely to reach my limit and invest my full weight in Netflix stock between now and the company’s fourth-quarter report.

If you are a subscriber to the channel, you may have seen that I did a live stream to cover Netflix's quarterly financial results . I did a live broadcast for about an hour in which I delved into the company's results and answered questions from channel subscribers.

Netflix has been ranked as one of the top 10 stocks you can buy right now, and today, after evaluating the company's results, I will reiterate my top 10 stock recommendation.