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$NFLX

$NFLX · Schwab Network · 2026-10-28

AI 摘要 · Schwab Network

说话者长期看空 Netflix——图表糟糕、不喜欢迪士尼内容管理者的聘用——但预计只会出现短期超卖反弹,受看涨期权活动和 RSI 低点支撑;反弹需要升破约 66,且这是短期交易,而非长期反转。

他说的是几周内
《The Big 3: NFLX, LULU, WMT》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-28 · 6 段内容
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6 段内容
0:543:03

说到已经公布财报的公司,也就是Netflix,它的表现有点令人失望。与过去几年我们看到的Netflix的一些表现相比,这不算是一次大幅抛售,但我们仍然更接近了。我们现在实际上处于52周以来的最低点,那么你对Netflix关注的是什么?

Well, speaking of a name that has already announced its earnings, namely Netflix, whose performance has been a bit disappointing . I mean, it wasn't a huge sale compared to some of the performance we've seen from Netflix over the past few years, but we're still much closer.

I mean , we're actually at our lowest point in 52 weeks now, so what are you watching for Netflix?

是的,你知道吗?我的第一笔交易实际上会是一笔乐观的买入。现在,在Ben为此攻击我之前,听着,我对这只股票的长期走势绝对是悲观的。不是那样的,这是一张糟糕的图表。Netflix转身从迪士尼聘请了一位内容经理,我对此并不感到兴奋。

Yes, you know? My first deal will actually be an optimistic buy. Now, before Ben attacks me for this, look, I am definitely pessimistic about the stock in the long term. It's not like that , it's a terrible graph.

I'm not thrilled that Netflix turned around and hired, you know, a content manager from Disney.

这很残酷,但与此同时,看涨期权活动非常巨大。我认为我们目前处于超卖区域,我只是在寻找那种典型的反弹。对于那些不懂交易员语言的人来说,这意味着我们经常谈论的那种暴涨。就是那种巨大的、突然的上涨。

同样,过去两天买入合约的活动也支持这一点。有很多交易员在当前价格范围之外(价外)买入一些买入合约。所以,我在这里所做的只是一笔追求反弹的短线交易。

It's brutal , but at the same time, there has been a tremendous amount of call options activity. I think we are currently in oversold territory , and I am just looking for that typical bounce-off.

For those who don't speak the language of traders, this means that meteoric rise we often talk about. It's just that kind of huge, sudden rise. Again , there is activity in buy contracts over the past two days that supports this.

There are many traders who buy some buy contracts outside the current price range (Out of the money). So, what I'm doing here is simply a short-term trade in pursuit of that bounce.

这笔交易的到期日是11月20日。我们只是会到11月20日,对吧?不到一个月。我会以63的价格买入看涨期权。作为回报,我会以66的价格卖出看涨期权。这笔交易以90美分的折价成本执行。

风险回报比是合理的,但我们需要价格移动到66区域上方,这很有可能。再次强调,我们处于非常超卖的区域,但在你攻击我之前,这只是一笔交易。这只是一笔短线交易。从长远来看,我明白。我明白。

This deal will have an expiry date of November 20th. We'll just reach November 20th, right ? A little less than a month . I will buy call options at a price of 63. I will sell call options at a price of 66 in return .

This transaction was carried out at a discounted cost of 90 cents. The risk-to- reward ratio is reasonable, but we need a move above the 66 area, which is very likely. Again, we are in a very oversold area , but before you attack me, it's just a deal.

It's just a short-term deal. In the long run, I understand it. I understand that.

你看到证据表明这种超卖状况可能真的开始为实质性反弹提供支撑,还是我们可能会看到不幸持续了这么久的下跌趋势继续下去?

do you see evidence that this level of oversold condition may actually begin to provide support for a tangible rebound, or may we see a continuation of the slide down that we have unfortunately been experiencing for so long?

是的,如你所知,我完全不反对Don在这里提出的想法。我认为下行压力非常过度,你看到相对强弱指数(RSI)在几个不同场合处于这种超卖状态,而股票对此做出了反应。但我认为从长远来看,你应该问一个更大的问题。

这是Netflix总是问别人的问题:你还在看吗?我认为这有可能动摇一些悲观主义者,因为我们在几个不同场合看到了这些强劲而突然的飙升。我们在今年早些时候看到了,在最新财报公布后,我们也看到了,就在我们两天前刚刚跌破的65点附近的同一支撑位。

所以,如果发生反弹,股票开始因任何原因升至该水平之上,无论是由于对Netflix在内容方面所做改变的一些兴奋。然而,你有相对强弱指数(RSI),它几乎登记了不久前测试的相同低点。

我就这么称呼它,在这里我会在这个问题上支持“Don”。我会称之为隐藏的看涨背离,因为你得到了更低的低点,但你在RSI中得到了一个更平的低点。我认为这表明在那个低水平有一点盘整,也许是为了以较低成本可能的方向性移动。

事情是这样的:我们发布财报,所以波动性很低。如果那种强劲而突然的上涨到来,我们通常不会看到波动性随着大幅上涨而飙升,但我认为这是一种你可能看到波动性伴随价格上升而增加的情景。

Yes, as you know, I am not at all opposed to the idea that Don is putting forward here. I mean , I think the fact that there was downward pressure was very excessive, and you saw the Relative Strength Index (RSI ) in this oversold condition on a few different occasions, and the stock was responding to that.

But I think you should ask a bigger question in the long run . This is the question that Netflix always asks others: Are you still watching? And I think this has the potential to shake off some of these pessimists, because we have seen these strong and sudden spikes on a few different occasions.

We saw it earlier in the year, and we saw it after the latest earnings announcement at the same support level that we just broke two days ago at around the 65 mark . So, if a bounce occurs and the stock starts to rise above that level for any reason, whether it's due to some excitement about the changes Netflix is making to its content side .

However, you have the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which is registering almost the same low it tested a little while ago. I'll call it that , and here I'll support "Don" in this matter.

I would call that a hidden bullish divergence because you got lower lows, but you got an even bottom in the RSI. I think this suggests there is a little consolidation at that low level, perhaps for a possible directional move at a lower cost.

Here's the thing: we publish earnings announcements, so volatility is low. If that strong and sudden rise comes, we do n't usually see spikes in volatility with large upward moves , but I think this is one scenario where you might see an increase in volatility alongside the price.

这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 14 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

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