$NFLX · The Acquirers Podcast · 2026-10-29
按此价格，Netflix 的估值具有吸引力，它能够重新产出优质内容，且并未失去内容优势。其自由现金流回报约为 4%，并很可能在很长一段时间内以快于 GDP 的速度增长；问题可以解决，业务回报率高。YouTube 是其最大威胁，也是争夺观看时长的主要竞争对手，其内容比 Netflix 广泛而浅显的内容更窄、更深。说话者并未持股，但称其有趣；鉴于波动性，期权权利金不错，回购也有效。
逐段跳播
你看过 Netflix 吗？是的，而且在《Value Options》简报里，有一些关于 Netflix 股票的交易。
Have you ever looked at Netflix ? Okay . Yes, and in the "Value Options" bulletin, there were some trades on Netflix stock.
我记得在 Netflix 估值非常高的时候谈过它，我记得我说过，我认为 YouTube 的价值远高于 Netflix。
I remember talking about Netflix when it was trading at a very high valuation , and I remember saying that I thought YouTube was worth much more than Netflix.
然后，Netflix 也遇到了许多大型电视网同样遇到的情况：你会看到很多政治性或猎奇的故事，这些内容未必符合人们想看的。这可能有点争议。你得不到同样的多样性。你其实不需要坐下来看那些节目才能享受它们。
Then, you know, with Netflix, the same thing that happened with a lot of the big networks happens, where you get a lot of political or exotic stories that don't necessarily fit what people want to see.
This could be a bit controversial. You don't get the same variety. You don't really need to sit and watch those programs to enjoy them.
《怪奇物语》是一部非常棒的电视剧。至于《鱿鱼游戏》，他们最近没有取得那样压倒性的成功。已经过去几季了。你觉得一部大片能让他们重新回到聚光灯下吗？这是他们需要的吗？
Stranger Things was a really great TV series. As for " Squid Game," they haven't achieved such overwhelming success recently. A few seasons have passed. Do you think a blockbuster movie will bring them back into the spotlight? Is this what they need?
不，我不认为那是解决办法。我认为他们需要更多改变。我真的不知道。我认为直播节目有助于留住订阅用户，但我认为他们需要几个成功的节目。他们肯定需要回到原来的状态。
No, I don't think that's the solution. I think they need more change. I really don't know. I think live programs are useful in retaining subscribers , but I think they need a few successful acts.
They definitely need to get back to where they were.
我记得刚开始看 Netflix 时，我很喜欢他们的很多国际作品。比如，他们在意大利有一些非常棒的节目。我喜欢那部叫《格莫拉》的意大利黑手党剧。这是我最喜欢的电视剧。它绝对精彩。
还有一部叫《苏博拉》的剧。他们也有一些不错的德国作品。但我现在很少看到这类内容了。我觉得目前这类内容更多出现在其他电视网上。现在情况有点不同了。很多类似的内容。他们有很多纪录片，我觉得自己已经看过了，比如关于 Mike Tyson 的那部和其他一些。
那些东西我已经看过了。还有《最后之舞》这部剧，你知道的。
I remember when I started watching Netflix, I loved a lot of their international work. For example, they had some really great programs in Italy. I loved the Italian mafia series called " Gomorrah".
It's my favorite TV series. It was absolutely fantastic. There is another series called " Suburra". They also had some good German works. But I don't see much of this type of content anymore.
I feel that this exists on other networks more often at the moment . Now things are a little different . A lot of similar content. They have a lot of documentaries that I feel I've already seen, like the one about Mike Tyson and others.
I have already seen those things . And the series " The Last Dance," as you know.
但 Toby，我认为他们的评级非常有吸引力。我认为在这个价格上，他们能够重新制作出强有力的内容。我不认为他们在制作优质内容的能力上已经失去了优势。
But I think their rating is very attractive, Toby. I think that at this price they can return to producing strong content. I don't think they've lost their edge in terms of their ability to produce good content.
他们需要像 Taylor Sheridan 这种水准的人，只是为了……是的。他制作了一些成功的作品。那家伙在 Paramount 干得很出色。
They need someone of Taylor Sheridan's caliber just to... yes. He produces some successful works. I mean, that guy did a great job with Paramount.
是的，当他们取得巨大成功时，他们似乎能够制作大量政治性内容，而这些内容似乎并没有真正很大的市场。但我想知道，当他们承受一点压力、开始变得更商业化，并开始制作有大众吸引力的内容时，会怎样？
我认为这将会发生，他们必须在各个方面都变得更商业化，发行范围也要稍微更广一些。
Yes, when they achieve great success, they seem to be able to produce a lot of political content that doesn't seem to have a really large market. But I wonder, when they come under a little pressure and start to become more commercial, and start to produce content with mass appeal?
I think that's what will happen, and they will have to become more commercial in every sense, with a slightly wider distribution.
但我认为我同意你的看法。我认为这里的估值已经变得有点意思了。我记得上次看的时候，自由现金流回报率大约在4%左右，你知道的，这稍微低了一点。
But I think I agree with you. I think the evaluation has become somewhat interesting here. I think the free cash flow return the last time I looked at it was around 4%, which, as you know, is a little less
因此，它很可能会进一步增长。他上一次达到这个水平大概是在2011年。不过，自那以后它显然已经实现了很大的增长，现在剩下的增长空间不多了，但我仍然认为，它很可能在很长一段时间内以高于 GDP 的速度增长。
Therefore, it is likely to grow even more. The last time he reached this level was probably in 2011. However, it has clearly seen a lot of growth since then, and there isn't much growth left now, but I still think it's probably going to grow faster than GDP for a long time.
这里的现金流回报非常好。问题是可以解决的。这是一门收益率很高的生意。所以，这属于那种我没有持股、但我认为值得一看的有趣股票。
Very good cash flow return here. The problems are solvable. It is a very high- yield business . So, it's one of those things where I don't have a stake, but I think it's an interesting stock to look at.
但我同意你的看法，他们最大的威胁，也肯定是我时间上的主要竞争对手，是 YouTube。看 YouTube 要好得多，因为它能更窄、更深地挖掘你的兴趣，而不是 Netflix 提供的那种宽泛、肤浅的内容。
But I agree with you that their biggest threat, and certainly the main competitor for my time, is YouTube. It's much better to watch YouTube because it can delve into your interests much narrower and deeper, rather than the broad, superficial content offered by Netflix.
所以 Netflix 的期权不错。我们在 Value Options 消息里做过一些交易。看跌期权有很好的权利金，因为这只股票波动很大。
so the options are good on Netflix. We have made some trades in the Value Options message. The puts have a good premium because the stock was very volatile.
这就是我喜欢 wheel 策略的原因；如果你的期权被行权，你可以卖出备兑看涨期权，而对于 Netflix 这样的股票，我认为它不分红，或者即使分，金额也很小。你可以通过卖出备兑看涨期权收取权利金，为股票获得一些上行保护。
这是一只不错的股票。但有一小部分回购，我认为这是最有效的做法。
That's why I like the wheel strategy; If your option is exercised, you can sell covered call options , and for a stock like Netflix, I do n't think it distributes dividends, or if it does, it's a small amount.
You can get some upside protection for the stock by collecting a premium from covered call options. It's a good stock. But there is a little bit of repurchase, which I see as the most effective way to do it.