$NFLX · Joseph Carlson After Hours · 2026-11-02
Netflix 被显著低估：股价 62 美元，公允价值约 100 美元，约有 60% 的上行空间，得到 4 月 107 美元和一年前 115 美元的支撑，但估值取决于执行。并无保证：若放缓和下滑持续，可能跌至 40 美元。未来两个季度至关重要，但投资者信心恢复可能使股价从 17 倍重估至 25 倍远期盈利；说话者称其为很好的机会。
逐段跳播
现在，我们来看 Netflix。Netflix 是我的第九大持仓。这个仓位在我的投资组合中曾经大得多，但 Netflix 股价已大幅下跌，跌幅接近50%。对 Netflix 投资者来说这并不新鲜。
到目前为止，我已经和 Netflix 经历过好几次大起大落。我和这家公司有些渊源。无论如何，我们在这家公司上仍然盈利约1万美元。这是29%的加权回报，但已经越来越接近我的成本基础。
And now, we move on to Netflix. Netflix is my ninth largest investment. This position was much larger in my portfolio, but Netflix stock has fallen significantly, by nearly 50%.
This is nothing new for a Netflix investor . I've had huge highs and lows with Netflix several times so far. Well, I have some history with this company. Regardless, we are still making profits in the company of around $10,000.
It's a weighted return of 29%, but it's getting closer and closer to my cost basis .
我继续加仓 Netflix，所以随着时间推移抬高了成本基础，因为我坚信 Netflix 的定价不合理。该股目前交易价为62美元。我认为公司的合理价值约为100美元，较当前价格约有60%的上涨空间。
因此，基于这一点，Netflix 被显著低估了。
I continued to add to Netflix , so I raised the cost base over time because I strongly believe that Netflix's pricing is unfair . The stock is currently trading at $62 . I believe the fair value of the company is around $100, which represents an increase of about 60% over its current price.
Therefore, based on that, Netflix is significantly undervalued .
不过，这里有一个警示。这些价格评估是基于公司的成功。现在，你们中有些人可能会说，把 Netflix 估值为100美元太疯狂了，但请记住，今年早些时候，具体来说是4月，Netflix 的交易价是107美元。
所以，并不是我在编造这家公司无法达到、或者没有机会达到的价格。我已经多次达到过这个价格。事实上，就在一年前，价格还是115美元。
However, there is a warning here. These price assessments are based on the company's success. Now , some of you might say that valuing Netflix at $100 is crazy , but remember that earlier this year, specifically in April, Netflix was trading at $107.
So, it's not as if I'm making up prices that this company can't reach or that there's no chance of reaching that price. I have reached this price several times. In fact, just a year ago, the price was $115.
当时发生变化的是围绕这家公司的叙事。叙事可以很快改变。如果Netflix连续几个季度让投资者对其未来战略更有信心，投资者就会重新给这家公司定价。股价会很快再次从17倍的远期市盈率升到25倍。这可能在很短的时间内发生。
What changed at that time was the narrative surrounding the company. Narratives can change quickly. If Netflix achieves a few consecutive quarters in which investors become more confident in their strategy going forward, investors will reprice the company.
The stock will quickly move from a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17 to 25 again. This can happen in a short period of time.
目前没有任何保证。Netflix也可能进一步下跌。如果它继续面临增长放缓和下滑，股价可能跌到每股40美元。所以，这在很大程度上取决于接下来两个季度，但我个人认为这是一个很好的机会。
Right now, there are no guarantees. Netflix could also drop even further. It could reach $40 per share if they continue to face a slowdown and decline. So, a lot of this will depend on the next two quarters, but personally I think this is a great opportunity.
观察点
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。