NG 在形成圆弧底后具备长期买入价值；只要价格维持在 21 EMA（2.942）之上，该论点就依然成立。
逐段跳播
接下来我们看 NG。这是周线图上的 NGX 26。一个有意思的转折正在形成。那波下行走势预计会出现在 914 到 1019 之间。日线柱明显在试图构筑一个圆弧底。看那面正在回踩这些 EMA 的旗形。
就看这个交叉点。这很可能就是关键的一天，当你回头看时会说：“嘿，那天到底发生了什么？如果我想参与进去，我该在哪里进场？”嗯，很可能就是在这一天，因为你可以看到价格跌破了 EMA。
你又回来了。而且你收在最高价。自那以后，天然气基本上就是一路上涨。
Let's move on to NG. This is NGX 26 on the weekly chart. An interesting twist is forming. That downward trend is expected to occur between 914 and 1019. The daily bar is clearly trying to form a rounded bottom.
Look at the flag that is coming back towards those EMAs. Just look at this intersection. This is probably the pivotal day, when you look back and say, "Hey, what happened that day, right?
If I wanted to participate in it , where would I have been involved ?" Well, it probably would have been on this day, because you can see that you traded below the EMA. You are back again.
And you closed at the highest price. And since that time, we've basically gone straight up in natural gas.
所以，如果你在这里看它，只用日线柱，你可以看这些前期高点然后说：“嗯，每当我们开始回到那些高点时，你手上很可能就有一个下行限制。”或者至少这可能是整体的思路。而你正在看下一次改善。
嗯，它不该做什么？再说一次，我一直是这么看的。如果我想长期投资这个标的，我不该让它做什么？它不该再回到 2.942 处的 21 EMA，对吧？
So, if you look at it here and just use the daily bar, you can look at these old highs and say , "Well, whenever we start to go back to those highs , you probably have a downside limit on your hands."
Or at least that might be the overall idea. And you are looking at the next improvement. Well, what shouldn't it do? Again, that's how I always see it. If I want to invest in this name for the long term, what should I not do with it?
It shouldn't be coming back to that 21 EMA at 2.942, right?
所以，这正是我所做的。我会长期持有这里，而不是那里。这只是一个例子。还有另一种做法。你可以对着 21 EMA 来做。我知道很多人实际上也这么做。他们，你知道，他们会对着 30 分钟枢轴做多，也就是对着 21 EMA 做多。
风险非常低，对吧？所以，要么对要么错。你可以像我分享的那个一样把仓位放得稍大一些，但你仍然需要一个清晰的结构性止损，来表明它不该回到这个区域，从而让你的想法依然成立，对吧？无论你想怎么做，那只是两个例子，但我们需要看到它们，对吧？
因为它为什么有意思？看那些旧的摆动高点和摆动低点，对吧？它永远不会让你困惑。是不是？看那个对着该区域形成的枢轴，对吧？就在 296 附近。看它做了什么。它看到了那个区域，然后又回来了。
这是需要观察的一件重要事情。就是这样。你转身了。所以，这就是你等待它转身的理由，也是为什么那是天然气中重要的一天，而且你知道，那绝对是一个值得尝试的有利位置。你永远不会确切知道。
你知道，这里没有保证，但你是在对着一个明显的结构性止损或结构性限制来尝试。那才是最重要的事情。
So, that's exactly what I did. I would live here long term vs. here. This is just an example. There is another way to do this. You can do this against the 21 EMA. I know many people who actually do that too.
They, you know, they will go long against the 30-minute pivot, that is, against the 21 EMA. Very low risk, right? So, it is either right or wrong. You can keep it a bit larger like the one I shared, but you still need a clear structural stop that will indicate that it shouldn't return to this area to keep your idea viable, right?
Whatever you want to do , those are just two examples, but we need to see them, right ? Because why was it interesting? Look at the old swing highs and swing lows, right ? It will never confuse you.
Isn't that right ? Look at the pivot formed against that zone , right? Right around 296. Look what it did. It saw that zone and came back again. This is an important thing to observe.
And this is it. You turned around. So, that was your rationale for waiting for it to turn around and why that was an important day in natural gas, and you know, it was definitely a favorable place to try.
You will never know for sure. You know, there are no guarantees here, but you're trying this against an obvious structural stop or structural limit. That is the most important thing.
观察点
这个频道对 $NG 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。