NKE仍处于下行趋势,相对XLY走弱,预计弱势将持续。
逐段跳播
看起来Nike无法摆脱自身的困境。我们通常看短期图表。这是一张覆盖15年的周线图。展示它的原因是,你可以看到这里的价格在三十几美元中段;我们已经很久没有处于这个水平了。最近这段路走得非常颠簸。我们的下行趋势也大体上持续稳定。
It seems that Nike cannot get out of its predicament. We usually look at short-term charts. This is a weekly chart covering 15 years. The reason for showing this is that you can see the price here in the mid-thirties; we haven't been at this level for a long time.
It has been a very bumpy road lately. Our downward trend also continues largely steadily .
展望未来,我们在这里看到的是,Nike相对于XLY非必需消费品基金明显走弱,在过去251天里下跌了52.3%。
Looking ahead, what we see here is that Nike is significantly weakening compared to the XLY discretionary consumer goods fund, having fallen 52.3% over the past 251 days,
现在我们可以看到Nike在这里向下走。我们定义的两条白线汇聚,在这里形成一个下降楔形。我们最近触及了35.16这些低位。这里接近37.41的一个相对高点很突出,是一个必须被超越的标记。
我们还有一系列低点在这里接近41的水平变成了高点。所以,对于最近一直看多这只股票的人来说,这绝对是一张艰难的图表。
Now we can see Nike heading down here. Our two defined white lines converge to form a descending wedge shape here. We recently reached those low levels of 35.16. A relative high here near 37.41 stands out as a mark that must be surpassed.
We also have a series of lows that have become highs here near the 41 level. So, it's definitely a tough chart for anyone who has been bullish on this stock lately.
我们可以看到,深蓝色的5日指数移动平均线与我们的趋势线在这里对齐。这大约在35.81。因此,基于这条非常短期的指数移动平均线,36将是一个突破点。然后我们还有月度21日指数移动平均线略高于此,刚好低于37的水平。
We can see that the 5-day exponential moving average in dark blue is aligned with our trend line here . This comes at around 35.81. Therefore, 36 would be a breakout point based on this very short-term exponential moving average .
We will then have the monthly 21- day exponential moving average slightly above that, just below the 37 level.
我们可以看到,相对强弱指数(RSI)在这里略微向上倾斜,但仍低于50的中线。我们的成交量分布图显示,我们在这里大约35.50到37之间有一个节点。这种低水平上的大成交量往往表明这是一个重要的枢轴点。
如果它被跌破,也可能导致更严重的后果。我们在这里40.50到46之间还有另一个节点,控制点在43.50。所以,大部分交易活动大致在这边。因此,可能有一些乐观者被困在这些较低的水平上。
We can see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending slightly upwards here, but it is still below the midline at 50. Our size profile shows that we have a node here between approximately 35.50 and 37 .
This large size at a low level often indicates that this is an important pivot point . If it is broken, it may also lead to more severe consequences . We had another node here between 40.50 and 46 with a control point at 43.50.
So , the bulk of the trading activity is kind of over here. Therefore, there may be some optimists stuck at these lower levels.
所以,我们周五的周度波动是正负约7.9%,基于这些财报这是一个很大的波动,但我们将关注11月,也就是我们这里的绿色方块,在此期间为正负约14.8%。
So, our weekly move for Friday is plus or minus about 7.9%, which is a big move based on these earnings, but we will focus on November, our green square here, plus or minus about 14.8% during this period.
最近的消息并不好,许多分析师最近下调了他们的目标价。因此,一笔看跌交易是在11月20日买入一个40、35、30水平的“看跌蝶式”期权,支付成本为40美分。这是一个距离到期还有50天的看跌观点。
最大亏损为40美元,也就是我们支付的成本。最大利润为460美元。如果该交易在35这个双重执行价到期,盈亏平衡点将是30.40,而这里下行的39.60将是你预期价格最终落到的区域。
因此,这笔交易的范围非常狭窄。但如果我们开始跌到远低于30.40水平左右,这笔交易可能再次转为亏损。因此,我们预计这只苦苦挣扎的股票将持续走弱。
The news hasn't been good lately, with many analysts cutting their price targets recently. Therefore, a bearish trade by buying one of the " put butterfly" on November 20 at levels 40, 35, 30, at a cost paid of 40 cents.
A bearish outlook with 50 days until expiry. The maximum loss is $40, which is the cost we paid. The maximum profit is $460. If the trade expires at the double execution price of 35 here, the breakeven point will be 30.40, while 39.60 for the downside here will be the areas where you expect the price to end.
Therefore, the scope is very narrow for this deal. But if we start to fall too far below the 30.40 level or so, this trade could turn into a loss again. Therefore, we anticipate continued weakness in this struggling stock .
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。