NKE是一家好公司，但面临负增长和结构性变化；投资者需要调整预期并匹配适当估值，以避免表现不佳。
逐段跳播
Nike 这次没有取得成功。我想让我们讨论一下 Nike 的数据，各位，因为昨天收盘后它们并不令人印象深刻。
Nike did not achieve success this time. I want us to discuss Nike's numbers, guys, because they weren't impressive after the market closed yesterday.
Nike。这些公司正在受苦，而它们受苦主要是因为那些没有多余资金的消费者，而不是那些有资金的消费者，对吧？
Nike. These companies are suffering, and they are suffering mostly because of consumers who do not have surplus funds, not those who do, right?
休息之后，我们将谈谈 Nike 的最新业绩。Nike 昨天在收盘后公布了财报，Lou，我觉得这很有意思。对投资者来说有很多教训，但该股在仅仅五年内就从最高点下跌了约 81%。他们报告称上季度营收下降了 4%，但想象一下，本财年营收预计将下降近 10%。目前看来，Nike 一切都不顺利。
After the break, we will talk about the latest results from Nike . Nike announced its earnings after the market closed yesterday, Lou, I think that's interesting. There are many lessons for investors, but the stock has fallen by about 81% from its highest level in just five years.
They reported that revenue fell by 4% in the last quarter, but imagine, revenue is expected to fall by nearly 10% for this fiscal year. It seems that nothing is going well for Nike at the moment.
不，这些错误有些是他们自己造成的，有些则超出了他们的控制。我的意思是，这件事有两面。首先，他们犯了一个可怕的错误。他们说我们不再需要零售业务了。我们只直接向消费者销售。他们烧毁了与非常重要合作伙伴的许多桥梁，这至今仍困扰着他们。
但话说回来，我也不知道这到底会不会有影响。世界已经变了。你只需要一个好用的 Instagram 网红就能推出一个品牌。这和 1980 年代不一样了，那时 Nike 只要把钱砸向大明星就能称霸。
现在有数以万亿计的品牌，你永远拿不到那样的市场份额。我不认为 Nike 会回到过去那个 Nike。我认为如果投资者想在这里看一看，他们需要重新调整预期。这家公司仍然庞大，仍然是个好品牌，它会继续存在下去。
事情永远不会和以前一样了，而且每过一个季度，打击就继续到来。
No, some of these mistakes are their own doing, and some are beyond their control. I mean, there are two sides to this story. First, they made a terrible mistake. They said we no longer need retail trade.
We will only sell directly to the consumer. They burned a lot of bridges with very important partners and this is still haunting them. But also, I don't know if it will make a difference anyway.
The world has changed. You only need one good Instagram influencer to launch a brand. It's not the same as it was in the 1980s when Nike could just pump money into big stars and dominate.
There are now trillions of brands and you will never get that market share. I don't think Nike will ever go back to being the old Nike. I think if investors want to look here, they need to readjust their expectations.
The company is still huge, it's still a good brand, and it will continue to exist. Things will never be the same again, and with each passing quarter, the blows continue.
这家公司仍然庞大，仍然是个好品牌，它会继续存在下去。事情永远不会和以前一样了，而且每过一个季度，打击就继续到来。
The company is still huge, it's still a good brand, and it will continue to exist. Things will never be the same again , and with each passing quarter, the blows continue.
是的，这仍然是一家卓越而出色的公司。作为投资者，很容易抱着这样的想法不放：该股已经下跌了 80%，于是宣称这家公司正在走向失败。它仍然是一家伟大的公司，但如今的一切都与 10 年、15 年或 20 年前不同了。
Yes, this is still an exceptional and amazing company. As investors, it's easy to cling to the idea that the stock has dropped by 80% and declare that this company is failing. It's still a great company, but everything is different now than it was 10, 15 or 20 years ago.
西方市场已经非常成熟。你知道，如果回到过去，人们并不像现在这样在那些场合穿运动鞋。因此，这块蛋糕已经增长到了它可能达到的最大规模。现在的增长已经与 GDP 同步了，不是吗？因此，任何增长快于市场的人，都只是在从别人那里抢份额。
这意味着 Nike 多年来在其主要市场上一直扮演着防守的角色。
Western markets are very mature. You know, if you go back in time , people didn't wear sneakers in the same places they wear them now. Therefore, that cake has grown to its maximum possible size.
That's growth that's in line with GDP now , isn't it? Therefore , anyone who grows faster than the market is simply taking a share from someone else. This means that Nike has been playing a defensive role in its main markets for many years already.
所以，如果把这两件事放在一起看，投资者确实应该对像 Nike 这样的公司抱有正确的预期。我不知道那些预测在四五年前、三年前，或者在 2024 年一切见顶、估值也见顶的时候，是否大体上是一致的。
So, if you put these two things together, investors really should have the right expectations about a company like Nike. I do n't know if those predictions were largely consistent four or five years ago, or three years ago, or in 2024 when everything peaked and the valuation also peaked.
作为一个打破常规的人，别误解我。我很乐意为一家人人都认为定价严重过高的公司支付高估值。但另一边必须存在一个巨大的机会，而目前 Nike 的业务并非如此。所以，要意识到这一点；它可能是一家完全不错的公司，但你现在所处的阶段是，你必须支付一个合适的估值，否则你就会走向糟糕的表现。
As a rule-breaker, don't misunderstand me. I am very happy to pay a high rating for a company that everyone thinks is grossly overpriced. But there needs to be a huge opportunity on the other side, and that's not the case for Nike's business at the moment.
So, be aware of that; It may be a perfectly good company , but you are at a stage where you have to pay a suitable valuation or you are headed for poor performance.
Jason，考虑到有些消费者过得不错、有些则不然，你对我们之前讨论的关于消费者以及他们把钱花在哪里的问题有什么看法？看起来 Nike 正朝着负面方向发展。
Jason, what are your thoughts on what we discussed earlier regarding consumers and where they spend their money, given that some are doing well and others are not? It seems that Nike is heading in a negative direction.
让我们从我们刚刚谈过的那家公司开始。就是 Nike。录制本期节目时，Nike 股价目前在 33 美元左右。昨天收盘时的价格为 35 美元。
Let's start with the company we just talked about. It's Nike. Nike stock is currently trading at around $33 at the time of recording this episode. Its price was $35 at yesterday's closing.
Jason，到 2030 年，Nike 的股价会比每股 35 美元更高还是更低？更高，而且我认为会更接近 50 美元。
Jason, in 2030, will Nike's stock be higher or lower than $35 per share? Higher, and I think it will be closer to $50.
那么，Travis，你预期年增长率是多少？这里大约是 1.18 左右。是的，预期很低，但过去五年该股本会大幅下跌。
So, Travis, what annual growth rate are you expecting? Around 1.18 or something like that here. Yes, expectations are low, but over the past five years the stock would have lost by a large margin.
我认为它会更高。我的意思是，即便是 50 美元，我也不认为它能跑赢市场。我认为它会更高，但它不会跑赢市场。这很有意思。我是一个成长型投资者，但我现在看的是一家负增长、未来市盈率仍高达 23 的公司，而我会选择“更低”。我很惊讶你们俩都没有这么选。
I think it will be higher. I mean, even $50 I do n't think it will outperform the market. I think it will be higher, but it won't outperform the market. This is funny. I am a growth investor, but I am looking at a company with negative growth and a future P/E ratio that is still 23, and I would have chosen "less". I'm surprised that neither of you did that .
我认为它会更高的原因——再说一次，起点和终点之间是有区别的，以及你如何到达那里。我认为一路上会非常动荡，但我认为它会达到一个事情正常化并拥有自身优势的时点。即便他们的利润率继续略微受到侵蚀，那种作为买方的巨大力量仍然存在，不是吗？
他们从中获得了一些影响力。所以，我认为这会有所帮助。那样的规模仍然有用，而且我仍然相信它会保持为一家非常赚钱的公司。
The reason I believe it will be higher - again, there is a difference between the starting point and the end point, and how you get there. I think things are going to be really volatile along the way, but I think it will reach a point where things normalize and have their edge.
Even if their profit margins continue to erode a little, that enormous power as a buyer is still there, isn't it? And they gain some influence from that. So, I think this will help.
That size is still useful, and I still believe it will remain a very profitable company .
我认为投资者的预期也会一路上发生一点变化，它会达到一个可接受的平衡，届时一切都会好起来。再加上 5% 的股息派发，目前在我看来这非常安全。
I think investors' expectations will change a little along the way as well, and it will reach an acceptable balance where things will be fine. Add to that a 5% dividend payout, which seems very safe to me right now.
是的，他们仍在赚钱，但几年前你对Under Armour也可以说同样的话，那时你会一直看着它说：“啊，这估值真便宜。”“这估值真便宜。”而它却持续下跌。
Yes, they're still making money, but you know, you could have said the same thing about Under Armour a few years ago where you would keep looking and saying, " Ah, that's great value."
" This is a great value." It continues to decline.
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。