NKE 跳空低开意味着投降式抛售；预计短期将反弹回补缺口，并在约 1.5 个月内触及 35 至 37 美元。
逐段跳播
我们来看一下Nike公司的走势图。情况并不令人鼓舞。在昨天晚间公布财报后，该股今早跌至13年来的最低水平。这不足以打动华尔街。
Let's focus on the Nike company chart. It's not encouraging. The stock hit its lowest level in 13 years this morning after earnings were announced late yesterday. It wasn't enough to impress Wall Street.
公司未能让投资者相信这一转型战略，尤其是在我们看到中国市场疲软的情况下——这是一个关键市场，而公司在那里正举步维艰。
The company has not succeeded in convincing investors of this transformation strategy, especially given the weakness we are seeing in China, a key market where the company is struggling.
业绩表现参差不齐，但总体而言对Nike来说令人失望。这显然不是投资者想看到的结果。
Mixed results, but generally disappointing for Nike. This was certainly not what investors wanted to see.
分析师们正在回应这种普遍的负面情绪，以及缺乏证据表明转型实际上已开始见效。还有其他一些事项摆在桌面上，比如宣布更多裁员以及新的“Peace”计划——这是一项全面财务计划，目标是在截至2031财年实现约25亿美元的累计节约，代价是10亿美元的税前费用。
Analysts are responding to the general negativity and lack of evidence that the transformation is actually beginning to bear fruit. There are also other things on the table, such as the announcement of more layoffs and the new "Peace" plan, an all-out financial plan targeting about $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal year 2031 at a cost of $1 billion in pre-tax charges.
其中大部分涉及员工。这将减少Nike的职位数量。Elliott Hill发布了一份备忘录，表示他认识到这一行动会带来不确定性，而他对此并不轻视。
Most of them relate to employees. This will reduce the number of job roles at Nike. Elliott Hill issued a memo stating that he recognizes that this action creates uncertainty, and that he does not take that lightly.
但这些裁员将于2027年开始，此前Nike已在1月裁减了800个仓库岗位，并在4月裁减了约1400个行政岗位。
But these layoffs will begin in 2027, and come after Nike already eliminated 800 warehouse jobs in January and about 1,400 administrative jobs in April.
至于数字方面，营收达到112.1亿美元，下降超过4%。这一数字低于预期。每股收益为48美分。得益于整体利润率扩大，这一数字略好于预期。
As for the numbers, revenues reached $11.21 billion, a decrease of more than 4%. It came in lower than the estimates. Earnings amounted to 48 cents per share. That was slightly better than expected thanks to a wider overall margin.
但在看到Nike全年下滑之后，这仍不足以提振投资者信心，Sam。在入选该指数近20年后，它们已被移出标普100指数。自年初以来，它们已下跌近50%。
But that wasn't enough after seeing Nike's decline throughout the year to boost investor confidence, Sam. They have been removed from the S&P 100 index after nearly 20 years in the index.
They have fallen by almost 50% since the beginning of the year.
正如我提到的，这种疲软很大程度上集中在大中华区。那里的营收下降了22%。它们在北美地区实现了2%的小幅增长，这帮助抵消了上述影响，但这充其量只是不温不火的增长。
As I mentioned, much of this weakness is concentrated in Greater China. Revenues there have decreased by 22%. They have seen a small amount of growth in the North American sector of 2%, which has helped to offset that, but it is lukewarm growth at best.
净利润与上年相比也下降了2%。富国银行将其目标股价从40美元下调至30美元。该股目前交易价为33.31美元。它们维持了“等权重”评级。
Net income also decreased by 2% compared to the previous year. Wells Fargo lowered its stock price target from $40 to $30. It is currently trading at $33.31. They have maintained an "equal-weight" rating.
它们表示，士气一如既往地低迷，但第一季度表现比预期更糟。我的意思是，预期的上限本就很低，可它们仍未超过。
They said that morale remained as weak as ever, but the first quarter was worse than expected. I mean, the ceiling of expectations was low, yet they did not exceed it.
Jordan Sportswear 在中国面临的阻力非常强劲，正导致其利润和亏损大幅下滑，前景仍不明朗。这是 Wells Fargo 的说法。
The headwinds facing Jordan Sportswear in China are very strong and are causing profits and losses to plummet, and the outlook remains unclear. That's what Wells Fargo said.
Citi 也将该股的目标价从 39 美元下调至 32 美元。他们维持了“中性”评级。他们表示，公司公布的成绩超出预期，但原因是销售疲软以及支出改善。他们表示，2023 财年高双位数的销售预测低于市场普遍预期。
并且 Nike 正在变成一个“削减成本的故事”。这是 Citi 的说法。
Citi also lowered its target price for the stock from $39 to $32. They have maintained a "neutral" rating. They say the company announced results that exceeded expectations, but due to weak sales and improved spending.
They say that the sales forecast for fiscal year 2023, which is in the high double digits, falls short of the market consensus. And that Nike is turning into a "cost-cutting story". That's what City says.
Bank of America 将该股的目标价从 30 美元下调至 24 美元。他们给出“跑输大盘”评级，并表示公司的财报显示，销售复苏的可见性仍然有限。
Bank of America lowered its target price for the stock from $30 to $24. They have an "underperform" rating, and say the company's earnings report shows that visibility on sales recovery remains limited.
我还看到 Williams Trading 的一份报告，将 Nike 的评级从“买入”下调至“持有”。他们给出的目标价为每股 30 美元，低于此前的 42 美元。
I also saw a note from Williams Trading downgrading Nike's rating from "buy" to "hold". They have a price target of $30 per share, down from $42.
他们仍然认为，Nike 正在采取他们所称的适当措施来纠正其经营做法，但问题比此前认为的更大。我认为这就是总体主题，似乎没有任何明确、真正的解决方案，至少从卖方角度来看是这样。
They still believe that Nike is taking what they call appropriate steps to correct its business practices, but the problems are bigger than previously thought. I think this is the general theme, where there doesn't seem to be any real solution that is clear, at least from the point of view of the sales side.
关于 11 月即将举行的投资者日以及公司届时会说什么，有很多讨论，Sam。所以这对 Nike 在 11 月来说是一个潜在的催化剂。
There's a lot of talk about the upcoming Investor Day in November and what the company will say there, Sam. So it's a potential incentive for Nike in November.
是的，有意思的是，BTIG 仍有一位分析师覆盖该公司。我的意思是，他们把目标价下调至 50 美元，但维持了该股的“买入”评级，正如我们昨天报道这些财报时我提到的那样。
Yes, it is interesting that they still have an insured member of the company at BTIG. I mean, they lowered the price target to $50, but they maintained a "buy" rating on the stock, as I mentioned when we were covering these earnings yesterday.
我的意思是，他们仍然认为市场需要对该股保持耐心，而他们的依据是利润率预期已经好于预期。
I mean, they still believe the market needs to be patient with this stock, and they are motivated by margin estimates that have already come in better than expected.
所以，我们仍在等待那样的复苏，但正如我所说，他们似乎仍愿意凭借“买入”评级保持耐心。非常感谢你，Marley，详细介绍了这笔交易的所有信息，该股已下跌 5%，目前为 33 美元多一点。
So, we are still waiting for that recovery, but as I said, they seem to still be willing to be patient with this "buy" rating. Thank you very much, Marley, for detailing all this information about the trade that has dropped by 5% to now be $33 and a few cents.
Sam，看今天的这个跳空缺口，我认为这是投降的信号。这是我今早的看法，当你看到从 35.5 这一水平向下的这种跳空缺口时，我们一路走低至 30 附近。我们现在正试图在这里维持一些稳定，但对我来说，这创造了一个短期机会。
Well, Sam, looking at this gap today, I think this is an indication of surrender. This is my view of it this morning, you know, when you see gaps like this from the 35.5 level down, we traded lower to around 30.
We're now trying to maintain some stability here, but for me, this creates a short-term opportunity.
我认为你会看到 Nike 在未来一个半月内回补这个缺口，并试图回升至 35 至 37 这一水平。从历史上看，当你看到这样的跳空缺口时，它们确实会被回补，尤其是考虑到市场当前也处于下行趋势。
I think you'll see Nike close this gap in the next month and a half and try to move back up to the 35 to 37 level. Historically, when you see gaps like this, they do close, especially given the prevailing downtrend in the market as well.
我认为今天交易示例的布局是买入看涨价差，从而在这种情形下明确限制风险，但最终是为了捕捉可能出现的回升并回补该缺口的走势。
I think the setup for today's trading examples is to buy the call spread to definitely limit the risk in this type of situation, but ultimately to catch a possible move to come back and close that gap.
这是今天交易的一个示例：11 月的买入价差在 32.5 至 37.5 之间，价格约为 33 美元。你可以以大约 1.60 至 1.65 美元买入。这个交易示例的风险回报比为二比一。
This is an example of today's trading: the purchase price difference for November is between 32.5 and 37.5, around a price of $33. You can buy it for approximately $1.60 to $1.65.
The risk-to-reward ratio in this trading example is two to one.
再说一次，这是一个特定的风险。因此，如果你遭遇额外的疲软，在期权布局方面你面对的是一个特定的情形。再说一次，我认为这里存在一个机会，一个更大的机会，因为这一向下跳空缺口会在市场意识到可能进一步下跌之前就被回补。
Again, a specific risk. Therefore, if you experience additional weakness, you have a specific situation regarding setting up options. Again, I think there is an opportunity here, a higher opportunity, given the fact that this downward gap will close before the market realizes the possibility of further decline.
但与此同时，我仍然看到中期内、在未来 49 或 50 天内，存在回补缺口并回升至 35 至 37 区间的可能性。
But at the same time, I still see the possibility in the medium term, over the next 49 or 50 days, to close the gap and return to the 35 to 37 range.
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。