将NKE评级从买入下调至中性；FY2027指引意味着在复苏前将经历3个以上季度的下滑，因此当前估值尚不足以支撑买入。
逐段跳播
Nike 又交出了一个令人失望的季度业绩。销售额下降了 4%，管理层预计今年余下时间情况还会进一步恶化。我最近将 Nike 股票的评级上调至“买入”，并且我告诉过你，我担心的是自己可能行动得过于仓促。
Nike recorded another quarter of disappointing results. Sales have fallen by 4% and management expects things to get worse for the rest of the year. I recently upgraded my rating on Nike stock to "buy," and I told you that my concern was that I might have acted too hastily.
多年来我一直告诫投资者不要买入 Nike 股票，而该股一路暴跌至每股约 36 美元，我正是在这个价位将评级上调至“买入”。
For years I warned investors against buying Nike stock, and the stock crashed to around $36 a share, which is the price at which I upgraded the stock to a " buy".
所以，我想更仔细地看看这份业绩，以判断我是否真的操之过急，以及是否应该再次下调该股评级、将其从我的买入名单中剔除，因为这个季度实在太令人失望了。
So, I want to take a closer look at these results to decide if I really rushed things, and whether I should downgrade the stock again and remove it from my buy list because this quarter has been so disappointing .
Nike 的管理团队表示，他们仍专注于提升产品组合的健康度、改善整个公司的生产效率，并有纪律地配置资源，以支撑长期股东价值。
Nike's management team says they remain focused on enhancing the health of their product portfolio, improving productivity across the company , and allocating resources disciplinedly to support long-term shareholder value.
这一战略是一以贯之的：重建被上一届管理团队破坏的与批发商的关系；降低对主流产品的依赖，比如“Jordan”，这些产品曾经很受欢迎，并且仍在以不同配色反复推出；通过投资新产品和创新来扩大所售产品的组合，以重新点燃消费者的热情。
The strategy was consistent: rebuilding relationships with wholesalers that had been destroyed by the previous management team; And reducing reliance on mainstream products, such as "Jordan," which were popular and continue to be released repeatedly in different colors; Expanding the portfolio of products they sell by investing in new products and innovation in order to reignite customer enthusiasm.
因此，第一季度销售额下降 4%，至 112 亿。毛利率小幅上升至 42.8%。部分原因是本季度的关税壁垒相比去年同期略有降低。
Therefore, first quarter sales fell by 4% to 11.2 billion. The gross profit margin rose slightly to 42.8%. Part of the reason is that the tariff barrier was slightly lower in this quarter compared to the same quarter last year.
而其他定义则被允许保留。特朗普政府曾试图恢复各类关税，但这些关税对 Nike 以及许多向美国消费者销售产品的其他零售商来说都是灾难性的，因为几乎没有人是在美国本土制造的，所以他们要把这些产品推向市场就得支付更高的价格，这严重损害了他们的利润。
While other definitions were allowed to remain. The Trump administration tried to reinstate various types of tariffs, but the tariffs were disastrous for Nike and many other retailers who sell products to consumers in the United States, because virtually no one manufactures in the United States , so they pay higher prices to bring these products to market, and this hurts their profits significantly.
Nike 品牌的批发收入是我密切关注的一项，因为正如我提到的，这是一个重点领域，管理团队希望重建与批发商的关系。
Wholesale revenue for the Nike brand is something I'm watching closely because, as I mentioned, this is an area of focus, as the management team wants to rebuild relationships with wholesalers.
销售额同比下降 1%。但如果剔除中国，这一板块在北美是增长的。所以在一个艰难而充满挑战的季度里，这算是一个略显积极的信号。
Sales decreased by 1% year-on-year. But if you exclude China, there has been growth in North America in this sector. So this is a somewhat positive sign amidst a difficult and challenging quarter.
Nike 的直接收入同比下降 8%。更糟的是，Nike 实际上花了更多钱、并且还在继续花更多钱在广告、促销以及它所谓的需求创造费用上，这些费用较去年同期上升了 5%，反映出品牌营销成本上升。
因此，他们在营销、广告及类似推广活动上花了更多钱，但这并未带来公司所期望的收入加速。
Nike's direct revenue fell by 8% year-on-year. Even worse, Nike actually spent more money, and continues to spend more, on advertising, promotion, and what it calls demand creation expenses, which rose 5% compared to the same period last year, reflecting higher brand marketing costs .
Therefore, they spent more on marketing, advertising, and similar promotional activities , but this did not lead to the revenue acceleration that the company had hoped for.
我很清楚，没有任何关于股票回购的公告。在股东回报方面，公司只是表示派发了 6.1 亿的股息，没有任何股票回购。
It was very clear to me that there was no announcement about a share buyback. Regarding shareholder returns, the company simply stated that it paid out 610 million in dividends, without any share buybacks.
通常，当一家公司股价大幅下跌、而管理层大谈他们对复苏战略的信心时，我希望看到的是：如果你对复苏战略有信心，并且觉得自己的股票被低估了，你就应该回购一部分股票。本应在这些低价位回购股票。我在这里没有看到任何这类动作。这确实令人失望。
Typically, what I like to see when a company's stock price drops significantly and management talks about their confidence in the recovery strategy is that if you are confident in the recovery strategy and feel that your shares are undervalued, you should buy back some of the shares.
It is supposed to buy back the shares at these low prices. I didn't see any of that here. That was certainly disappointing.
因此，他们正在重组业务，并预计这些供应链现代化努力将有助于提升公司的利润。他们正在做的是在印度建立一个新园区以增强其机构能力，将自身重组为三个地理区域，并精简组织结构以进一步削减成本。
Therefore, they are restructuring the business and expect that these supply chain modernization efforts will contribute to increased bottom line for the company . What they are doing is creating a new campus in India to enhance their institutional capabilities, reorganizing themselves into three geographic regions , and streamlining the organizational structure to further reduce costs.
换句话说，Nike 过去生产许多产品的那些国家面临更高的关税，而他们想转移到关税更低的其他国家。这里没有任何迹象表明 Nike 会把制造迁回美国，而这正是现任政府希望看到的。
In other words, the countries where Nike used to manufacture many of its products face higher tariffs, and they want to move to other countries where the tariffs are lower. There is no indication here that Nike will move manufacturing to the United States, which is something the current administration would like to see.
但相反，许多公司所做的只是把制造迁出中国、迁出关税较高的国家，转移到关税较低的国家，对吧？因为当这些公司计算生产成本、并把关税加上美国境外的生产成本一起考虑时，这仍然远低于把整个生产迁到美国。
而且，至少可以说，现任政府在海关政策上一直反复无常。你知道，今天税率是 50%，明天 25%，然后 100%，第二天又完全取消，再一天某些公司获得豁免、另一些公司没有豁免。因此，在这种不断变化的环境中，公司不太可能说：“好吧，让我们把制造迁回美国，因为关税太高了，而且会一直这么高，情况不会变，我们能看清未来会怎样，所以我们可以坚持这个决定。”
公司目前其实做不到这一点。他们只是在现任政府执政期间，尽可能以任何方式改善自身处境，并且很可能会在新政府上台后再做长期决策。
But instead, what many companies are doing is simply moving manufacturing out of China and out of countries with higher tariffs, and moving it to countries with lower tariffs, right?
Because when these companies calculate the cost of production and consider the tariff plus the cost of production outside the United States, it is still much less than moving the entire production to the United States .
Moreover, the current administration has been , to say the least , inconsistent with regard to its customs policies. You know, one day the rate is 50%, the next day 25%, then 100% , the next day it's completely cancelled, and the next day there's an exemption for some companies, and no exemption for other companies.
Therefore, in this kind of changing environment, companies are unlikely to say : "Okay, let's move manufacturing back to the United States because tariffs are too high, and they're going to stay that way, and things aren't going to change, and we can see how things will look, so we can stick to that decision ."
Companies can't really do that at the moment. They are simply trying to improve their situation in any way possible as long as the current administration is in power, and are likely to make long- term decisions when a new administration comes to power.
所以，真正令人失望的是 2027 年余下时间的展望。预计 2027 财年收入将下降高个位数百分比。他们以 4% 的降幅开局。因此，要让全年收入下降高个位数百分比，也就是 7%、8% 或 9%，第二、第三和第四季度的销售将比第一季度糟糕得多。
这极其令人失望，也远比我此前对 Nike 2027 财年的预期要差。
So, what was really disappointing was the outlook for the rest of 2027. Revenue is expected to decline by high single-digit percentages for fiscal year 2027. They started the year with a 4% decline.
Therefore, for revenues to decline for the entire year by high single-digit percentages, i.e., 7, 8 or 9%, the second, third and fourth quarters will be much worse than the first quarter in terms of sales.
This was extremely disappointing, and far worse than I expected from Nike for its fiscal year 2027.
Nike 股票目前的远期市盈率为 16.3。这是很长一段时间以来 Nike 股票最便宜的售价。这在一定程度上解释了为什么我过早地将 Nike 股票上调为买入机会、给予“买入”评级，因为我看到估值跌至历史低位，并觉得 Nike 可能再过一两个季度就会迎来转折点和销售复苏。
但根据我从当前业绩和 2027 年预测中看到的情况，Nike 距离在一两个季度内复苏还非常遥远。看起来在情况开始好转之前，至少还有三个季度的困难和恶化，而对于一家我将其公允价值设定为 29 美元的公司来说，这是漫长的等待。
当前市价略高于 30 美元。因此，与其估计的公允价值相比，它并不算很便宜。
Nike's stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3. It's the cheapest selling price for Nike stock in a very long time. This is partly why I was early in upgrading Nike stock to a buy opportunity, rating it as a buy, because I saw the valuation reach record lows, and I felt that Nike was probably a quarter or two away from reaching a turning point and sales recovery.
But, based on what I see from the current results and the 2027 forecast, Nike is still very far from recovering in a quarter or two. It looks like there are at least three more quarters of difficulties and worsening conditions before things start to improve, and that's a long time to wait for a company whose fair value , you know, I set at $29.
The current market price is slightly above $30. Therefore, it is not very cheap when compared to its estimated fair value.
因此，我将更新对Nike股票的评级。几周前我上调其评级时似乎过于仓促。因此，我将再次把其评级下调至“持有”。我认为最好至少再等一两个季度，直到Nike向投资者表明，我们至少能看到情况何时会好转、何时会停止回落、业务何时会企稳，然后再做评估，并对入场投资感到放心。
因此，我认为这不是一个买入机会。我再次将Nike的股票评级下调至持有水平。
Therefore, I will update my rating for Nike stock. It seems I was too hasty in promoting him a few weeks ago when I did that. Therefore, I will lower its rating again to "retain".
I think it's best to wait at least another quarter or two until Nike shows investors that we can at least see when things will turn around, when they will stop falling back, and when the business will stabilize, and then we can make an assessment and feel comfortable about getting into the investment.
Therefore, I don't think this is a buying opportunity. I am downgrading Nike's stock rating again to the hold level.
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。