Nike 是一家拥有强大品牌的优秀公司；当前 33 美元的价格相对于潜在 85 美元估值被低估；随着管理层纠正方向，预计将强劲复苏。
逐段跳播
第六支箭，Nike，那个“Swoosh”标志，以及“Just Do It”口号。作为地球上辨识度最高的品牌之一，这个品牌代表着一种无法在一夜之间被模仿的竞争优势。
Arrow number six, Nike, the "Swoosh" logo, and the "Just Do It" slogan. One of the most recognizable brands on Earth, this brand represents a competitive advantage that cannot be imitated overnight.
然而，最近的情况一直很艰难。10 年或 20 年后 Nike 还会存在吗？10 年或 20 年后它会比现在更大吗？对大多数人来说，答案是肯定的。
However, things have been difficult recently. Will Nike still exist 10 or 20 years from now? Will it be bigger than it is now in 10 or 20 years? For most people, the answer is yes.
每股 33 美元。回到 2021 年初，或者不管那是哪时候。对，2021 年底，该股达到了每股 180 美元。
$33 per share. Going back to early 2021 or whenever that was. Yes, in late 2021, the stock reached $180 per share.
你可以以比 CEO 和 Tim Cook 买入时更低的价格买入 Nike 股票。Tim Cook 是他们董事会的成员。两人都在 4 月以大约每股 42 美元的价格买入了价值 100 万美元的股票。
You can buy Nike stock for a cheaper price than what the CEO and Tim Cook bought it for. Tim Cook is a member of their board of directors. Both of them bought $1 million worth of shares in April at a price of approximately $42 per share.
现在，该股今年下跌了 40%，业务进展不顺。他们在营收方面持续令人失望，而营收正在下滑。然而，两个季度前曾出现过一线很大的希望，当时他们的批发销售额增长了 14%。
Now, the stock is down 40% this year, and business is not going well. They continue to disappoint regarding their revenues, and revenues are declining. However, there was a great glimmer of hope two quarters ago when they achieved a 14% increase in wholesale sales.
造成他们问题的是，他们离开了“Dick's Sporting Goods”和“Foot Locker”门店，开始更多地直接销售，这就是他们问题的原因。他们现在正在回归那些创立了公司的零售门店。
What caused their problem was that they left the "Dick's Sporting Goods" and "Foot Locker" stores and started selling directly more, and that was the reason for their problem. They are now returning to the retail stores that founded the company.
另一个问题是，中国市场的销售额在上个季度下降了 12%。各位，这是一家市值 500 亿美元、企业价值 640 亿美元的公司。
Another problem is that sales in China fell by 12% in the last quarter. Guys, it's a company with a market capitalization of $50 billion and an enterprise value of $64 billion.
他们五年的平均自由现金流是 43 亿。在明显放弃自由现金流、清理库存并改变方向的情况下，他们的年度现金流是 2.2。
Their average free cash flow over five years is 4.3 billion. Their annual cash flow is 2.2 in a situation where they are clearly giving up free cash flow, getting rid of inventory, and changing course.
如果他们能回到五年平均水平，其交易价格将是自由现金流的 11 倍。资本回报，过去五年每年 17%，去年为 12%。
If they can return to the five-year average, it will be trading at 11 times free cash flow. Capital returns, 17% annually for the past five years, and 12% for the last year.
现在，现金流低，净利润低，其他一切都还好。我希望他们回购更多股票；他们正在支付一笔愚蠢的 24 亿美元股息。我猜这很快就会停止。
Now, cash flow is low, net income is low, and everything else is fine. I wish they would buy back more shares; they're paying out a stupid 2.4 billion in dividends. My guess is that it will stop very soon.
谁知道呢？他们可能会说：“听着，如果我们取消这个，人们会对我们不满。”不过，它支付的股息率为 4.7%。这会是……我就是不理解那些股息分配。我认为他们应该完全停止派发股息，转而回购股票并投资于公司。
Who knows? They might say, "Listen, if we get rid of that, people will be angry with us." However, it pays a dividend yield of 4.7%. This would be... I simply don't understand those dividend distributions.
I think they should stop distributing dividends altogether and repurchase shares and invest in the company.
分析师预测 2030 年盈利为 1.73 至 4.25 美元。假设他们是对的，我为此分配 20 倍的市盈率。这是一家估值 85 美元的公司，目前正以每股 33 美元的价格出售。
Analysts predict earnings of $1.73 to $4.25 in 2030. Let's assume they are right and I allocate a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 to this. This is a company valued at $85 that is currently being sold for $33 per share.
接下来，营收。他们今年出现下滑。分析师预计他们会恢复增长，不是巨大的增长，但他们会在未来四年恢复增长。三年，抱歉。
Next, revenues. They have a decline this year. Analysts expect them to return to growth, not a huge growth, but they will return to growth over the next four years. Three years, sorry.
我采用未来十年的营收增长率为3%、5%和7%，利润率采用9%、10%和11%，市盈率采用18倍、22倍和26倍。
I am using revenue growth of 3, 5 and 7 percent for the next ten years. I use profit margins of 9, 10 and 11 percent. I use price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 22, and 26 times.
各位，我仍然认为这是一家出色的公司，它五年和十年的资本回报率都很高。各位，是的，人们最近可能已经不再青睐Nike，但如果他们重新回到赛场上，我看着它就会说：如果你现在随机问世界上100个人，什么是最好的鞋类或运动服饰品牌？我仍然认为会有很大一部分人说是Nike。
Guys, I still think this is an outstanding company. It has high returns on capital for five and ten years. And guys, yes, people may have moved away from Nike recently, but if they get back in the game, I look at it and say: if you asked 100 people in the world right now at random, what would be the number one brand of footwear or sportswear?
I still think you'll get a large portion of people saying Nike.
Nike说“听着，我们几年前犯了一个错误，我们要纠正它”，这是在做正确的事。确实存在问题，但这是那种我希望在他们改变方向后能强势回归的公司。最后，投资回报率为9.5%。
Nike is doing the right thing when it says, "Listen, we made a mistake a few years ago. We're going to fix this." There are problems, but it's the kind of company I hope will make a strong comeback when they change course. Finally, a return on investment of 9.5 percent.
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。