应避免买入 NKE，因其经营严重下滑（营收与盈利下降），叠加估值偏高且缺乏吸引力。
逐段跳播
首先是Nike。我研究过这只股票，每次我都决定不买它。部分原因是我认为它正走向一个非常困难的局面。它是一家类似Disney的公司，拥有优秀的资产和出色的品牌，但它没有最优地利用这些来创造利润。
First, there's Nike. I've reviewed this stock, and each time I decide against buying it. This is partly because I believe it's heading into a very difficult situation. It's a company similar to Disney, with excellent assets and a great brand, but it's not leveraging them optimally to generate profit.
看看Nike，其股价在过去十年里下跌了36%——十年的负回报。如今Nike最糟糕的地方在于，通常当你买入一只处于复苏模式的股票时，你买的是一只价格每天都在下跌的股票，因为股价在下跌而盈利在增长。
但在Nike的情况下，股价实际上在下跌，而公司的估值却仍然相对较高，因为盈利和营收也在下滑。
Looking at Nike, the stock price has fallen by 36% over the past ten years—a decade of negative returns. The worst thing about Nike today is that, normally, when you buy a stock in recovery mode, you're buying a stock whose price decreases daily because the stock price is falling while earnings are growing.
But in Nike's case, the stock price is actually decreasing, while the company's valuation remains relatively high because earnings and revenue are also declining.
例如，如果我们看营收，情况就是这样。这些不是假数字；这是现实。营收已从510亿美元下降到450亿美元。Nike正处于严重的低迷之中。而随着营收下降，净利润也在下降。没错。它有时会上升，但总体而言，在过去五年里，净利润一直在下滑，这意味着每股收益更低。
For example, if we look at revenue, this is what it looks like. These aren't fake numbers; this is reality. Revenue has dropped from $51 billion to $45 billion. Nike is in a severe downturn.
And as revenue falls, so does net income . True. It has risen at times, but overall, over the past five years, net income has declined, which translates to lower earnings per share.
我很难买入像Nike这样处于真正危机中的股票。该公司在有能力竞争对手面前失去了大量市场份额。Nike品牌和Air Jordan鞋的价值正在消退。新一代人群不像老一代那样熟悉Jordan品牌。
Jordan在年轻一代心目中的地位已不再相同，年轻消费者更倾向于尝试不同类型的鞋类。所以，Nike处于一个非常困难的境地。每股收益在下滑，而股价却仍然很高，相对于S&P Global、Netflix或Uber等替代选择存在溢价。
因此，就我而言，我更偏好估值更低且增长稳定的公司。
It's difficult for me to buy a stock like Nike, which is in a real crisis. The company has lost significant market share to competent competitors. The value of the Nike brand and Air Jordan shoes is fading.
A new demographic isn't as familiar with the Jordan brand as the older generation was. Jordan no longer holds the same place in the minds of younger generations, and younger shoppers are more inclined to try different types of footwear.
So, Nike is in a very difficult position . Earnings per share are declining, yet the stock price remains high , trading at a premium to alternatives like S&P Global, Netflix, or Uber.
Therefore, in my case, I prefer a company with a lower valuation and consistent growth.
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。