Nike 上季度销售额下滑 4%，管理层预计 2027 财年将出现高个位数下滑。Jordan 销售额下滑 14%–16%，大中华区同比下滑 26%，数字渠道清理短期内将拖累中国业务。我对扭亏战略没有信心，也看不到明确的转折点；这些挑战可能阻碍业绩改善。
逐段跳播
我认为，现在所有人都在谈论Nike股票的最大原因，就是销售额大幅下滑。上个季度销售额下降了4%，但管理层预计本财年情况还会进一步恶化。
I think the biggest reason everyone is talking about Nike stock right now is the huge drop in sales. In the last quarter, sales fell by 4%, but management expects conditions to worsen during this fiscal year.
总体而言，他们预计2027财年销售额将下降高个位数百分比。这家公司2010年至2019年间的销售额曾以高个位数速度增长，也就是说，那十年间的复合年增长率在7%到9%之间。而现在，这家公司正在走下坡路。
Overall, they expect sales to decline by a high single-digit percentage during fiscal year 2027 . This is a company whose sales grew at high single-digit rates between 2010 and 2019, i.e., with a compound annual growth rate of between 7% and 9% during that decade. Now, this company is in decline.
这对许多Nike股东和投资者来说是一个冲击，他们正在讨论这次下滑的原因。第一季度，Jordan品牌——它无疑是Nike旗下最知名的品牌——占其全球业务的13%，但其收入以平均两位数的百分比下滑。也就是说，按年计算下降了14%到16%。
This is a shock to many Nike shareholders and investors who are discussing the reasons for this decline. In the first quarter, the Jordan brand, which is undoubtedly the most well-known brand in Nike's portfolio, represented 13% of its global business, but its revenues declined by average double-digit percentages.
That is, a decrease of between 14% and 16% on an annual basis.
部分原因是消费者行为，部分原因是竞争，但还有一部分是Nike自己造成的损害——它减少了Jordan产品的供应量，尤其是最受欢迎的鞋款。他们试图制造这种产品的稀缺性，但我不知道这是否真的是正确的策略。然而，他们现在正面临同比超过10%的销售下滑。
Part of it is due to consumer behavior, part to competition, but part of it is damage that Nike has caused to itself by reducing the quantities of Jordan products available, especially the most popular shoes.
They are trying to create a scarcity of this product, but I don't know if this is really the right strategy . However, they are now facing a sales decline of more than ten percent year-on-year .
Nike面临重大阻力的另一个领域是其大中华区业务。上个季度，大中华区销售额同比下降了26%。他们在过去六个月里任命了新的领导团队，并正在讨论他们计划改善该地区销售的一些方式。他们表示，将终止通过不符合其市场定价策略的渠道进行分销，这将减少其品牌的大幅折扣。
Another area where Nike faces significant headwinds is its operations in Greater China. During the last quarter, sales in Greater China fell by 26% year-on-year. They have appointed a new leadership team over the past six months, and are discussing some of the ways they plan to improve their sales in that region.
They said they are ending distribution through channels that do not align with their market pricing strategy, which will reduce the large discounts on their brands.
换句话说，Nike表示将终止与那些对其产品提供大幅折扣的合作伙伴的关系。
In other words, Nike says it is ending its relationships with partners who offer significant discounts on its products.
因此，Nike认为，为其旗舰产品建立更严格的数字化体系，将让品牌以更具辨识度的方式呈现。他们表示，短期内中国的收入和盈利能力将受到影响。他们预计数字化清理过程将需要几个季度，同时他们会继续与合作伙伴采取有针对性的行动来改善库存水平。
Therefore, Nike believes that having a more rigorous digital system for its flagship products will allow the brand to be presented in a more distinctive way. In the short term, they say revenues and profitability in China will be affected.
They expect the digital cleanup process to take several seasons while they continue to take targeted actions with their partners to improve inventory levels.
天哪，从投资者的角度看，这可不妙。这个领域已经出现了同比26%的大幅销售下滑，而管理层采取的行动预计在几个季度内都不会改善局面。
Oh my God, this doesn't look good from an investor's point of view. This is an area that is already experiencing a significant drop in sales of 26% year-on-year , and the actions taken by management are not expected to improve the situation for several seasons.
所以，Nike正在努力改善这些挫折，但尽管管理层竭力表示自己对改善业务的策略充满信心，我并不这么看。我对这个策略没有信心。我认为没有足够的证据表明这是未来正确的策略。
So, Nike is working to improve these setbacks, but as much as management tries to say that it is confident in its strategy for improving the business, I do n't see it that way.
I am not confident in this strategy. I don't think there is enough evidence to suggest that this is the right strategy going forward.
这只股票持续不断地下跌，而管理层却一再回到投资者面前，告诉他们这次转型需要时间。它需要更长的时间。
The stock continues to fall further and further while management keeps returning to investors and telling them that this turnaround will take time. It will take longer.
但现在已经过去很久了。现在已经过去很久了，Nike的业务不断遭受挫折，却没有任何明确的转折点能推动业务向好。他们承认这一点，说这些挑战非常重大，这让我印象深刻。我认为确实如此。
我认为他们的挑战如此之大，以至于他们可能无法让情况好转。
But it's been a long time now. It has been a long time now and Nike is suffering from setbacks in its business without any clear turning point that will push the business towards the better.
I was impressed by their acknowledgment of that, saying that these challenges are significant. And I think it is indeed . I think their challenges are so great that they may not be able to change things for the better.
这种局面正在演变成一种信心越来越不足的状态——人们越来越不相信他们最终能找到解决办法，不是吗？在这项转型策略的早期，我当时想，Nike：一个强大的品牌，几十年的客户忠诚度，几十年在分销渠道、分销网络和批发合作伙伴方面的经验，以及与NBA、NFL、MLB、足球等体育联盟的牢固关系，还有与各项运动中最著名运动员的关系。
我以为他们能够利用这些，全力回馈给客户，但他们就是没能想明白该怎么做。
This situation is turning into a state where there is less confidence that they will eventually find a solution , isn't it? Earlier in this transformation strategy, I thought, you know, Nike: a strong brand, decades of customer loyalty, decades of experience in distribution channels, distribution networks and wholesale partners, and strong relationships with sports franchises such as the NBA, NFL, MLB, football and others, with relationships with the most famous athletes in each sport.
I thought they would be able to exploit that and return it in full force to the client, but they simply couldn't figure out how to do it.
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 8 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。