预计未来一到两个月内，NOC 将继续下跌，向 500 靠拢，甚至可能跌至 480；而更长期来看，楔形形态对价格构成压力，但预计会向上突破。他目前没有买入看跌期权：明天将公布财报，且看跌/看涨比率为 1.16，均无法确认这轮下跌。
逐段跳播
所以，我持有 Northrop Grumman 的仓位。这家国防巨头，以及 Lockheed 和 General Dynamics 等同类股票，都出现了大量资金涌入，而周五市场却遭遇了大规模抛售，与此同时这些股票却在上涨。
So, I have a position on Northrop Grumman, the defense giant that saw a huge influx of money into its stock and others like Lockheed and General Dynamics, while the market saw a massive sell-off on Friday as these names rose.
而今天，这些同样的股票又回到了市场上。所以，根据我的技术分析，我会看看能否找到一个机会，买入这些国防股的“看跌”期权，看看能否找到交易机会。
Now, today, those same names are back on the market again . So, based on my technical analysis, I will see if we can find a setup to buy a "put" option on these defense stocks and see if we can find a trading opportunity.
我认为 Northrop Grumman 可能会继续下跌，向 500 靠拢，甚至可能跌到 480 附近的更低水平。
I believe Northrop Grumman may continue to decline towards 500, if not to a lower level around 480 .
从长期来看，如果我们考虑对 NOC 股票做长期买入期权（LEAP），我会关注这个楔形形态，因为它持续对价格形成下行压力，并且预计会向上突破。
In the long term, if we were considering a long-term buy option (LEAP) on NOC stock, I would be watching this wedge as it continues to put downward pressure on the price, and is expected to break upwards.
但我寻找的是短期交易。可以吧？这完全取决于时间框架和你看待它的角度。短期来看，考虑一到两个月的周期，我在考虑买入一份看跌期权，我的第一个目标是行权价 500。如果真如预期，这大约给我们留出了 NOC 股票继续下跌 12 美元的空间。
But what I'm looking for is short-term trading. Good? It's all about timeframes and the perspective you're looking at it from . In the short term, thinking about a period of one to two months, I am thinking of buying a put option where my first target would be a strike price of 500.
This gives us about $12 of room for NOC stock to continue to fall if that happens.
看 NOC 的时候，记得看左上角，因为这就是 Northrop Grumman，也就是我们今天要看的标的。
make sure to go up to the top left as we look at NOC because it is Northrop Grumman, which is the deal we are looking at today.
所以，目前 NOC 盘中报 512。
So, at the moment, NOC is trading intraday at 512.
像 NOC 这样的防御型股票，成交量往往偏低。
defensive stocks like NOC tend to get lower trading volume .
NOC 明天也将公布财报。抱歉，我想到的是隐含波动率暴跌（IV crush）。对，没错，正是如此。如果我们现在就想买入一份“看跌”期权，而利润明天就要公布，那就只能这样了。目前我们处在 89 百分位。
所以，要想拿到 500 的执行价，我们得额外付出成本，更别说 505 之类的了。成交量并不能印证我们的判断。
NOC will also announce its earnings tomorrow. Sorry, I'm thinking of that crash in implied volatility (IV crush). Yes, this is correct. exactly. If we want to enter to buy a "put" option now and the profits will be announced tomorrow, then that's all .
Currently we are at the 89 percentile. So, we will have to pay extra to get an execution price of 500, let alone 505 and the like. The trading volume does not confirm our conviction.
是的，这种情况意味着我们得避免在财报公布前就进场买入“看跌”期权。我们的论点与整体情况并不太吻合。我们会忽略这一点，因为我们是聪明的交易者，会明智地管理自己的资金。因为“看跌”期权对“看涨”期权的成交量比是 1.16。资金并没有向我们确认任何东西。
Yes, this situation means that we will have to refrain from entering into the "bot" option just before the earnings announcement. Our thesis doesn't really fit with the series as a whole.
Well, we will ignore this because we are smart traders and we handle our money intelligently. Because the trading volume of the "bot" to the "call" is at 1.16. Money doesn't confirm anything for us.
财报明天就要公布，这意味着隐含波动率暴跌（IV crush）会产生重大影响。所以，那是另一回事，隐含波动率的削减幅度在 86，这意味着期权权利金极其昂贵。这再次与我们的意图相矛盾。
执行价是 500，“看跌”期权的 delta 是 0.38，低于我们通常偏好的区间，也就是 0.4 到 0.6 之间。这里没有任何优势。因此，我们会忽略这个机会。
Earnings reports are due tomorrow, which means that the implied volatility crash (IV crush) will have a significant impact. So, that's another matter, and the percentage cut for implied volatility is at 86, which means the premium is extremely expensive.
Again, this contradicts what we want to do. The execution price is 500, the "bot" option is at a delta of 0.38, which is lower than the range we usually prefer to be in , which is between 0.4 and 0.6.
There are no advantages here. Therefore, we will ignore this opportunity.
有人可能会问我们：“Jake、Tabby，基于你们的论点，什么情况会让你们改变主意去尝试？”我们能做的是：如果隐含波动率处于中间区间，至少在 50% 到 60% 之间，并且距离财报公布还有几天时间，让我们的论点得到验证。
或者，如果看跌期权对看涨期权的成交量比印证了这只股票的下跌趋势，那么如果该比率在 2.0 到 3.0 之间，那将是一个强烈的看跌信号，我们就可以押注一波好的趋势。
Some might ask us: "Jake, Tabby, what would change your minds about trying this based on your thesis?" Well, what we can do is if the implied volatility is in the middle range at least between 50 and 60% and we have a few days before the earnings announcement for our thesis to be validated.
Or if the volume of the put to call trades confirms the downward trend of this stock, then if the ratio was between 2.0 and 3.0, it would be a strong bearish reading and we could bet on a good trend.