ServiceNow 基本面正在改善，业务增长预计将持续至 2027 年；若近期价格反转得以延续，则看涨逻辑成立。
逐段跳播
但我们来谈谈“Service Now”。你在今天排名前三的公司中还有另一个软件板块的名字。你在“Service Now”中看到了什么，Dan？那里还有另一个特征，Marley，但今天它基本上是一个“NNN”特征，不是吗？
是的，“ServiceNow”无疑是你指出的软件板块中的另一个名字，我认为它也在重新找回平衡。而且，从长期来看，我认为这是一种你将继续看到其业务线持续增长到2027年的情况。所以，我认为如果我们看到这种反转继续，这里有机会获取更多收益。
But let's talk about "Service Now". You have another name in the software sector among the top three companies today. What do you see in "Service Now", Dan? There's another feature there too, Marley, but it's pretty much an "NNN" feature today, isn't it?
Yes , "ServiceNow" is definitely another name in software as you pointed out, and I think it's regaining its balance as well. And again, in the long run, this is a situation where I think you will continue to see their business line continue to grow until 2027.
So, I think there is an opportunity here to capture more gains if we see this reversal continue.
好。那么，Rick，这里是一张完全不同的图，我们看到ServiceNow在过去一年的大部分时间里、尤其是最近，承受的压力要大得多。那么，带我们看看你在技术分析中看到了什么。是的，自7月22日我们的财报事件以来，我们看到了不错的上涨。
但需要明确的是，该股较其接近193的年内高点下跌了约30%。所以，我们最近在这里走高，但那个趋势已经破裂。我们的蓝色趋势线已被跌破。现在，主导形态是“下降楔形”形态，其边界线指向下方但彼此收敛。
而且，看似不合逻辑的是，这通常被视为一个更乐观的形态。但你真正要寻找的是突破这两条线中的任何一条，以突破一个重要的技术区域，这可能——取决于你预期的方向——导致价格飙升，出现这种猛烈上涨。
因此，我们可以注意到，142和150的旧峰值也代表了上升趋势中的一个突出区域。一个缺口被填补，随后在142附近成为反复出现的底部，或者抱歉，135也很突出。还有126水平，这是另一个必须考虑的缺口水平。
现在，移动均线再次给我们呈现了完全不同的图景，但我们在约134-135水平处有5日和21日移动均线的交汇点。我们橙色的251日长期指数移动均线，代表一年，位于约130，与我们的下边界线一致，并再次作为一个支撑区域凸显出来。
相对强弱指数（RSI）在这里略高于50中位线。下降趋势线仍然存在，但我们似乎守住了移动均线的这一支撑汇合处。因此，观察买家是否能够确立主导地位，有说服力地突破下降趋势线，并创出新的相对高点。
现在，成交量分布向我们显示，大部分密集的交易活动都在这里低得多的水平。最重要的区域接近我们当前的水平。在这里，约123至126之间作为一个重要区域凸显出来。还有另一个区域在135附近。
以及这里一些孤立的区域，从152到157，以及约160到165。好。现在我们处于“Service Now”的135.45。
Good. So, a completely different graph here, Rick, where we're looking at ServiceNow under much more pressure for most of the past year and especially recently . So, take us through what you see in the technical analysis.
Yes, we have seen a good rise since our earnings event on July 22. But, to be clear, the stock is down about 30% from its yearly highs near 193. So, we recently headed higher here , but that trend has broken.
Our blue trend line has been broken . Now, the dominant shape is the " falling wedge" pattern, where the boundary lines point downwards but converge towards each other. And, seemingly illogically, this is often seen as a more optimistic pattern.
But what you're really looking for is a breakout beyond either of these lines to break a significant technical zone, which could —depending on your expected direction—lead to a price surge where you see this kind of wild rally.
Therefore, we can note that the old peak at 142 and 150 also represents a prominent area in the upward trend. A gap was filled and then became a recurring floor around 142, or sorry, 135 also protrudes.
There is also the 126 level, which is another gap level that must be taken into account. Now, the moving averages are giving us a completely different picture once again, but we have a point of convergence between the 5- and 21- day moving averages at approximately the 134-135 level.
Our 251-day long-term exponential moving average in orange, which represents one year, is at approximately 130, which is in line with our lower boundary line and stands out as a support area once again.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI ) is slightly above the 50 midline here. The downtrend line is still in place, but we seem to be holding on to this confluence of support for our moving averages.
Therefore, watch to see if buyers are able to assert their dominance, break through the downtrend line with conviction, and achieve new relative highs. Now, the trading volume profile shows us that most of the intense trading activity was at much lower levels here.
The most important areas are close to our current level. Here, between about 123 and 126 stands out as an important area. There is another area around 135. And some isolated pockets here, from 152 to 157 and about 160 to 165.
Okay. And now we are at 135.45 for "Service Now".
那么，Dan，你对ServiceNow提出的交易是什么？是的，自从我不久前看过这张图以来，价格已经下跌了一点，不过，思路正如Rick所指出的，我也看到130处的支撑。因此，今天的交易示例是“风险反转”。
再次，这是在11月，大约50天后，它涉及卖出130看涨期权并买入150看跌期权。那在138.5时成本大致相同。现在，它或许可以以净收入的方式执行。这将盈亏平衡点降至130以下。
但对我来说，我认为如果我们未来一个月左右看到一些疲软，并且价格收于130以下，那买入该股并不是一个糟糕的水平。如果有进一步上行，并且我们看到这种反转继续，这个交易示例应该能让我们加以利用。
So, Dan, what 's your proposed deal for ServiceNow? Yes, the price has dropped a little since I looked at this chart a little while ago, however, the idea is as Rick pointed out , I see support at 130 as well.
Therefore, today's trade example is " risk reversal". Again, this is in November, about 50 days later, and it involves selling a call option at 130 and buying a put option at 150.
That was at roughly the same cost at 138.5. Now, it can perhaps be executed against a credit balance. This lowers the breakeven point to below 130. But for me, I think if we see some weakness over the next month or so and the price closes below 130 , it's not a bad level to buy the stock.
If there is further upside and we see this reversal continue, this trading example should allow us to take advantage of it.
好。ServiceNow的股价今天也上涨了1%，与整个软件板块一致，录得温和涨幅。
Good. Shares of ServiceNow also rose by one percent today, posting modest gains in line with the software sector as a whole.
观察点
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。