$NOW · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-28
NOW 营收超预期（同比增长 21%），并将目标上调 7 亿美元，自由现金流利润率升至 36%，但因 EPS 差 2 美分而下跌两位数；说话者认为财报中没有任何内容能解释这轮抛售，不过市场预期数字更高，且 10% 的毛利润增长为有记录以来最慢。他对是否持有不持立场。
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Service Now 是个大事件。我们也会看看它。
Uh Service Now is a big one. We'll take a look at that as well.
Service Now，我还没有数据。Service Now，我还是没有数据，
Service Now, I don't have the numbers yet. Service Now, still don't have the numbers,
Service Now 正在遭受我们过去几个月里见过的最严重打击之一。他们的每股收益只差了2%，也就是2美分。营收超预期。营收同比增长21%。每股收益同比增长4%。Service Now 盘后下跌14%。我不知道他们说了什么，让市场这么愤怒。
Service Now is taking one of the biggest beatings we've seen in the past few months. They only missed EPS by 2% aka 2 cents. They beat on revenue. Revenue is up 21% year-over-year.
EPS is up 4% year-over-year. Service Now is down 14% after hours. I do not know what they said for the street to be this mad.
Service Now 各位，我没什么能向你们解释它为什么被砸。他们上调了财年指引。Bill McDermott 说，我们的 AI 势头持续增强，AI 净新增 ACV 超出预期，使我们今年第二次上调年终目标，从10亿提高到现在的17亿。
这增加了7亿美元。重要的是，我们正以资本高效的模型抓住这一重大机遇，减少资本开支，并将全年自由现金流利润率提高100个基点至36%。
Service Now guys, I have nothing for you to explain why this is getting hit. They raised their fiscal year guide. Bill McDermott, our AI momentum continues to build with AI net new ACV exceeding expectations, enabling us to raise our year-end target for the second time this year from a billion to now 1.7.
That's a $700 million increase. Importantly, we are capturing the significant opportunity with a capital efficient model, reducing capex, and raising our fullear free cash flow margin by 100 basis points to 36%.
我是说，我不知道市场在恐慌什么，但 Forinet 和 Service Now 都是三超预期。我是说，Service Now 也许，对，Service Now 是双超预期而不是三超预期，因为他们的每股收益差了2%，但还是。
I mean, I don't know what the street's freaking out about, but Forinet and Service Now, both of them with triple beats. I mean, I maybe Service Now, yeah, Service Now double beat instead of a triple beat because they missed by 2% on EPS, but still.
是 CFO 要离职还是怎么的？对，这里面肯定有更深层的原因。我对 Forinet 或 Service Now 没有解释。财报里没有什么明显的问题。
Is the CFO leaving or something? Yeah, there's got to be something deeper here. I don't have a reason for Fordinet or Service Now. There's nothing obvious in the print.
Service Now，我完全不知道。如果聊天里有人知道为什么他们认为 Service Now 和 Forinet 跌了14%和20%，我很想听听。
Service Now, I have no idea. If anyone in the chat knows why they think Service Now and Forinet are down 14 and 20%. I'd love to hear.
对于 Service Now 或 Forinet，我没法给大家一个答案。我真的没有。我会试着从他们的电话会里拿到一些纪要。我想他们的电话会和 Google 同时进行，好找些理由。
I don't have an answer for people on Service Now or um Forinet. I really don't. I'll be trying to get some notes from their call. I think their call is happening at the same time with Google to get some reasoning.
Service Now 跌20%有点疯狂。如果他们三超预期并把指引上调了7亿美元，但尽管如此，市场还是有什么不满意的地方。
service now down 20 is kind of crazy. Uh if you know they triple beat and raise guidance by $700 million, but nonetheless there's something the street's upset about.
是的，Service Now 的每股收益确实差了2美分。对，我不知道20%是否足以证明这一点，但这就是你现在看到的。对，我从 AI 那里看到，或者说我问了 AI，他们说 whisper number 还要更高，Service Now 的每股收益确实没达到预期。
Yes, Service Now did miss by two cents on EPS. Yeah, I don't know if 20% is enough to justify that, but that's what you're seeing here. Yeah, I I saw from uh AI or I asked AI, they said that the whisper number was even higher that they really did miss EPS for for Service Now.
是的，说的是 Service Now。但如果算上今天3%的抛售，我们已经跌了超过20%。这太离谱了。
Yeah, for Service Now. But in and if you include today's 3% selloff, we're down over 20%. That's wild.
那我们来聊聊 Service Now。Tanner，我知道你多少更偏向“软件已死”这一边。我知道你有几只自己很喜欢的软件股，比如 Palanteer，但我不知道这是不是 Service Now 第三季度毛利增长10%的原因。
这是它有记录以来最慢的增速。每股收益大约差了2美分。相对 Vis 的耳语数字稍微高一点，但从9月18日，我是说2018年9月，当时增速是41%，现在只有10%。所以很明显，随着公司成熟，毛利的增速必然会放缓。
但在 AI 的世界里、在软件整体商品化的叙事下，Tanner，你觉得这是压着这只股票的原因吗？还是你觉得这有点像 Google 那样，只是算法太蠢，跌了20%？
So, let's let's talk service now. Tanner, I know you've been a bit more on the side of uh software is dead. I know you have a couple of your software names that you you really like like a Palanteer, but I don't know if this is the reason Service Now reported 10% gross profit growth in Q3.
It's slowest growth rate on record. They missed EPS by about 2 cents. It's a little bit more versus the Vis whisper number, but from September 18th, September 2018 I should say, it was at 41% growth.
It's now at 10. So obviously the rate of growth on their gross profits and as you mature as a company, it has to slow down. But in a world of AI and the whole commoditization narrative of software, do you think that's what's weighing on the stock here, Tanner, or do you think it's kind of like Google of just algos being dumb and 20%
我真的不知道。我对 Service Now 了解不多。我没有投资这家公司。我并不太站在“软件已死”那一边，我只是对这只股票更加不确定。所以，或者说对软件。所以它们对我来说属于“太难”那一类，我就是不愿意投它们。
并不是说我认为它们会归零。至于 Service Now 具体发生了什么，我不知道，也许我会去听听电话会。
I genuinely don't know. I don't know much about Service Now. Um I'm not invested in this company. I'm not really on the camp of uh software as dead as much as I'm just way more uncertain about that name.
So it kind or or software. So, they go into the too hard bucket for me that I'm just not willing to invest in them. Not not not that I think that they're going to zero. Uh, what's happening specifically with Service Now, I don't know, maybe I'll listen to the call.
所以我不知道 Service Now 到底怎么了。我们其实没怎么看它。但没错，我对 SAS 的存续能力并不确定。我认为随着 anthropic 和 open AI 出现，每一个行业都会受到质疑，而最明显会处在焦点上的就是编程方面，因为现在人工智能正在取得重大突破，让生成代码的成本几乎降到零。
软件会很容易地由企业为自己需求生成。但就像我说的，Service Now 可能完全没问题。我不是在就 Service Now 发表什么判断。我没有在跟踪它们。
So um I don't know what's going on with Service Now. We didn't look at it really. Um but yeah, I'm not I'm not certain about the survivability of of SAS. I think as anthropic and open AI come out, I think every single industry will be in question and the the the clearest one that would be in in focus would be the the the coding aspects because that's right now artificial intelligence is finding great breakthroughs and making the cost to generate code practically fall to zero.
And um you know software will be easily generated at at businesses for their own needs. But like I said service now could be perfectly fine. I'm not making a statement about service now. I'm not following them.
ServiceService Now 也不是最便宜的股票。如果突然之间，像 Palanteer 这样的公司，纸面上本身并不便宜，但这家公司的增长速度是我们刚刚展示的那些公司的五倍。
Service um service now is not cheapest name either. And if suddenly this company like Palanteer isn't cheap per se on paper, but this company is growing five times faster than the companies we've just shown.