$NOW · Meet Kevin · 2026-10-29
看空 Service Now：它无法转嫁超大规模云厂商的成本，定价能力为黄/红灯，利润率正在恶化。营收增长 22%，而订阅销货成本增长 46%；此后营收增长约 20.5%，而订阅费用增长 58%。管理层预计专业服务毛利率亏损比例将在今年剩余时间上升；该股已下跌 24%。
逐段跳播
那 Service Now 呢？因为很多人都在说，Kevin，Service Now。你对 Service Now 怎么看？这是不是 AI 最终会摧毁越来越多股市的迹象？如果像 Service Now 这样的公司最终下跌，谁会赢？
它现在跌了多少？跌了 24%。看看这个。直接断崖式下跌。
What about service now? Because a lot of people are saying, Kevin, service now. What's your opinion on service now? Is this the sign that AI is just going to end up destroying more and more of the stock market?
Who's going to win if companies like Service Now are going to end up falling? Uh, you know, what's it down now? It's down 24%. Look at that. Fell off a cliff.
Service Now，7 月 8 日，我满怀期待地想知道 Service Now 能不能加入 Palunteer 和 Salesforce 的行列。我得出了一些关于定价能力的警示信号。
我想看到利润率改善。他们的利润率很糟糕。我们在 6 月看的时候，他们的营收增长了 22%，而他们的订阅成本增长了 46%。
Service Now, July 8th, came in excited to see if Service Now could join Palunteer and Salesforce. I came away with some red flags on pricing power. I want to see margins improve.
Their margins are sucking. Their revenues were up 22% when we looked at this in June. and their subscription costs of goods sold were up 46%.
然后他们公布了财报。在 7 月 23 日，同样是在我们课程会员的直播里，我们说定价能力是黄灯转红灯，仍然无法把超大规模云厂商的成本转嫁出去。利润率仍在恶化。他们在等超大规模云厂商的通缩。
Then they ended up having earnings. And on July 23rd, also in our course member live streams, we said pricing power yellow red still can't pass on hyperscaler costs. Margins are still worsening. They're waiting for hyperscaler deflation.
记住，我们是在开盘前做的这件事，在华尔街开盘时对 Service Now 竖起更大的中指之前。首先，他们的营收增长了约 20.5%，而他们的订阅费用增长了 58%。这跟 7 月那个该死的问题一模一样。他们陷在这堆又臭又烂的麻烦里。
remember we did this before the market opened before Wall Street gave Service Now even more of a middle finger at the open. First of all, their revenues were up about 20.5%. and their subscription expenses are up 58%.
That's the same damn problem from July. They're stuck with bad, stinky pee pee.
但听听他们的解释。他们的解释埋在文件里。我们手动找到的。没有用 AI。原话是：“我们预计，随着我们继续加速客户价值实现并支持客户从我们最新产品中获得最大价值，我们的专业服务及其他毛亏率在今年剩余时间将会上升。”
这到底是什么意思？我就在这里写下来了。我写的是，这是一种极其荒唐的说法，用来表达我们多花了 58% 的钱，只多赚了 20%。这就是股价下跌的原因，各位。
But listen to their explanation. Their explanation is buried in their documents. We manually found it. No AI. quote, "We expect our professional services and other gross loss percentage to increase for the remainder of the year as we continue to accelerate customer value realization and support our customers in gaining maximum value of our latest offerings."
What the hell does that mean? Well, I wrote it right here. I wrote this is an insane way to say we are spending 58% more to make 20% more. That's why the stock is down boys and girls.
我不认为 Service Now 会怎样，他们实际上只是在超大规模云厂商身上砸更多的钱。
I don't think Service Now who's actually just blowing more money on the hyperscalers.
不管是 Microsoft 那边发生了什么，SKHEX 发生了什么，Seagate、Western Digital 发生了什么，Nvidia 还是别的什么，都无所谓。我对这些非常看多。
CDS 正在下降，我对此看多。美联储偏鸽，我对此看多。Service Now，他们很烂。医疗保健，非常看多医疗保健。Google，我不在乎。
whether it's Microsoft what's happening with SKHEX uh what's happening with Seagate Western Digital uh you know Nvidia whatever doesn't matter very bullish about these CDS is coming down I'm bullish on that a dovish Fed I'm bullish on that service now they suck healthare very bullish healthcare Google don't care
观察点
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。