$NOW · Tom Nash · 2026-10-29
说话者对 ServiceNow 持乐观态度，尽管它目前不在他最看好的五只股票之列。他认为其单日下跌 18% 是恐惧驱动，而非业务恶化：营收增长 20.5%，自由现金流增长 39%，流动性是债务的 2.5 倍，40 法则约为 60，AI 业务增长 70%，前瞻市盈率为 24 倍。他称每股收益不及预期（0.27 对 0.35）以及 RPO 增长 8.5%、低于预期的 19% 都属次要，留下的是一家打了 18% 折扣的优秀公司。
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而“Service Now”下跌了18%。
And "Service Now" fell by 18%.
因为昨天我们看到一家像“ServiceNow”这样的公司，顺便说一句，它不在我的名单上，我只是提一下，但我必须给你们看看。你看，“ServiceNow”就是一个很好的例子。它不在我今天的前五名股票名单里，但我绝对看好它。
ServiceNow 的股价一天之内下跌了18%。为什么？如果你看看他们昨天公布的内容，会非常令人困惑。营收增长20%，实际上是20.5%。自由现金流增长了39%。他们在营收上超出预期，但在每股收益上不及预期。
他们公布的是0.27，而不是0.35。好。他们的剩余履约义务也增长了8.5%，而不是他们预期的19%。因此，履约义务的增长比预期低了半个百分点，每股收益也略低。但营收在主要增长，而且他们在营收上超出预期，自由现金流增长了40%，他们的流动性相当于债务的2.5倍，他们实现的“40法则”比率约为60，而该股目前的远期市盈率为24倍。
他们的人工智能板块正以70%的速度增长。所以，你拥有强大的质量、非常稳固的竞争优势，他们跟上了AI趋势，而这只股票一夜之间变得更便宜了。为什么？由于市场情绪、技术因素，以及百分比和小数点上的小失误。
没人在看实际业务。这是一家伟大的公司，却因为恐惧、恐慌和情绪化反应，突然在一夜之间给你18%的折扣。
Because yesterday we saw a company like "ServiceNow", which is not on my list by the way, I'm just mentioning it, but I have to show it to you . Look, " Service Now" is a great example.
It's not in my top five stock list today, but I'm definitely optimistic about it. ServiceNow's stock experienced an 18% drop in one day. Why? Well, if you look at what they announced yesterday, it's very confusing.
Revenue growth of 20%, or 20.5% in fact. Free cash flow grew by 39%. They outperformed in revenue but missed expectations in earnings per share. They announced 0.27 instead of 0.35.
Good. Their remaining performance obligations also increased by 8.5% instead of the 19% they had expected. Therefore, the growth in performance obligations was half a percentage point lower , and earnings per share were slightly lower.
But revenues are growing primarily, and they have outperformed in revenues, free cash flow has increased by 40%, they have liquidity equivalent to 2.5 times their debt , they are achieving a "rule of 40" ratio of about 60, and the stock is currently trading at 24 times forward earnings.
Their artificial intelligence sector is growing at a rate of 70%. So, you have strong quality, a very solid competitive advantage, they are keeping up with the AI trend, and the stock has become cheaper overnight.
Why? Due to market sentiment, technical factors, and minor failures in percentages and decimal places. No one is looking at the actual business. This is a great company that suddenly gives you an 18% discount overnight because of fear, panic, and emotional reactions.