$NOW · Financial Education · 2026-10-28
ServiceNow 不值得买入,说话者计划卖出剩余持仓:第三季度每股收益1美元,低于1.02美元的预期;第四季度订阅营收指引为42.4亿至42.55亿美元,仅与预期的42.5亿美元持平;营收增长21%的同时,营业费用上升22%,营业利润下降33%。在极高估值和极高预期之下,管理层的说法缺乏数字支撑。
逐段跳播
ServiceNow正遭到猛烈抛售。这根箭头从斜坡上掉了下来。我的意思是,它在交易时段内就已经跌得很低了。它已经跌了3%,但再加上更多,谁知道会跌到多少,盘后也许15%到20%。
哦,这太狠了,对吧?ServiceNow。这只股票我几天前刚在普通账户里获利了结,我在频道里讲过这件事。我也在私享内容里讲过。但我仍然以六位数的仓位、10万美元建仓,这只股票涨了52%。
我可以告诉你,后天,我不会在这只股票上赚到52%的利润。
ServiceNow is being brutally attacked. This arrow fell from a slope. I mean, it was already significantly low during the trading session. It has dropped 3%, but add more to that, who knows how much it will reach, maybe 15 to 20% after trading hours.
Oh, that's harsh, isn't it? Service Now. This is a stock I just took profits from in the general account a few days ago, and I covered that here on the channel. I have also covered that within the private collection.
But I still entered these profits with a six-figure position, $100,000, a 52% increase in this stock. I can tell you that the day after tomorrow, I won't be making a 52% profit on this stock.
啊,ServiceNow。买入还是卖出?我们该怎么办?
Ah, Service Now. Buy or sell? What are we doing here?
好,至于ServiceNow,事情是这样的。这家公司股价大幅下跌,而且明显跌到了夸张的程度。我们会看到20%左右的跌幅,对吧?第三季度调整后每股收益为1美元。分析师平均预期是1.02美元。
所以它们略微不及预期。第四季度订阅收入指引在42.4亿美元到42.55亿美元之间。华尔街预期是42.5亿美元。听着,伙计。你知道这只股票之前热情高涨。它非常受欢迎。我的意思是,它从80美元涨到150美元,在这些利润之前甚至超过了150美元。
一只拥有那么强劲动能的股票,你不能这么做。你不能在每股收益不达标的同时,给出几乎符合预期的收入预测。你不能这么做,伙计。你需要交出比那更好的业绩。好吗?你知道,我总是告诉你们,我从不跟任何合作伙伴粉饰真相,对吧?
我会始终像评估其他任何公司一样严格地评估它们,有时甚至更严格。你不能美化这种情况。这是ServiceNow的糟糕表现。
Okay, as for "Service Now", here's the thing. This corporate company has declined significantly and clearly to an exaggerated degree. We'll see a drop of 20% or so, won't we? Adjusted earnings for the third quarter came in at one dollar per share.
The average analyst estimate was $1.02. So they missed the mark a little. Subscription revenue guidance for the fourth quarter ranged between $4.24 billion and $4.255 billion. Wall Street expectations were at $4.25 billion.
Listen, man. You know that this stock was burning with enthusiasm. It was very popular. I mean, it went up from $80 to $150, and even exceeded $150 before these profits. You can't do that with a stock that has all that momentum.
You cannot provide revenue forecasts that are almost in line with expectations while failing to deliver earnings per share. You can't do that, man. You need to deliver better results than that.
Good? You know, I always tell you that I never sugarcoat the truth with any of my partners, right? I will always evaluate them with the same rigor as any other companies, and sometimes even more rigorously.
You cannot beautify this situation. This is a poor performance from "Service Now".
目前,收入不错。增长21%。这不错,但算不上出色。它们没有那种让你惊呼“哇,比我们预期好得多”的收入大幅加速。21%大致就是你在这些利润之前预期的水平,对吧?但看看这家公司的费用,好吗?
订阅收入成本增长了58%。总收入成本增长了56%。因此,毛利润同比只增长了10%。是不是这样?然后销售和营销费用增长了20%。我们说的是比毛利润增长整整高出10个百分点。是不是这样?
研发。公司研发费用按年计算增长了27%。一般及行政费用按年计算增长了11%。因此,这些也超过了毛利润增长。公司总运营费用同比增长22%。这导致运营收入下降了33%。因为毛利润只增长了10%,而你要面对所有这些费用,对吧?
运营收入会被摧毁。因此,运营收入下降了33%。这就是ServiceNow的问题所在。问题不在于费用中只有某一项有问题。事实上,所有这些费用项目都是问题。全部都是,伙计。公司收入同比下降了45%。
摊薄每股收益下降了44%。我的意思是,如果你的收入增长21%,而净利润下降44%,对吧?这不好。非常不好。尤其是考虑到这不是因为一次性的偶然事件。如果情况类似谷歌那样带有偶发因素,也许还可以接受,对吧?
比如你的投资估值之类发生了变化,影响了每股收益。这是ServiceNow的真正问题。整个都是,对吧?
Right now, the revenue is good. Growth of 21%. It's good, but it's nothing exceptional. They don't have a huge acceleration in revenue that makes you say, "Wow, it's much better than we expected." 21% is roughly what you were expecting before these profits, isn't it?
But look at this company's expenses, okay? The cost of subscription revenue increased by 58%. The total cost of revenue increased by 56%. Therefore, gross profit increased by only 10% year-on-year.
Isn't that so? Then you had a 20% increase in sales and marketing expenses. We are talking about a full 10 percentage points higher than gross profit growth. Isn't that so? Research and development.
Research and development expenses increased by 27% for the company on an annual basis. General and administrative expenses increased by 11% for the company on an annual basis. Therefore, it also outperformed gross profit growth.
The company's total operating expenses increased by 22% year-on-year. This resulted in a 33% decrease in operating income. Because the gross profit increased by only 10%, while you faced all those expenses, right?
The income from operations will be destroyed. Therefore, operating income is down by 33%. This is the problem here with "Service Now". It's not as if just one item is the problem with the expenses.
In fact, all of these expense items represent a problem. All of it, man. The company's revenue has dropped by 45% year-on-year. Diluted earnings per share decreased by 44%. I mean, if your revenue is growing by 21% while your net profit is decreasing by 44%, right?
This is not good. Not good at all. Especially when you consider that it wasn't due to a one-time accidental thing. It might be acceptable if it were a situation similar to Google where there is an incidental element, wouldn't it?
Where the valuation of your investments or something like that has changed and affected your earnings per share. This is a real problem with "Service Now". The whole thing, isn't it?
关于ServiceNow的情况,真相是这样的。这只股票值得买吗?在我看来,它不值得,伙计。它不值得。我本该离场的。我知道。我知道。我最近卖出了这只股票的一部分,我看着价格对自己说,伙计,我该把这股票清掉,但我就是没这么做。
我想离场。他错过了离场的机会。我可能会把剩下的也卖掉。现在的问题是,我会以低得多的价格卖出。我仍然会从这只股票上赚到不错的利润,对吧?这一点要说清楚。这只股票明天不会跌50%,但如果我按自己的想法清掉全部持股,我本可以赚很多钱。
啊,我的意思是,这令人失望。这令人沮丧,因为数字令人失望。即使你看预期义务之类的。即使那样,那些数字也令人沮丧。没有任何东西能证明Bill McDermott在通信会议上的大话。
在他进行的每一次电话会议和采访中,你都会以为这家公司将实现史上最好的增长。然后你看到业绩,发现它们令人失望,对吧?没有任何东西能让你说:“天哪,哇,他们的增长真的起飞了。”我们看到的唯一变化就是移动。
说清楚一点,是他们的费用。所以他想说什么都可以,但归根结底,我们看增长率,它们完全符合我们的预期。没有任何积极方面,但费用看起来比我们预期的糟糕得多。这在ServiceNow身上造成了难看的局面,伙计。非常难看的局面,对吧?
Here's the truth about the situation with "Service Now". Is the stock worth buying? In my opinion, he doesn't deserve that, man. He's not worth it. I should have left. I knew that.
I knew that. I recently sold a portion of this stock, and I was looking at the price and saying to myself, man, I should get rid of this stock, but I didn't the hell do it. I wanted to go out.
He missed his chance to get out. I will probably sell the rest. The problem now is that I will sell at a much lower price. I'll still make a good profit from the stock, won't I?
Let's be very clear about this point. The stock won't drop 50% tomorrow, but I would have made a lot of money if I had gotten rid of all my shares as I wanted. Ah, I mean, it's disappointing.
It is frustrating because the numbers are disappointing. Even when you look at expected obligations and the like. Even then, those numbers are depressing. There is nothing to justify Bill McDermott's big talk at communications conferences.
In every call and interview he conducts, you think this company is going to achieve the best growth ever. Then you get to the results, and you find them disappointing, don't you?
There is nothing that makes you say, "Oh my God, wow, their growth is really taking off." And the only thing we see is moving. Let's be perfectly clear, it's their expenses. So he can say whatever he wants, but at the end of the day, we look at the growth rates and they are exactly as we expected.
There are no positive aspects, but the expenses look much worse than we expected. This creates an ugly situation with "Service Now", man. A very ugly situation, isn't it?
ServiceNow的问题在于,它以非常高的估值交易,承载着非常高的预期,然后它们没有交出任何令人兴奋的东西。
The problem with ServiceNow is that it trades at a very high valuation with very high expectations, and then they don't deliver anything exciting.
我的意思是,Bill是个好CEO。这些年来他在ServiceNow做得不错,对吧?但他话说得很多,却没有用行动来兑现。在我看来,他就是没有用数字来支撑自己的说法。
I mean, Bill is a good CEO. He's done a good job with ServiceNow over the years, hasn't he? But he talks a lot and doesn't back it up with actions. In my opinion, he simply doesn't back up his claims with numbers.
你不能给出与其他所有人预期完全一致的收入预测。这真的很令人失望,伙计。你知道,对于一家费用如此失控的公司来说。如果他们的费用得到控制,情况会完全不同,因为我们会说:“嗯,费用控制住了。
收入增长超过20%。很好。”现在不是这种情况。我们看到整个公司费用失控。在所有方面,收入看起来都“哦,还行”。所以,这里的寓意是,CRM的股票明天也会因此下跌,对吧?这会把所有这类股票都拖下水。
Um, you know, you can't give revenue forecasts that exactly match what everyone else was expecting. This is really disappointing, man. You know, for a company whose expenses are out of control like this.
If their expenses were under control, the situation would be completely different, because we would say: "Well, expenses are under control. Revenues are growing by more than 20%.
Great." This is not the current situation. We are seeing out-of-control expenses throughout the entire company. In everything, revenues seem to be "Oh, okay". So, the moral of the story here is, you know, that CRM's stock will also decline tomorrow because of this, right? This will pull all these types of stocks down.
观察点
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。