$NOW · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-02
ServiceNow 跌至约 105 美元后构成买入机会。剩余履约义务增长 22% 至 297 亿美元，略高于 20.5% 的营收增速，暗示营收可持续增长或加速；AI 合同价值增长 70% 至 17 亿美元。远期市盈率略低于 22 倍，接近历史最低，而预期每股收益增长约 24.5%，增速超过估值倍数。现金流增长温和令人失望，但合理价值约为每股 143 美元。
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ServiceNow 公布营收超过41亿美元，同比增长超过20%，并上调了2026年全年业绩预期。然而，投资者原本期待并希望看到更多，对这些季度业绩感到失望。
ServiceNow announced revenues exceeding $4.1 billion, an increase of more than 20% compared to the same period last year, and raised its full-year projections for 2026. However, investors were expecting and hoping for more and were disappointed with these quarterly results.
ServiceNow 公布这些业绩后股价大幅下跌，目前交易价格已低得多。投资者在问我，这究竟是买入机会，还是该抛掉 ServiceNow 股票的时候了。
ServiceNow's stock fell sharply after the company announced these results, and is now trading at a much lower price . Investors are asking me whether this is a buying opportunity or if it's time to get rid of ServiceNow shares.
管理层表示，营收增长和盈利能力指标均超出了其预期的上限，同时上调了对2026年剩余时间的展望。
Management indicated that it exceeded the upper end of its expectations for revenue growth and profitability metrics, while raising its outlook for the remainder of 2026.
剩余履约义务最终会转化为营收，本季度它算是相对的一个亮点，增长22%至297亿美元。我喜欢看到公布这一指标的公司其增速高于营收增速，而 ServiceNow 正是如此，尽管幅度非常小。
Remaining performance liabilities , which eventually convert into revenue, were a relatively bright spot this quarter, rising 22% to $29.7 billion. I like to see companies reporting this metric have higher growth than their revenue growth, and that's what I saw from ServiceNow, albeit by a very small margin .
剩余履约义务（RPO）增长22%，而营收增长20.5%。在我看来，这表明营收增长在当前水平上是可持续的，如果他们能继续签下增加剩余履约义务的合同，甚至可能加速。
22% growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) compared to 20.5% growth in revenues. This suggests to me that revenue growth is sustainable at these levels, and may even accelerate if they can continue to sign contracts that increase their remaining performance obligations.
回想今年早些时候，大约在2月份，ServiceNow 曾处于风口浪尖，当时正值所谓的“SaaS 末日”，投资者担心像 ServiceNow 这样的公司会被那些直接采用大型语言模型来整合业务的组织所边缘化。
Recall that earlier this year, around February, ServiceNow was in the spotlight amid what was dubbed the “ SaaS-pocalypse,” when investors feared that companies like ServiceNow would be sidelined by organizations that went straight to big language models to integrate into their businesses.
2026年这种情况实际上还没有发生，但 ServiceNow 实际上已成为人工智能的瞭望塔，其 AI 合同的年度价值在2026年再次升至17亿美元。
That hasn't actually happened yet in 2026 , but ServiceNow has actually become the watchtower for artificial intelligence, with the annual value of its AI contracts rising again to $1.7 billion for 2026.
这较年初增长了70%。管理团队表示，其人工智能服务的采用正在不断加速。事实上，他们表示 ServiceNow 处于理想位置，可以帮助客户在业务中运用人工智能、管理每一个代理和每一道流程，并将智能转化为安全且可衡量的成果。
That represents a 70% increase compared to the beginning of the year. The management team indicated that the adoption of their artificial intelligence services is constantly accelerating.
In fact, they stated that ServiceNow is ideally positioned to help customers employ artificial intelligence in their business, manage every agent and every procedure, and turn intelligence into secure and measurable results.
换句话说，它已成为企业范围内人工智能应用的瞭望塔，掌控着 AI 能做什么、拥有哪些权限和限制等等。
In other words, it has become the watchtower for the application of artificial intelligence across the enterprise, controlling what AI can do, what permissions and limits are available to it, and so on.
他们还补充说，客户正在迅速增加对 AI 代理的使用，年初至今的消耗量和产出同比增长超过13倍。
They added that customers are rapidly increasing their use of AI proxies, with year-to-date consumption and output more than 13 times year-on-year.
ServiceNow 令人失望的一点之一是其经营现金流增长温和，升至8.39亿美元，而去年同期为8.13亿美元。
One of ServiceNow's disappointments is the modest growth in its operating cash flow , which rose to $839 million compared to $813 million in the same quarter last year.
而这还是在公司于2026年初收购了价值超过90亿美元的业务之后发生的，投资者原本希望这能推动公司的业务增长。因此，股价暴跌使得 ServiceNow 目前的远期市盈率略低于22倍。
This comes even after the company acquired more than $9 billion worth of business in early 2026, which investors had hoped would boost the company's business growth. Therefore , the stock price collapse has resulted in ServiceNow now trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just under 22.
这一水平接近该股有史以来的最低交易价格。它正在接近此前软件即服务（SaaS）危机期间所处的交易水平，当时其基于远期市盈率的估值跌破了20。
This level is close to the lowest price at which the stock has ever traded. It is approaching the levels at which it traded previously during the Software as a Service ( SaaS) crisis, when its valuation based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio fell below 20.
我认为这是一个有吸引力的买入机会，因为预计该公司的每股收益增速将高于其远期市盈率。事实上，跟踪ServiceNow的华尔街分析师预计，该公司未来几年的每股收益增速约为24.5%。
I see this as an attractive buying opportunity because the company's earnings per share growth is expected to be greater than its forward price-to-earnings ratio. In fact, Wall Street analysts who follow ServiceNow expect the company to achieve earnings per share growth of about 24.5% over the next few years.
同样，这个数字大于公司未来的盈利倍数，而通常当我看到这种情况时，它看起来像是一个有吸引力的持仓。我还将最新进展纳入我对未来的预测，更新了我对ServiceNow的公允价值计算。
Again, this number is larger than the company's future earnings multiple, and usually when I see this, it looks like an attractive position. I have also updated my fair value calculation for ServiceNow by incorporating the latest developments into my future estimates.
我得出的结论是，这项业务的价值约为每股143美元，而当前市场价格为105美元。
The conclusion I reached is that the value of this business is approximately $143 per share, compared to the current market price of $105.
所以，回答我在引言和标题中提出的问题：是的，我认为这是一个买入机会。
So, to answer the question I posed in the introduction and in the title, yes, I see this as a buying opportunity.
这个频道对 $NOW 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。