NTAP 长期趋势与基本面看涨，但技术面已过度延伸；更倾向于在回调至 20 日均线（约 220 美元）时入场。
逐段跳播
你有 NetApp，其股价创下历史新高，并获得 Evercore ISI 的评级上调，给出了一个全新的、极高的目标价。
You have NetApp, whose stock hit an all- time high and received an upgrade from Evercore ISI with a new, extremely high target price.
这家公司对这个行业并不陌生。它已经耕耘了 30 年，帮助企业存储、保护和管理海量数据。因此，我在这些交易中的思路是专注于寻找利用人工智能的替代方式，而不仅仅是想着 Nvidia、Microsoft 或某些半导体芯片。
它们都需要芯片，这可以理解，但数据存储在哪里呢？这正是 NetApp 的用武之地。这些公司帮助企业——例如医院、银行和政府机构——存储它们需要存储、并可能需要长期保存的海量数据，而这正是 NetApp 的用武之地。
This company is no stranger to this sector. It has been working for 30 years to help companies store, protect and manage massive amounts of data. Therefore, my thinking in these deals was focused on finding alternative ways to leverage artificial intelligence, beyond just thinking about Nvidia, Microsoft, or some semiconductor chips.
They all need chips, that's understandable, but what about where to store the data? This is where NetApp comes in. Well, these companies help businesses—such as hospitals, banks, and government agencies— store massive amounts of data that they need to store and possibly keep for a long time, and that's where NetApp comes in.
从技术上看，该股处于上行趋势，跟随 10 日移动均线，并反弹至 20 这一水平附近，自 6 月以来该水平一直充当支撑。因此，我对这一长期上行趋势印象深刻。到目前为止，20 这一水平在很大程度上是可预测的，伴随反弹和回调，然后该股利用 10 日移动均线向上移动。因此，它提供了一些非常好的技术指标。
Technically, the stock is in an upward trend, tracking the 10-day moving average with bounces to around the 20 level, which has been acting as support since June. Therefore, I am impressed with the long-term upward trend.
Up to now, the 20 level has been largely predictable with bounces and pullbacks, then the stock has moved upwards using the 10-day moving average. Therefore, it provides some really good technical indicators.
我的意思是，自年初以来，NetApp 股价已上涨近 120%，但你在这里是遵循同样的移动均线，还是在看别的东西？
I mean, since the beginning of the year , NetApp stock has risen by almost 120%, but are you following the same moving averages here or are you looking at something different?
不。我的意思是，你看，这是一个上行趋势，如果我们看一年期的日线图，我们会发现该股在去年这个时候创下了更低的高点和低点。我们几乎在 93 至 95 美元的水平触底。我们经历了大约两个半月的盘整期，然后开始上涨。
这就是热情开始的地方，成交量显著增加。我们在去年 6 月看到一个向上跳空缺口。然后有大约一个半月的盘整期，然后我们再次开始上涨。我们达到了 207 美元的水平，然后我们再次站稳，利用 50 日移动均线作为支撑，继续攀升，现在我们正在录得这些高点。因此，最终，该股创下更高的高点和更低的低点。
no. I mean, look, it's an upward trend, and if we look at the chart on a daily timeframe for a year, we'll find that this stock has made lower highs and lows at this time last year.
We were able to reach the bottom almost at the $93 to $95 level. We experienced a period of consolidation for approximately two and a half months, then we started to rise. This is where the enthusiasm began, and the trading volume increased significantly.
We saw an upward gap last June. Then there was a period of consolidation for about a month and a half , then we started to rise again. We reached the $207 level , then we held firm again, taking advantage of the 50-day moving average as support, and continued to climb, and now we are recording these peaks.
Therefore, in the end, the stock makes higher highs and lower lows .
如你所见，这只股票的动能依然强劲。在我们每天关注的所有指标中，都没有观察到任何下滑。因此，这只股票总体上被认为处于上升趋势。不过，如果因快速上涨而形成尖锐的顶部形态，预计会回调至约 207 美元，这是该股维持这一上升趋势必须站稳的水平。
如果价格跌破 20 日移动均线，随后又跌破 50 日移动均线，那么我们预计会大幅下跌，向 200 日移动均线靠拢。看周线图，我们发现它仍然看涨。我们观察到一段盘整期，随后是小幅上涨的延续。
在三年期周线图上，我唯一要指出的是成交量。过去两周，这里的数据在价格走势和成交量方面都略显疲弱。因此，请记住，成交量不足以支撑价格走势，但如果热情持续，这只股票可能会继续上涨。
As you can see, the momentum of this stock is still strong. We do not observe any decline in any of the indicators we focus on daily. Therefore, this stock is generally considered to be in an upward trend.
However, if a sharp peak pattern forms as a result of the rapid movement, a pullback to approximately $207 is expected, which is the level at which the stock must stabilize to maintain this upward trend.
If the price falls below the 20-day moving average , and then below the 50-day moving average, then we expect a sharp drop towards the 200-day moving average . Looking at the weekly chart, we find that it is still bullish.
We observe periods of consolidation, followed by a continuation of slight increases. The only thing I would point out in the three-year weekly chart is the trading volume. The data here is somewhat weak with regard to price movement and trading volume over the past two weeks.
Therefore, keep in mind that the trading volume is not sufficient to support the price movement, but if the enthusiasm continues, this stock may continue to rise.
我依据的是 43 天。目前几乎所有期权都延伸到 11 月。当我审视这只股票时，由于它相对 10 日移动均线略微超买，我希望它在做出任何决定之前先靠近 20 日移动均线，我认为它处于下跌之中，但我对它仍然印象深刻。
方向才是解决之道。所以，我在这里要做的是看 2026 年 11 月 20 日的到期日。我要卖出执行价为 220 的看跌期权。我今天早上早些时候查过，它的成本是 8.50 美元。
所以，你知道，如果算一下，每投入 22,000 美元，你可以收取 850 美元，但你可能不需要投入全部金额，因为只有当股价跌到 220 美元时你才必须买入股票。如果它跌到 220 美元，那个价格非常接近 20 日移动均线，那是一个价格反弹水平。
因此，如果以 220 美元的价格把股票给我，我会满意，但如果我为此拿到 8.50 美元，那么我进入这笔交易时的实际成本其实低于 220 美元。这就是我喜欢的地方。如果我必须持有这只股票，它会派发股息，但我也可以在价格区间之外卖出看涨期权。
这就是我处理这只股票的方式。显然，如果价格跌破 20 日移动均线，我们就必须重新评估，但即便如此，我也会获得 8.50 美元的利润空间，然后我可以针对这个头寸卖出看涨期权。因此，我倾向于处于一个无论价格上涨、企稳甚至下跌都能获利的头寸。
如果它下跌，我将获得买入一只我本来就会以自己偏好的价格买入的股票的回报，只是价格略低一些。我认为这是双赢的局面。
I am relying on 43 days. Almost all options extend into November at this stage. When I look at this stock, and because it is slightly overextended from the 10-day moving average , and I would like it to get closer to the 20-day moving average before making any decision, I consider it to be in decline, but I am still impressed with it.
Direction is the solution. So, what I'm going to do here is look at the expiry date of November 20, 2026. I'm going to sell the put option at an execution price of 220. I checked that earlier this morning.
It cost $8.50. So, you know, if we do the math, for every $22,000 invested, you can withdraw $850, but you may not need to invest that entire amount, because you will only have to buy the stock if its price drops to $220.
If it drops to $220, that price is very close to the 20-day moving average, which is a price bounce level. Therefore, I would be satisfied if I were offered the stock at $220, but if I got $8.50 for it, I would actually be below the $220 level when I entered the deal.
That's what I like. If I have to own the stock, it pays dividends, but I can also sell call options outside the price range. This is how I will handle this stock. Obviously, if the price falls below the 20-day moving average, we will have to reassess, but even so, I will get a profit margin of $8.50, and I can then sell call options against this position.
Therefore, I prefer to be in a position that allows me to make a profit whether the price rises, stabilizes, or even falls. If it declines, I will get a return on buying a stock that I would have bought at my preferred price anyway, but at a slightly lower price. I think it's a win-win situation .
观察点
这个频道对 $NTAP 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。