NVDA 凭借大规模回购以及先进的 AI 安全能力,处于非常有利的地位。
逐段跳播
现在我们转向 Nvidia,它今天承担了大量繁重的工作,Creative Strategies 的技术分析师 Max 回归了。
We now turn to Nvidia, which is doing a lot of hard work today with the return of Max, a technical analyst at Creative Strategies.
这件事有多个层面。显然,有股票回购的消息,有 AI 软件安全的消息,然后还有整个事情中的中国因素。不过,很多人认为前两个层面密切相关。就股票回购和 AI 安全而言,它们几乎代表同一个故事。
there are multiple parts to this story. Obviously, you have stock buyback news, AI software security news , and then there's the China angle to all of this. However, many people argue that the first two parts are closely related .
They represent almost the same story with regard to share buybacks and AI security.
我认为 Nvidia 的回购首先是一个信心的信号,胜过其他任何解读。他们赚的钱太多了,现在完全有能力回购,拥有 250 亿美元的回购授权,同时还能继续投资研发,并投资其他公司的数据中心,以帮助壮大 AI 生态系统以及其他主要云服务提供商。
I believe that Nvidia's buybacks are a sign of confidence more than anything else. They are making so much money that they can afford to buy back now, with a $25 billion mandate for buybacks, as well as continuing to invest in research and development and data centers at other companies to help grow the AI ecosystem and other major cloud service providers as well.
总体而言,我认为这表明他们处于非常强势的地位,这对市场来说是个好迹象。那么 Max,这在多大程度上关系到员工?因为员工配额是 Nvidia 吸引顶尖人才的众多方式之一,尤其是对 Nvidia 这样的公司而言,吸引工程人才。
Overall, I think this shows that they are in a very strong position , which is a good sign for the market. And "Max," to what extent does this concern the employees? Because employee quotas are one of the many ways Nvidia attracts top talent, especially engineering talent for a company like Nvidia.
就分散股票而言,这有多重要?我的意思是,这是整场讨论中唯一多少有些显而易见的部分,但这里并没有人真正在谈论如何弥补这一点。
How important is this in terms of diversifying stocks? I mean, that's the only part of the conversation that's somewhat obvious, but nobody's really talking about making up for that here.
我认为,随着他们开始给员工更高的薪酬,作为公司整体增长的一部分,这些奖金会变得更大。
I think that as they start compensating their employees more, these bonuses become bigger as part of the company's overall growth.
如你所知,作为薪酬发放的这些奖金和股票,金额并非微不足道。这确实有助于缓解一些与救济等相关的压力。别误会,这是一个相对较小的百分比,但我认为总体而言,重要的是要指出,这不仅仅是——我知道其他一些公司可能会在收入不变的情况下把这称为提振每股收益,而你现在在每股收益上有这个,就是 4% 的差异。
As you know, these are not insignificant amounts of bonuses and shares that are awarded as compensation. This does indeed help to alleviate some of the stress related to relief and the like .
It's a relatively small percentage , don't get me wrong , but I think overall, it's important to say, you know, that this isn't just , I know some other companies might call it boosting EPS if you keep revenue the same and you now have this in EPS, it's a 4% difference.
放在整体背景下,这算不上什么,但我认为所有这些细小的部分结合起来构成了这里完整的故事,那就是 Nvidia 现在如此强大,它不再需要担心稀释自己的股票,它可以回购并更多地帮助员工,并把这作为吸引顶尖人才的更有力手段,因为他们寻求壮大这个开放生态系统。
It doesn't amount to much in the overall context, but I think all these little bits combine to form the whole story here, which is that Nvidia is so strong now, it no longer has to worry about diluting its stock, and it can buy back and help its employees more, and use that as a more powerful means of attracting top talent as they seek to grow this open ecosystem.
这至少为今天的股价设定了一个最低价格。我的意思是,我们知道估值在最近几个季度有所下降。我只是想知道,回购计划相对于我们听到的关于 AI 安全软件的消息,在多大程度上影响了我们今天在 Nvidia 看到的走势,尤其是考虑到半导体板块更广泛的抛售。
This has certainly set a minimum price for the stock today, at least . I mean, we know that the valuation has declined in recent quarters. I'm just wondering how much the buyback plan versus what we're hearing about AI security software is influencing the move we're seeing today at Nvidia, especially in light of the broader sell-off in the semiconductor sector .
我认为其中没有多少可以归因于回购,但我认为这首先是一个强势的有力指标,因为归根结底,总体而言这是一个很大的数字。
I don't think much of it comes down to buybacks, but I consider this a strong indicator of strength more than anything else, because ultimately it's a large number overall.
我的意思是,这在 10 年前相当于这些巨头公司中不少公司的市值,而现在对他们来说只是一笔大额回购。总体而言,我认为今天早上他们发布了关于“沙盒”以及他们一些 AI 安全解决方案的公告,这对他们来说是一个非常强烈的信号。
I mean, this would have represented the market value of quite a few of these huge companies 10 years ago, and now it's just a big buyback for them. Overall, I think that this morning they made their announcement about "sandboxing" and some of their AI security solutions , which is a very strong signal for them .
但另一方面,如果 AI 安全是个问题,而我们没有解决方案,Nvidia 可能就有解决方案。正如 Sam 和 Daria 反复说过的那样,这会让开发完全停滞吗?
But on the other hand, if AI security is a problem and we don't have solutions for it, Nvidia might have the solution. Will this, as Sam and Daria have repeatedly stated, bring development to a complete halt ?
总的来说,我并不一定认为这会发生,但这些都是人们会提出的问题,而它们显然会影响整体股价以及与之相关的一切。Max,你怎么看这则广告?我的意思是,这不仅仅是一个新安全项目的发布,即“Open Proxy Security Platform”。
他们公开表示,他们能够在几毫秒的极小时间内阻止一次“Hugging Face”攻击。
In general, I don't necessarily think that will happen , but these are questions that people will ask, and they will obviously affect the overall share price and everything related to it.
Max, what do you think of this advertisement? I mean, it wasn't just the launch of a new security program, the " Open Proxy Security Platform". They came out and said things like they were able to stop a "Hugging Face" attack in fractions of a millisecond.
我的意思是,他们在这里确实有一个参照点,因为他们拥有“Hugging Face”,所以他们很可能掌握关于这次攻击本身非常详细的信息。
I mean, they definitely have a point of reference here since they own "Hugging Face," so they probably have very detailed information about the attack itself.
但同样,正如我提到的,在Dario Amodie和Sam Altman推动这种放缓和减速的情况下,这呈现出一种完全相反的视角。人工智能的安全在这里是一个工程和基础设施问题,而不是应当被压制的事情。那么,你如何看待它在这个更广泛背景下的位置?
But also, as I mentioned, with Dario Amodie and Sam Altman pushing for this slowing down and this deceleration, this presents a completely opposite viewpoint. The safety of artificial intelligence here is an engineering and infrastructure problem, not something to be suppressed.
So, how do you view its place in this broader context?
Alex Coffey指出,他对一些网络安全公司对这一问题的反应,或者说缺乏反应,感到意外。我认为总的来说,如果你看看“沙箱”保护技术实际上是如何运作的,以“Hugging Face”事件为例,OpenAI表示他们禁用了保护措施,因为测试的一部分本意是衡量网络模型的能力,而要测试它,就必须让它拥有完全访问权限,这需要移除其中一些防护措施。
Alex Coffey noted that he was surprised by the reaction, or lack of reaction, from some cybersecurity companies to this issue. I think that in general, if you look at how the "sandboxing" protection technique actually works, in the " ugging Face" incident for example, OpenAI said that they disabled the protection because part of the test was intended to measure the cyber model's capabilities , and to test it, it had to have full access, which required removing some of those safeguards.
这是他们作为流程的一部分提到的事情,而模型做了它不该做的事情,不是吗?它逃出了本应将其限制住的保护环境,而这仅仅是一个安全漏洞,是保护环境本身的设计缺陷,使得这本不该被允许发生的事情得以发生。
This is something they mentioned as part of the process , and the model did things it shouldn't have done, didn't it ? He escaped the protective environments that were supposed to keep him contained, and that was simply a security flaw, a design flaw in the protective environment itself that allowed this to happen when it should not have been allowed.
这些保护环境以及Nvidia一些新的“Open Shell”和“Open Agent”平台,是针对这一问题的不同解决方案。
These protection environments and some of Nvidia's new "Open Shell" and "Open Agent" platforms are different solutions to this problem.
它们没有一个是100%有保证的。我的意思是,OpenAI以为它的环境不包含可能允许这种情况发生的缺陷,然而却出现了某些事情证明了相反的情况。
None of them are 100% guaranteed. I mean, OpenAI assumed that its environment did not contain flaws that might allow this, yet something came up to prove the opposite.
而现在Nvidia声称拥有一个更好的解决方案,具备更多的保护和安全,这很棒。我们必须拥有这个。此外,“Open Agent”在算力方面也是一个好迹象,因为其中一部分在于,当模型在思考时,你必须在它执行之前监控它计划做什么,并将其输入到另一个模型中。
And now Nvidia claims to have a better solution, with more protection and security, which is great . We must have that. Furthermore, "Open Agent" is a good sign in terms of computing as well, because part of it is that while the model is thinking, you have to monitor what it plans to do before it executes, and feed that to another model.
你需要运行推理,并在允许模型采取行动之前确保其意图是合理的,而这正是将在“Open Shell”环境内部发生的事情。
You need to run the inference and make sure that the model's intent is sound before allowing it to take action, which is what will happen inside the "Open Shell" environment.
所以,所有这些都强化了这样一个观点:我们在这里拥有非常强大的算力。而且是的,我显然本可以在“Hugging Face”事件以及其他事件发生之后阻止它们。
So , all of this reinforces the idea that we have very strong computing capabilities here. And yes, I could clearly have stopped the "Hugging Face" incident and other incidents after they happened.
但现在我们还需要在推理之外增加更多算力,以防止这些模型在事情发生之前就做出行动,纠正错误行为,并作为推理过程和整体模型训练的一部分进行调整。
But now we also need to add more computing alongside inference to prevent these models from doing things before they happen, correcting faulty behavior and adjusting as part of the inference process and model training in general.
所以,我认为我们会在Molly刚才所说的基础上继续,Max。我的意思是,你认为这将对整个板块产生什么影响?因为今天的反应很有意思。我的意思是,你看到所有分析师都公开站出来说他们支持这条消息。
So, I think we'll build on what Molly just said, Max. I mean, what impact do you think this will have on the sector as a whole? Because today's reaction was interesting. I mean, you see all the analysts coming out into the open and saying that they support this news.
这是一个行业领导者站出来说他们正在正面应对。他们会处理它。他们会为它辩护。事情不会放缓。关键在于落实防护措施。这不仅仅是为了Nvidia。相反,它是为整个行业而设的。
This is an industry leader coming out to say that they are facing it head-on . They will deal with it. They will defend him. Things won't slow down. It's about putting in place safeguards.
This is not just for Nvidia. Rather, it is intended for the entire industry.
然而,半导体板块的其他部分仍在下跌。正如我们之前提到的,网络安全股在开盘前处于低位,或许是作为对此的反应,现在正在上涨。
However, the rest of the semiconductor sector is still in decline. As we mentioned earlier, cybersecurity stocks, which were low before the opening, perhaps as a reaction to this, are now seeing an increase.
是否有什么事情是市场仍然不信服、还在观望等待的?
Is there something the market is still unconvinced of and waiting to see?
我认为问题出在政府介入其中许多环节的时候,而他们并没有介入,或者当事情超出了仅仅说一句“好,我们可以向你保证这里的网络安全是可靠的”的时候。
I think it's when the government gets involved in a lot of this, which they don't , or when it goes beyond just saying "Okay, we can promise you that cybersecurity here is good."
问题是:我们是否拥有监管机构的信心,相信这件事真的会发生?是否每个人都相信这是真的?我们是否需要外部第三方?我知道他们谈到过为人工智能设立一个类似FINRA的机构。我们需要这个吗?
The question is: Do we have the confidence of regulatory bodies that this will actually happen? Does everyone believe this is true ? Do we need an external party? I know they talked about the existence of an organization like FINRA for artificial intelligence. Do we need this?
而如果你开始加入这些东西,无论有没有开放系统、更好的平台、隔离测试环境和全面的安全保障,这些仍然是悬而未决的问题。
And if you start adding these things, these remain unanswered questions regardless of open systems, better platforms, isolated testing environments, and security for all.
我认为对网络安全公司来说,这其实并没有改变什么。假设你阻止了一个模型做出意外之举;这一切都是意外。假设你从一开始就阻止了一个模型意外地入侵他人,因为你把它放在了隔离环境中。
I think for cybersecurity companies , this doesn't really change anything. Let's say you prevented a model from doing something accidental; all of this is accidental. Let's say you prevented a model from accidentally hacking someone in the first place because you put it in an isolated environment.
好,假设一个恶意方没有那样做,而是直接把它用于入侵。网络安全仍然是必需的。所以,我认为这其中很多只是对新闻的膝跳式反应,但它并没有改变基本面;任何没有隔离环境的恶意方仍然能够渗透进某些东西。
Okay, let's assume that a malicious party did not do that and directed it directly to hacking. Cybersecurity is still needed . So, I think much of this is just a knee-jerk reaction to the news, but it doesn't change the fundamentals; Any malicious party without an isolated environment will still be able to penetrate something .
网络安全仍然是必需的,而这些网络安全公司可以扩大其运营规模,在隔离环境中,让系统在类似的环境里被入侵。你可以对一家公司发起大规模入侵攻击,预测它们,防御它们,建立网络安全控制措施,并在任何事情发生之前提升整体安全性。
Cybersecurity is still needed, and these cybersecurity companies can scale up their operations, and in an isolated environment, let the system be hacked in a similar environment.
You can scale massive hacking attacks against a single company, predict them, protect against them, build cybersecurity controls , and improve overall security before anything happens.
我认为总体而言,这一切都归结为基本面,这印证了我们仍然需要非常强大的网络安全。我们仍然需要真正强大的保护,但我们不知道这一切是否已经得到解决和承诺,也不知道政府是否有信心它是真的。
I think overall this all comes down to the basics, which confirms that we still need very strong cybersecurity. We still need really strong protection, but we don't know if all of this has been resolved and promised, and if the government is confident it's true.
可能只需要一个小事件,它就可能发生。我知道OpenAI上周末就遭遇了一次。是的,只要一件事就能让一切倒退,我不知道我们是否已经到了可以真正说它结束了、不会再有别的事情发生的地步。
没有人知道,而我认为市场有点,你知道,紧抓着这一点不放。
It may only take one small incident and it could happen. I know that OpenAI suffered one last weekend. Yes, it's just one thing that sets everything back, and I don't know if we've reached the point where we can truly say it's over and nothing else will happen.
Nobody knows, and I think the market is kind of , you know, holding on to that .
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 22 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。