NVDA 技术面看涨，动能正在上升，建议通过看涨价差策略把握上行潜力。
逐段跳播
Nvidia 即将达成又一个里程碑，似乎是一个成就接着一个成就。是的，我想先通过我的第一张图给你一些更宏观的背景，这是一张三年期的周线图。它能让你了解我们从哪里来，大约三年前该股在这里的交易价格低于每股 40 美元。
过去三年里，我们上涨了超过 425%。我提到过，该股就在昨天创下历史新高，今年迄今上涨约 28%。
Well, Nvidia is about to achieve another milestone; it seems like one achievement after another. Yes, I wanted to give you some broader context with Nvidia first through my first graphic, which is a three-year weekly chart.
It gives you an idea of where we came from, where the stock was trading here about 3 years ago, at less than $40 a share. Over the past three years, we have grown by more than 425%.
I mentioned the fact that the stock reached record highs just yesterday, up about 28% so far this year.
现在请记住，该股今年迄今已取得不错的涨幅，但这些涨幅只是最近才出现的，因为该股已回到历史高位，此前我们看到 190 至 210 之间的盘整区间持续了数月。那是在盛夏时节，当时我们无法推动该股强劲上行。
它一直交投于 50 日简单移动均线下方，而 200 日移动均线在过去九个月左右的时间里多次成为良好的支撑区域。
Now remember, the stock has made good gains so far this year, but these gains have only recently emerged as the stock has returned to record levels because we have seen a consolidation zone between 190 and 210 for several months.
This was in the middle of summer, when we were unable to get a strong upward push for this stock. It has been trading below its 50-day simple moving average, and the 200-day moving average has been a good support area repeatedly over the past nine months or so.
但我们已经重新回到此前突破的 210 水平上方，并且向上突破，现在我们已进入冲顶的竞赛。如果你看这里的动能，底部是相对强弱指数（RSI）。它目前约为 67。所以它略低于超买区域，但在这张基本的动能图上，动能仍呈上行趋势。
But we've moved back above the 210 level we broke through, and we've broken upwards, and now we're off in the race to the top. If you look at the momentum here, we have the Relative Strength Index (RSI) here at the bottom.
It is currently at around 67. So, it is slightly below the overbought zone, but the momentum is still trending upwards here in this basic momentum chart.
这里的支撑和阻力区域在哪里？既然我们已经突破 210 水平，正如我提到的，那曾是一个主要阻力区域。我们已经突破这些水平。现在你在这里，大约 221 附近，接近 50 日简单移动均线。
那可能是一个不错的落脚基准。这附近大约 226 处还有一些其他区域，但在当前水平之上我们并没有真正的参照。
What are the support and resistance zones here? Well, since we've broken through the 210 level, as I mentioned, that was a major resistance zone. We have broken through those levels.
Now you are here at around 221, around that 50-day simple moving average. That's probably a good baseline for landing. We have some other areas around here at about 226 as well, but we don't have real context above what we have now.
看起来该股将在盘前交易中于 241 附近开盘，这将是一个新的历史新高，Diane。随着这波上涨，我们看到隐含波动率水平下降。该公司要到 11 月 17 日才会公布财报，所以我们还有一些时间。
It looks like this stock will open at around 241 here in premarket trading, which would be a new record high, Diane. Well, with this rise, we saw implied volatility levels decline.
The company will not announce its earnings until November 17, so we have some time.
因此，我研究了一种策略，借此可以采取方向性操作，抵消部分成本，并利用期权市场在特定时间框架内的定价，为我提供该股可能走向何方的参照。
Therefore, I looked at a strategy whereby I could take a directional approach, offsetting part of the cost and using options market pricing over a specific time frame to give me context for what we think the stock will go towards.
如果我持乐观态度，这只是一次试水，我会选择 10 月 30 日的周度周期。距离到期还有 24 天，这给我 3.5 周的时间。我会买入执行价为 240 的看涨期权，这处于价内（In the money）范围。
这是策略中乐观的部分。反过来，我会卖出执行价为 255 的看涨期权。所以这是一笔看涨（Call vertical）期权买卖交易，价差为 15 美元。如果该股开盘在 241 附近，我将支付约 6 美元的权利金成本。
这将是我的风险，每个头寸 600 美元，如果我们回到 250 水平上方或达到 255 水平，可以扩大到 15 美元或 1500 美元。所以这笔交易有很好的风险回报设置。
If I'm feeling optimistic, this is just a trial run where I would choose the weekly October 30th cycle. So there are 24 days until expiry, which gives me 3.5 weeks in this center.
I will buy the call option at an execution price of 240, which is within the money range (In the money). This is the optimistic part of the strategy. Conversely, I will sell the call option at an execution price of 255.
So it is a bullish (Call vertical) option buy and sell transaction with a spread of $15. I would pay a debit cost of approximately $6 if the stock opened at around $241. This will be my risk, $600 per position that can expand to $15 or $1500 if we go back above the 250 level or reach the 255 level.
So you have a good risk and return setup in this trade.
如果你支付 6 美元作为成本，盈亏平衡点就在这里变为 246。这是我需要该股超越的水平。这比当前股价高出不到 2%，因为该股将在这里于 241 附近开盘。因此，我不需要很大的百分比波动就能越过这个盈亏平衡点。
If you pay $6 as a cost, the break-even point becomes 246 here. This is the level I need the stock to surpass. This is less than 2% above the current share price, as the stock will open at around 241 here.
Therefore, I don't need a large percentage movement to get past this break-even point.
如果你看像这样买入垂直方向性期权，为什么你选择卖出执行价为 255 的买入期权？10 月 30 日周度周期的期权市场定价约为 16 美元的上下波动。这基本上与 255 的执行价一致。
所以，如果你认为该股会上涨，在 Nvidia 上买入垂直方向性期权是一个非常好的风险回报设置。
If you look at buying vertical directional options like this, why did you choose the buy option with an execution price of 255 for sale? Well, the options market for the October 30 weekly session is pricing in a move up or down of about $16.
This is essentially in line with the execution price of 255. So, a very good risk and reward setup to buy a vertical directional option in Nvidia if you think the stock will go up.
如果你认为该股会下跌或走低，这不是正确的策略。不过，我认为关键之一是你距离到期还有 24 天，而且你只需要 1.8% 的波动就能越过盈亏平衡点。好。Nvidia 即将进入一个新的领域。
If you believe the stock will go down or decline, this is not the right strategy. However, I think one of the keys is that you still have 24 days until expiry and you only need a 1.8% movement to get past the breakeven point.
Good. Well, Nvidia is on the verge of entering a new territory here.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 26 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。