NVDA在成交量低迷下未能突破杯柄形态,并跌破50日均线;动能正在减弱,信号转红,市场环境不利,他已离场。他预计将测试208.70,若崩跌则看至200;只有在回补缺口的情况下才会反弹至222,但若纳斯达克抛售持续,则会进一步下跌。
逐段跳播
我们会稍微谈一谈市场领头羊 Nvidia,因为现在正在发生的情况是,抛售 Nvidia 股票也在导致市场其余部分一同下跌。
we will talk a little about the market leader Nvidia , because what is happening is that selling Nvidia shares is causing the rest of the market to decline as well.
让我给你们看看我们这边以及 Nvidia 正在发生什么。首先,我们在系统里进入个股择时,你可以看到……好,我们先从市场择时开始,因为市场择时能说明正在发生什么。市场昨天转为谨慎。
所以,他说:“各位,是时候把脚从油门上挪开了,或者能停就停下来,就像你在红灯或黄灯时做的那样。”因此,市场随之下行。接下来,我们进入股指,看看 Nvidia,可以看到我已经输入了 Nvidia 的数据,现在它显示红色信号。
它今天变红了。三天前,我切换到了谨慎模式。于是,她开始说:“各位,听好了。”顺便说一句,我持有一个金融中心,所以今天它一变红我就退出了。但谁知道我们是对是错,不过目前的趋势和概率都指向负面。
你可以看到动能正在减弱。我们今天得到一个红色指标,位于三个黄色指标之上,这反映出此前市场已经绿了一段时间,走势不错。那我们来看看正在发生什么。正如我所说,市场今天、昨天、前天都在抛售,本周基本上是持续如此,但你可以看看这个;我要放大一下。
其实,让我直接把它放大。这是我们的形态识别系统,所以我选好了形态,我想把它们放大,好让你看到整个屏幕。你可以看到,他形成了杯柄形态,一个带柄的杯子和一个成熟的底部,这意味着它仍在成熟中。
你知道,它一开始是新鲜的,然后逐渐成熟,而一旦某样东西成熟了,你就不想从店里买它了,因为你只有几天时间吃掉它。所以我们现在正处于那个成熟的底部。这确实是图表上的一个完美点位,但即便形态构筑得当,所有突破中仍有40%会失败,尤其是在市场不利的时候。
现在我们面对的市场既不算坏也不算好,只是不利,对吧?他并没有说:“这里有顺风给你。”你可以看到,在我们顶部的指标里,市场择时指标是黄色的,而个股指标就是这里的这个红点。这里发生的情况是,我们多次目睹 Netflix 股票试图突破。
这里是基于杯柄形态的买入区,而价格刚刚突破买入区却没能守住。如果你注意到了,并没有足够的成交量把它抬起来,而成交量是成功突破的关键要素。于是,我们之后看到了一次崩塌:三天的抛售,第四天在买入区之外继续抛售,然后在50日移动均线前两天出现了一次不错的反弹。
我们需要更多成交量才能确信它会守住50日移动均线。我们没等到。然后昨天我们看到了更多抛售成交量,股价收在50下方。今天出现了一个向下跳空缺口,跌破50,我们来看看这里的成交量。
这显示为高于50日平均成交量的2%。啊,这里。不,他没这么说。所以,是高于50日移动均线14%。那是昨天。我刚才是这么以为的。图上这里有一个缺口。缺口往往会回补,但股票必须先找到底部。
我认为它会先测试大约208.70这个位置。转折点就在208.93。然后这里207.02附近有一个非常接近的转折点。这个红色区域就是我所说的熔断区或卖出区。它现在位于卖出区。今天有很多事情对我不利,所以我退出了。
嗯,我不是说你也应该退出。如果你有更长的时间周期,那很好。但我注意到的是,这些股票正在下行,对吧?这只股票今天正在回升。这是好事。你往往会想要向下寻找一个更低的水平来测试。现在,我们已经跌破了50,现在位于其下方。
我们已经向下跳空到其下方。现在我们想触及这里的这个水平,看看会发生什么。如果它以不错的成交量做到这一点,它很可能会超过那个成交量,但如果它以低于1.32亿股的成交量做到这一点。
如果它以1.32亿股的成交量做到这一点,它就会继续下跌。如果它以更小的成交量做到这一点,则有可能反弹。这就是我解读这张图的方式。如果这里一切都崩塌了——我认为不会——我们会预期向200美元这一支撑区域移动,对吧?
市场可能会把它拉下去。比如,如果出现红色市场,就可能把它拉下去。
Let me show you what's happening with us and Nvidia. First, we move on in our system to stock timing, and you can see... Okay, let's start with market timing because market timing indicates what is going on.
The market turned cautious yesterday. So, he said, " Guys, it's time to take your foot off the gas pedal or stop if you can , just like you do at a red or yellow traffic light."
Therefore, the market trended downwards. Next , we move to the stock index and look at Nvidia, and we can see that I have entered Nvidia data, and it is now showing a red signal.
It turned red today. Three days ago, I switched to caution mode. So, she began to say, " Guys, listen up." Incidentally, I had a financial center, so I got out of it today as soon as this turned red.
But who knows if we will be right or wrong, but the trend and probabilities at the moment point to the negative side. You can see that the momentum is declining. We got one red indicator today above three yellow indicators, which reflects a nice upward trend as the market has been green for some time.
So let's take a look at what's going on. As I said, the market has been selling today, yesterday, the day before, and kind of continuously this week, but you can look at this; I'm going to zoom in.
Actually, let me go ahead and enlarge this. This is our pattern recognition system , so I have selected patterns and I want to enlarge them so that you can see the entire screen.
You can see that he created the cup pattern, a cup with a handle and a ripe base, which means that it is still ripening. As you know, it starts out fresh and then it ripens, and soon when something is ripe, you don't want to buy it from the store because you only have a few days to eat it.
So we are at that mature base. It is indeed a perfect point on the chart, but 40% of all breakouts fail even when properly formed, especially when the market is not favorable .
Now we have a market that is neither bad nor good, it's just unfavorable, isn't it? He is not saying, "Here are favorable winds for you." You can see here in our top indicator that the market timing indicator is yellow, and you can see that the stock indicator is this red dot here.
What happened here is that we witnessed many times Netflix stock attempted to break through. This is the buying zone here based on the cup and handle pattern, and the price has just broken out of the buying zone and was unable to hold.
If you noticed, there wasn't enough trading volume to lift it, and trading volume is a crucial element for a successful breakout. And so, we saw a collapse after that: three days of selling, a fourth day of selling outside the buying zone, and then a nice bounce two days before the 50-day moving average.
We needed more trading volume to be convinced that it would maintain the 50-day moving average. We didn't get that. Then yesterday we saw more selling volume and the stock closed below 50.
Today there was a downward gap below 50, let's take a look at the trading volume here. This indicates a ratio of 2% above the 50-day average trading volume . Ah, here. No , he doesn't say that.
So, it is 14% above the 50-day moving average. That was yesterday. I just thought so . There is a gap here on the graph. Gaps tend to fill, but the stock must first find a bottom.
I think it will first test the 208.70 level, approximately. Wherever the turning point was at 208.93. Then there is a turning point very close at 207.02 here. This red area is what I call the circuit breaker or sales area.
It is now located at the sales area. A lot of things went wrong for me today , so I got out of it. Um, I'm not saying you should get out of it . If you have a longer time horizon , that's great.
But what I've noticed is that the stocks are trending downwards, haven't they? This stock is recovering now today. This is good. You tend to want to go down and find a lower level to test.
Now, we've broken the 50 level. We're now below it. We have jumped down to below it . Now we want to get to that level here and see what happens. If he does so with a good trading volume, he will probably exceed that volume, but if he does so with a volume of less than 132 million shares.
If he does that at 132 million shares, it will continue to decline. If he does that with a smaller size, there is a possibility of a rebound. This is how I read this graph. If everything collapses here, which I don't think it will, we would expect a move towards the $200 level in this support zone , wouldn't we?
The market might pull it down. For example, if a red market appears, it might pull it down.
但今天许多科技股出现了大规模抛售,这就是 QQQ 和 Nvidia 指数下跌的原因。
But there was a massive sell-off in many technology stocks today, which is why QQQ and Nvidia indexes fell .
因此,如果你在投资“Nvidia”,请务必小心。即便你像我们一样使用备兑看涨期权,你仍然能获得收益,但如果你每周赚2%甚至每周1%,而股票一天就跌3%,那就会造成损失。你仍然在获得收益,但你需要保护自己免受下跌风险的影响。
我保护自己的方式是设置“熔断”,让卖方慢慢来。当买方回来、再次对这只股票感到兴奋时,我就会买入,对吧?我会在图表上合适的点位买入。我不会随便在哪个点位买入。我会等到合适的条件具备。
所以,Nvidia 目前的情况看起来不太好,所以我想至少提醒你,让你知道目前趋势是向下的。是的,如果这只股票能补上那个缺口,未来几天有可能反弹到50日移动均线上的222水平,但如果纳斯达克继续抛售,我认为这只股票会进一步下跌,这就是我对当前形势的解读。
Therefore, please be careful if you are investing in " Nvidia". Even if you use covered calls like we do, you still get income, but if you're making 2% a week or even 1% a week, and the stock drops 3% in one day, it hurts.
You are still receiving income, but you need to protect yourself from the risks of a downturn. The way I protect myself is by putting out " circuit breakers" and letting the sellers take their time.
When the buyers come back and get excited about the stock again, I'll buy, right? I will buy at the appropriate point on the chart. I will not buy at any random point. I will wait until the right conditions are in place.
So , things are not looking good at Nvidia right now, so I wanted to at least warn you and let you know that the trend is downward at the moment . Yes, there is a possibility of a bounce to the 222 level at the 50-day moving average in the next few days if the stock manages to close that gap, but if the selling continues in the Nasdaq, I think the stock will fall further, and that is my reading of the situation .
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Cash Flow Machine | Mark Yegge | Wealth Architect 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。