NVDA 下跌 10%，而营收和利润并未下滑，因此这次下跌是机会。CUDA 的锁定效应和盈利的 AI 收入使其属于顶级质量，而非投机。按明年盈利的 13.5 倍计算，它非常便宜；按 20 倍计算，它可能在明年第一季度末达到 315 美元，但 AI 资本开支削减或芯片竞争可能带来伤害。
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这就引出了第二只股票，也就是Nvidia。我知道这算不上什么奇怪的选择，Mark。但当我在这只股票估值变得有吸引力、股价已经下跌之后发布讨论它的视频时，人们是能赚到钱的。仅在过去几周里，Nvidia股价就从近期高点下跌了10%。
而它的营收并没有下降10%，利润也没有下降10%。事实上，公司仍在继续推进业务，并以很快的速度实现增长。机会正是在这种时候靠近。
This leads us to the second stock, which will be Nvidia. And I know that's not a strange choice, Mark. But when I post videos discussing this particular name after it has declined in attractive ratings, people make money.
In the past few weeks alone, Nvidia shares have fallen 10% from their recent highs. Their revenues did not decrease by 10%. Their profits did not decrease by 10%. In fact, the company continues to carry out its work and achieve growth at a rapid pace. This is when opportunities come closer.
我知道有人会说：“这只股票不是已经涨了很多吗？”答案确实是。但你不能仅凭过去的表现来判断一只股票或一家公司，尤其是像Nvidia这样在过去几年经历了极其惊人的高增长率、并且仍在不断交出极高数字的公司。
I know some will say, "Well, hasn't this stock already seen tremendous growth?" The answer to that would be yes. But you can't judge a stock or a company based solely on past performance, especially a company like Nvidia that has experienced insanely high growth rates in the past few years and continues to post extremely high numbers .
关于Nvidia最大的误解之一，是认为它只是一家图形处理器（GPU）制造商。这已经不能准确描述这家公司业务的性质了。Nvidia已经打造出完整的人工智能生态系统和完整的计算平台，包括先进的加速器、网络技术、软件、系统以及面向开发者的工具。
它最大的竞争优势之一是其专有的CUDA软件系统。这个系统让开发者和公司更容易用Nvidia的技术构建自己的应用。一旦公司投入了巨大的资源、围绕这个特定平台搭建了基础设施，再切换到另一个平台就会变得极其困难和复杂。
One of the biggest misconceptions about Nvidia is that it's just a graphics processing unit (GPU) manufacturer. This is no longer an accurate description of the nature of the company's work.
Nvidia has developed a complete artificial intelligence ecosystem and a complete computing platform that includes advanced accelerators, networking technologies, software, systems, and tools for developers.
One of its biggest competitive advantages is its proprietary CUDA software system. This system makes it easier for developers and companies to build their applications using Nvidia technologies.
Once companies have invested huge resources and built their infrastructure around that particular platform, switching to another platform becomes extremely difficult and complicated.
不过，我认为即便AI计算市场的竞争加剧，Nvidia仍将是主要参与者。这也是我把Nvidia与一些更具投机性的AI投资区别看待的最重要原因之一。很多公司都在承诺未来能从人工智能中获得回报。
而Nvidia今天就已经在从人工智能中产生可观的利润和营收。仅仅向投资者承诺它最终可能会盈利是不够的。市场对它技术的需求已经转化为可观的营收和利润。
However , I believe that Nvidia will remain a major player even as competition in the AI computing market intensifies . This is one of the biggest reasons why I view Nvidia differently from some of the more speculative AI investments.
Many companies are promising returns from artificial intelligence in the future. As for Nvidia , it is generating significant profits and revenues from artificial intelligence today.
It is not enough to simply promise investors that it may eventually become profitable . The demand for its technology has already translated into significant revenues and profits.
Elon Musk甚至表示，SpaceX只购买Nvidia的芯片，并且会继续这样做。
Elon Musk even stated that SpaceX exclusively buys Nvidia chips and will continue to do so.
但在这里我必须谨慎。我不认为Nvidia能免受围绕AI基础设施支出的担忧影响。我也不希望这成为唯一的结论。一些购买AI计算设备的公司投入了巨额资本，而投资者对这些投资的回报越来越质疑。
如果客户开始放缓支出，最终可能会影响Nvidia的产品。还有竞争的问题。如前所述，专用AI芯片在某些工作负载中占据的份额越来越大，这可能影响整个加速器市场的经济性。
But here, I must be careful. I don't think Nvidia is immune to the concerns surrounding spending on AI infrastructure. I don't want this to be the only conclusion. Some companies that purchase AI computing equipment invest huge amounts of capital, and investors are increasingly questioning the return on those investments.
If customers start slowing down their spending, it could eventually affect Nvidia products. There is also the issue of competition. As mentioned, dedicated AI chips are capturing an increasing share of certain workloads, and this could impact the economics of the broader accelerator market.
但我要告诉你，Nvidia的估值并不值得担忧。看这里的Fast Graphs，你可以看到Nvidia股票的市盈率是明年盈利的13.5倍，在我看来这便宜得离谱。假设它至少值20倍，这可能把Nvidia股价推到每股315美元，我认为它可能在明年第一季度末达到这个水平。
But I will tell you that what is not a cause for concern is the rating of Nvidia. Looking here at Fast Graphs , you can see that Nvidia stock is trading at 13.5 times next year's earnings, which is insanely cheap to me .
Let's say it's worth at least 20 times more. This could push Nvidia's stock up to $315 per share, and I think it could reach that by the end of the first quarter of next year.
我不是说Nvidia已经触底，但我认为Nvidia仍是AI生态系统中质量最高的公司之一。如果市场继续创造出以更有吸引力的估值积累股票的机会，这是一家我愿意继续加仓到投资组合中的公司。
因为对AI计算的长期需求可能依然很高，即便股市在这过程中会因为一批AI股票而经历大幅波动。但再说一次，我们谈的是质量。这是你能找到的质量最高的公司之一。它们的财务健康评分为84，背后是极少的债务和强劲的现金流。
Now, I'm not saying that Nvidia has hit rock bottom, but I think Nvidia remains one of the highest quality companies in the AI ecosystem . If the market continues to create opportunities to accumulate stocks with more attractive valuations , it is a company I would want to continue adding to my portfolio.
Because the long-term demand for AI computing may remain high, even if the stock market experiences significant volatility along the way for a number of AI stocks . But again , we're talking about quality.
This is one of the highest quality companies you will find. They have a financial health score of 84, supported by very little debt and strong cash flows.
这并不一定意味着这些客户会停止从Nvidia购买图形处理器。
this does not necessarily mean that these customers will stop buying graphics processing units from Nvidia.
Nvidia为人工智能提供先进的计算平台，同时持有这三家公司并不一定意味着你就分散了风险，因为这三家公司在同一个AI基础设施基本投资周期上都有很大的敞口。如果人工智能的资本支出继续增长，这些公司都会表现良好，都会受益。
但如果支出大幅放缓——这是关键词——这三家公司可能会面临一些压力。
Nvidia provides advanced computing platforms for artificial intelligence, Owning all three does not necessarily mean you are diversified, because all three companies have significant exposure to the same basic investment cycle in AI infrastructure.
If capital expenditures for artificial intelligence continue to grow, these companies will perform well. They will all benefit. But if spending slows down significantly, and that is the key word, the three companies could face some pressure.
目前有三家公司特别引起我的兴趣：Vertiv、Nvidia和Broadcom。
Currently, there are three companies that are of particular interest to me: Vertiv, Nvidia , and Broadcom.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。