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Nvidia 是人形机器人领域的最佳股票,因为它拥有他人赖以建立业务的平台,说话者将其作为 25% 的核心持仓;按约 17 倍远期市盈率计算,它比标普 500 的 19 倍远期市盈率更便宜。

看涨他说的是几年内
《NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Left Me SPEECHLESS at GTC Berlin》
Ticker Symbol: YOU发布 2026-10-25 · 21 段内容
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而且在 Nvidia 最近的发布会之后,我确信 AI 革命远未结束。所以,让我解释一下刚刚发生了什么,以及我如何投资这个领域。

And after Nvidia’s recent keynote, I’m sure the AI revolution is far from over . So, let me explain what just happened and how I invest in this field.

如果只看 Nvidia 的财务数据,它是一家数据中心公司。上个季度,Nvidia 实现了962亿美元的收入,其中890亿美元来自数据中心。这占比超过92%。其他所有业务,从电脑和游戏主机到机器人和汽车,合计占比不到8%。

If you only look at Nvidia's financial data, it's a data center company. In the last quarter, Nvidia generated $96.2 billion in revenue, of which $89 billion came from data centers.

This represents more than 92%. Everything else, from computers and gaming consoles to robots and cars, accounted for less than 8%.

上周,Nvidia 首席执行官 Jensen Huang 在柏林 GTC 大会上发表了主题演讲,大多数头条新闻都围绕数据中心。但我觉得最令人兴奋的部分,几乎都是其他所有业务。

Last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang gave a keynote address at the GTC conference in Berlin, and most of the headlines were about data centers. But the parts I found most exciting were almost everything else.

Jensen 在主题演讲中表示,一座1吉瓦的 AI 工厂造价约为500亿美元,而 Nvidia 的博客给出的价格更高,约为600亿美元。

In his keynote address, Jensen said that a 1-gigawatt AI factory would cost around $50 billion, while Nvidia's blog puts the price at a higher level, around $60 billion.

这笔钱只有一部分流向 Nvidia。其余部分用于土地、建筑、能源和冷却等。这正是新的 DSX 机柜系统试图解决的问题。每个单元包含七个 Vera Robin 芯片机柜。这意味着504个图形处理器和约25 exaflops 的 AI 算力,全部采用液冷,并由超过10英里的线缆连接。

通常需要专门的数据中心团队花几个月时间在现场拆箱、安装、连接和测试。然而,DSX 单元可以在工厂建造和测试,然后以即插即用的方式直接发货。Nvidia 表示,这将部署时间从几个月缩短到几周,首批 DSX 单元计划于明年初发货。

Only a portion of this money goes to Nvidia. The remainder is paid for things like land, buildings, energy, and cooling. This is the problem that the new DSX pod system is trying to solve.

Each unit contains seven vaults of Vera Robin chips. This means 504 graphics processing units and about 25 exaflops of AI computing, all liquid-cooled and connected by more than 10 miles of cables.

It usually takes a dedicated data center crew months to unpack, install, connect, and test it on-site. However, DSX units can be built and tested at the factory and then shipped ready to be plugged and played right out.

Nvidia says this reduces deployment times from months to weeks, and the first DSX units are scheduled to ship early next year.

Nvidia 希望把这项工作从工厂车间转移到机器人生命周期的早期阶段。Jensen 说,每个机器人实际上需要三台计算机才能运行。一台在数据中心训练其人工智能,第二台用于运行“数字孪生”,即对其环境的物理精确模拟,机器人可以在其中学习和练习技能,第三台则在机器人本体内部。

Nvidia wants to move that work away from the factory floor and into an early stage of the robot's lifecycle. Jensen says that each robot actually needs three computers to operate.

One is in the data center to train its artificial intelligence, the second is to operate a "digital twin," which is a physically accurate simulation of its environment where it can learn and practice skills, and the third is inside the robot itself.

但借助 AI RAN,它作为软件运行在 Nvidia 的加速计算机上,因此同一台机器可以同时处理我们的通话和 AI 工作负载。本月,Nvidia、T-Mobile 和 Nokia 在华盛顿一个商业蜂窝站点,在现网中完成了全球首次 AI RAN 通话。

But with AI RAN, it runs as software on Nvidia's accelerated computers, so the same machine can handle our calls and AI workloads simultaneously . This month, Nvidia, T-Mobile and Nokia completed the world's first AI RAN call on a live network at a commercial cellular site in Washington.

今年1月我在 CES 时,Nvidia 发布了“Alpaca Mayo”模型,这是一系列开源 AI 模型,可以观看车载摄像头视频,决定行驶方向,并在驾驶过程中解释其决策原因。汽车制造商使用“Alpaca Mayo”来训练更小型的自动驾驶汽车原型,这些原型实际运行在他们的车辆中。

When I was at CES last January, Nvidia released the “Alpaca Mayo” model, a family of open-source AI models that watch video from car cameras, decide where to go, and explain the reasons for its decisions while driving.

Automakers use "Alpaca Mayo" to train smaller prototypes of the self-driving cars that actually operate in their vehicles.

在 Nvidia GTC 大会上乘坐了搭载“Alpaca Mayo”系统的 Mercedes 并亲眼看到之后,我同意 Jensen 的说法,即自动驾驶汽车的“ChatGPT”时刻已经到来。

After riding in a Mercedes powered by the " Alpaca Mayo" system at the Nvidia GTC conference and seeing it for myself, I agree with Jensen when he says that the "ChatGPT" moment for self-driving cars has arrived.

当时,Nvidia 和 Uber 还宣布了推出自动驾驶出租车的计划,这些车辆由 Nvidia 的自动驾驶系统和 Uber 的客运网络提供支持,将于2027年上半年在洛杉矶和旧金山开始运营,并在2028年前扩展到全球28个城市提供无人驾驶服务。

At that time, Nvidia and Uber also announced plans to launch self-driving taxis powered by Nvidia's Autonomous Driving System and Uber's passenger transport network, starting in Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027, and expanding to offer driverless services in 28 cities around the world by 2028.

BYD、Geely、Isuzu 和 Nissan 都在致力于制造使用 Hyperion 平台、可直接作为自动驾驶出租车运营的车辆。这是 Nvidia 的完整方案,包含传感器、计算机和安全软件,汽车制造商可以在此基础上让汽车实现自动驾驶。

BYD, Geely, Isuzu, and Nissan are all working on manufacturing vehicles that are ready to operate as self-driving taxis using the Hyperion platform. It is Nvidia’s complete package that includes sensors, computers and safety software, which automakers can build on to make cars drive themselves.

Volvo、Mercedes 和 Jaguar Land Rover 也加入进来,以兼容“Hyperion”平台。这大约相当于去年所有新车销量的另外3%。正如 Jensen 所说,“自动驾驶出租车是机器人和物理人工智能的首个大规模商业应用。”

Nvidia 押注几乎所有汽车制造商都会希望依赖一个通用平台,而不是必须自行开发和测试。

Volvo, Mercedes and Jaguar Land Rover also joined to be compatible with the "Hyperion" platform. This represents about another 3% of all new cars sold last year. As Jensen said, "Self-driving taxis are the first large-scale commercial application of robotics and physical artificial intelligence."

Nvidia is betting that almost every car manufacturer will want to rely on a common platform rather than having to develop and test its own.

在柏林 GTC 大会上,Jensen 表示人形机器人很可能会成为最普及的机器人类型,这很合理,因为现代世界是为人类建造的、由人类的双手建造的,所以人形机器人在其中工作会更容易。

During the GTC conference in Berlin , Jensen said that humanoid robots will likely be the most widespread type of robot, and this makes sense , because the modern world was built for humans and by human hands, so humanoid robots will find it easier to work in it.

为了加快这一领域的发展步伐,Nvidia 与一家名为 Agile Robots 的德国公司合作设计了一款参考机器人,由该公司制造和销售。它名为“Agile 1SN”。它长约4.5英尺,有31个独立关节,由 Jetson Thor 计算机和 Nvidia 的 Groot 机器人 AI 模型驱动。

Jetson Thor 是一台放置在机器人内部的小型计算机,采用与 Nvidia 数据中心图形处理器所用 Blackwell 芯片相同的设计。这样一来,机器人可以在本地运行其人工智能,而不需要联网并等待连接云端。

“Groot”是 Nvidia 专为人形机器人设计的开源原型系列。可以把它看作一个预训练的机器人大脑,公司可以随后调整它以适应自己的机器人和特定任务。Agile 1 SN 将于明年初以组装完成、可直接使用的状态发货,让研究人员节省数月甚至数年从头构建自己机器人的时间。

To accelerate the pace of this sector, Nvidia designed a reference robot in collaboration with a German company called Agile Robots, which manufactures and sells it. It is called "Agile 1SN ".

It is about 4.5 feet long , has 31 independent joints, and is powered by the Jetson Thor computer and Nvidia's Groot robotic AI models. Jetson Thor is a small computer that is placed inside the robot, and is built on the same design as the Blackwell chip used in Nvidia's data center graphics processing units .

In this way , the robot can run its artificial intelligence locally instead of needing the internet and waiting for it to connect to the cloud. "Groot" is Nvidia's family of open-source prototypes specifically designed for humanoid robots.

Think of it as a pre-trained robot brain that companies can then adjust to suit their robots and their specific tasks. The Agile 1 SN will ship early next year assembled and ready to go , allowing researchers to save months or even years of building their own robots from scratch.

我认为机器人领域也会发生同样的情况,最大的赢家可能并不是自己制造机器人的那家公司。像 Uber、Airbnb 和 Nvidia 这样的公司,之所以能胜出,是因为它们掌握了所有人都在连接的平台。

这就是为什么我认为 Nvidia 实际上是人形机器人领域最好的股票。大多数从事这一领域的公司仍未上市,而已经有几家大公司在基于 Nvidia 的 Jetson Thor 平台进行开发,包括 Boston Dynamics、Figure 和 Agility Robotics。1X 和 OpenAI 也正在对其进行评估。

I think the same thing will happen in the field of robotics, where the biggest winner may not be the one who makes the robots himself. Companies like Uber, Airbnb and Nvidia are winning by owning the platform that everyone connects to.

That's why I think Nvidia is actually the best stock for humanoid robots. Most of the companies working on it are still private, and several large companies are already building on Nvidia's Jetson Thor platform, including Boston Dynamics, Figure, and Agility Robotics. It is also being evaluated by 1X and OpenAI.

Jetson Thor 的 AI 算力最高可达 Nvidia 上一代机器人芯片 Jetson Orin 的 7.5 倍,同时能效高出 3.5 倍,而开发套件起价仅为 3,500 美元。这意味着进入该平台的门槛非常低。

Jetson Thor delivers up to 7.5 times the AI computing power of Nvidia’s previous robotics chip, the Jetson Orin, while being 3.5 times more energy efficient, and the development kit starts at just $3,500 .

This means that the barrier to entry to the platform is very low.

Nvidia 股票本身的市盈率约为未来盈利的 17 倍,比整个标普 500 指数还便宜。如今 Nvidia 超过 92% 的收入仍然来自数据中心,而钱主要就在那里。

Nvidia's stock itself trades at about 17 times forward earnings, which is cheaper than the S&P 500 index as a whole. More than 92% of Nvidia's revenue still comes from data centers today, and that's where most of the money is,

对于未来的市场,我更希望把 Uber 看作自动驾驶出租车所依赖的网络,把 Nvidia 看作机器人用于实时仿真、训练和推理的平台。

For future markets, I would prefer to have Uber as the network that self-driving taxis rely on , and Nvidia as the platform that robots will use for simulation, training, and inference in real time.

如果我必须把钱分给它们,我会把 Nvidia 作为主要持仓,占 25%,因为它拥有其他人都在其上建立业务的生态系统。

If I had to divide my money between them, I would keep Nvidia as my primary focus at 25%, because it owns the ecosystems that everyone else builds their businesses on.

Nokia、Uber 和 Nvidia 的股价都低于标普 500 指数 19 倍的远期市盈率。

Shares of Nokia, Uber, and Nvidia are all trading below the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.

这六家公司中有五家还将在未来几周公布财报。这些公司每一家都与 Nvidia 有直接联系,并且拥有所有人都依赖的一层基础设施。所以,哪家 AI 实验室训练出最好的模型、谁的机器人先下线、哪家汽车制造商造出最好的自动驾驶出租车,都不重要。

这些公司都还在盈利,这使它们成为无需运气就能致富的绝佳方式。

Five of these six companies will also be reporting earnings in the next few weeks. Each of these companies also has a direct connection to Nvidia, and possesses a layer of infrastructure that everyone relies on.

So it doesn't matter which AI lab trains the best model, whose robots come off the assembly line first, or which car manufacturer builds the best self- driving taxi. All of these companies are still making profits, making them a great way to get rich without needing luck.

跨洋听风