$NVDA · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-26
NVDA 在其选股中排名第一:股价 213 美元,较其 345 美元的价值估计低 62%,远期市盈率 13.4 倍,大致是他买过的最便宜水平。他认为 50% 的 EPS 增长是现实的,并预计 AI 支出将使其业绩至少到 2028 年保持高位,不过 109% 的 ROIC 不太可能长期持续。
逐段跳播
今天我想比较一下 Nvidia 和 MetaPlatforms,来回答我认为哪一只是目前第二值得买入的股票。过去几个月里,这两只股票一直占据我排行榜的第一和第二位。我非常看好这两家公司。
这两家公司的股票我都持有。它们是我投资组合中仅次于 Netflix 的两大重仓,而 Netflix 是我投资组合中最大的重仓。
Today I wanted to compare Nvidia and MetaPlatforms to answer which one I think is the second best stock to buy right now. These two stocks have occupied the first and second positions in my rankings over the past few months.
I am very optimistic about these two companies. I own shares in both of them. They are two of the biggest centers in my portfolio after Netflix , which is the biggest center in my portfolio.
我想先比较一下 Nvidia 和 MetaPlatforms 未来每股收益的前景。从这张图里可以看到 Nvidia 未来几年的盈利增长预测,而且自 2023 年以来这些预测已大幅上调。
I wanted to start by comparing the future prospects for earnings per share for both Nvidia and MetaPlatforms. You can see Nvidia's earnings growth projections for the next few years in this chart, and they have increased significantly since 2023.
那大约是在 2022 年底 ChatGPT 发布的时候,市场很快意识到 Nvidia 将成为这一新发展的受益者。
That was around the time of ChatGPT's launch in late 2022, and the market quickly realized that Nvidia would be the beneficiary of this new development.
它对未来几年每股收益的预期已从 2023 年时的约 20%,上升到如今 Nvidia 未来每股收益增长高达 50%。我认为这是一个现实的数字。
Its earnings per share prospects have risen from around 20% in 2023 for the coming years, to today as high as 50% for Nvidia’s future earnings per share growth. I believe this is a realistic figure.
因此,Meta、Alphabet、Amazon 等公司的这些投资,对 Nvidia 股票的投资者来说,在未来几年将是个好消息。
Therefore, those investments from Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and others will be great news for Nvidia stock investors over the next few years.
这一点对 Meta 来说比对 Nvidia 更重要。
This is more important for Meta than it is for Nvidia.
至于 Nvidia,它采用的是轻资产业务模式。要知道,它并不承担产品的任何制造环节。它负责设计、研发,然后把制造外包给 TSMC(台积电)以及与其合作的其他供应商。
As for Nvidia, it operates on an asset-light business model. Remember that it does not carry out any of the manufacturing processes for its products. It handles the design, research and development, and then contracts the manufacturing to TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and other suppliers it deals with.
因此,它的经营性现金流没那么重要,不过仍然重要,因为 Nvidia 会将这部分现金流用于战略目的。有些投资者对这类安排持怀疑态度,也就是循环融资,不是吗?Nvidia 利用其极其强劲的资产负债表和强大的现金流创造能力,为客户提供更优惠的条件,从而让更多销售比原本更早发生,且规模比正常情况下更大。
因此,Nvidia 对其许多客户和供应商进行了多项股权投资,以缓解行业层面的供应限制,并弥合投入这些数据中心和大规模语言模型开发的巨额资本投资,与这些投资产生现金流、把钱返还给付出巨额资金的公司所需时间之间的缺口。
Therefore, its cash flow from operations is less important, although it is still important because Nvidia uses this cash flow for strategic purposes. There are some investors who are skeptical of those arrangements, i.e., circular financing, aren't there?
Nvidia uses its extremely strong balance sheet and great ability to generate cash flow to offer better terms to its customers to facilitate more sales earlier than would otherwise happen , and in larger quantities than would happen under normal circumstances.
Therefore, Nvidia has made several equity investments in many of its customers and suppliers in order to ease supply constraints at the industry level, and bridge the gap between the huge capital investments going into these data centers and large-scale language model development , and the time it takes for these investments to generate cash flow that returns money to the companies that pay huge sums.
Nvidia 还拥有高达 44% 的经营性现金流与销售额之比。Nvidia 的经营性现金流与销售额之比从 2017 年的 20% 上升,
Nvidia also boasts a strong operating cash flow to sales ratio of 44%. Nvidia's operating cash flow to sales ratio rose from 20% in 2017,
再说一次,我认为这个指标对 Meta 来说比对 Nvidia 更重要,因为 Meta 在其业务运营方面投入的资本远多于 Nvidia。
Again, I think this metric is more important for Meta than for Nvidia because Meta invests much more capital in the operations side of its business than Nvidia does.
Nvidia 的轻资产业务模式使公司实现了创纪录的投入资本回报率。以至于我认为 109% 的水平不可持续,而这一水平已经保持在 100% 以上一年半多一点了。所以,这种表现每多持续一个季度都算是额外收获,但我不认为 Nvidia 能长期维持这样的水平。
Nvidia's asset- light business model has allowed the company to achieve record levels of return on invested capital. To the point that I don't think it's sustainable at 109%, and it has remained above 100% for a little over a year and a half now.
So any additional quarter of this kind of performance is a bonus , but I don't expect Nvidia to maintain these levels for a long period of time.
不过,这轮 AI 升级周期很可能至少还会持续两年,直到 2028 年。也许甚至到 2029 年,但我们还不知道。现在就开始推测 2029 年会发生什么,那属于猜测。但我从我所关注的所有不同公司以及我所观察的宏观经济指标中获得了足够的数据,可以判断对人工智能的投资将一直保持高位直到 2028 年。
因此,至少就这个指标以及其他指标而言,Nvidia 的表现很可能至少会保持高位直到 2028 年。
However, this AI upgrade cycle is likely to continue for at least another two years until 2028. Perhaps even until 2029, but we don't know yet. It would be speculative to start looking at what will happen in 2029.
But I have enough data from all the different companies I follow and the macroeconomic indicators I look at that investments in artificial intelligence will remain high until 2028.
Therefore, it is likely that Nvidia's performance in this metric at least, and others, will remain high until at least 2028.
但尽管我非常看好 Meta,并给出这样的评级,Nvidia 还要更便宜。其股价对应的预期市盈率为 13.4。这大致是我能买入 Nvidia 股票以来最便宜的价格。
But as much as I love Meta with this rating, Nvidia is even cheaper. Its shares are trading at a forward-to-earnings price of 13.4. This is roughly the cheapest price at which I have ever been able to buy Nvidia shares.
做完所有这些计算后,我得出 Nvidia 每股价值 345 美元,而它目前股价为 213 美元。所以在我看来,按当前市场价格,它被低估了 62%。
After doing all these calculations, I arrived at a value of $345 per share for Nvidia, which is currently trading at $213. So, it seems to me that it is undervalued by 62% at the current market price .
因此,这些都是优秀的公司。我对两家都持乐观态度。两家公司的股票我都持有。我有兴趣从这两家公司买入更多。但如果今天必须在我评估完 Meta 的业绩后排出一二名,我会说 Meta Platforms 在我的排行榜上排第二,Nvidia 排第一。
Therefore, these are excellent companies. I am optimistic about both. I own both of them. I am interested in buying more from these two companies. But if I had to choose first and second place today, after evaluating Meta's results, I would say that Meta Platforms is second and Nvidia is first in my rankings.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 25 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。