$NVDA · The Motley Fool · 2026-10-26
NVDA在回调后具有吸引力:远期市盈率约19-20倍,预计今年增长超过90%、下一财年至少增长70%,收入将接近4000亿美元,随着供应限制缓解可能更高。鉴于其自由现金流、回购、分红和领先的AI市场份额,说话者认为它非常便宜,但同时质疑一家5万亿美元的公司能否在五年后继续保持增长并维持利润率。
逐段跳播
我认为,第一只因为近期回调而处于有意思的价位的股票是 Nvidia。我的意思是,这仍然是一家市值5万亿美元的公司,这挺让人意外的,不是吗,Neil?
the first stock I think is at interesting levels with the recent pullback is Nvidia. I mean, this is still a $5 trillion company, which is a surprise, isn't it, Neil?
我们已经听 Jensen 说过,他们在下一个财年可以实现超过70%的同比增长。这将使他们的营收接近4000亿美元,这简直太疯狂了。他们表示,如果他们能够改善或扩大供应链,这个数字可能会高得多。
他们没能增长的唯一原因就是供应受限的问题。显然,当你处理这种量级的数字时,你需要为供应链本身建设新的工厂和新的基础设施。所以,最近我们在柏林举行了 GTC 大会。Nvidia 表示正在与更多供应商合作以提高产能。
因此,我认为70%这个数字会略高一些。对于一家远期市盈率约为19或20倍的公司,而对于一个非常看好人工智能、并相信这个周期会比市场预期持续得久得多的人来说,我认为 Nvidia 是当前估值具有吸引力的股票之一。
We have already heard from Jensen that in the next fiscal year they can achieve growth of more than 70% year-on-year. This will bring their revenue close to $400 billion, which is insane.
They stated that if they were able to improve or expand their supply chain, this figure could be much higher. The only reason they are not growing is simply problems with supply constraints.
Obviously, when you work with these kinds of numbers, you need to build new factories and new infrastructure for the supply chain itself. So, recently we had the GTC conference in Berlin.
Nvidia stated that it is working with more suppliers to increase production capacity. Therefore, I think the 70% figure will be slightly higher. With a company trading at forward earnings ratios of around 19 or 20 times, and for someone who is very optimistic about artificial intelligence and believes this cycle will last much longer than the market expects, I think Nvidia is one of those stocks that has attractive valuations right now.
另外,SpaceX 独家使用 Nvidia 图形处理器这一事实意味着,SpaceX 花的任何钱,你知道其中大部分都会只流向一个特定的玩家。我们目前已经看到了一些很大的数字。这些数字是否真实还需要时间来验证,但即使它大约是那5000亿美元的50%,对 Nvidia 来说,仅凭这一个客户,这也仍然是一笔可观的金额。
Also, the fact that SpaceX exclusively uses Nvidia graphics processing units means that any money SpaceX spends, you know that the majority of it will go to only one specific player.
We've already got some big numbers by now. Whether these figures are real or not is still a matter of time, but even if it's roughly 50% of that $500 billion, it's still a good amount going to Nvidia for one specific name.
现在,我同意你的看法,Nvidia 目前非常便宜。我的意思是,这是一家今年仍预计增长超过90%或接近90%的公司。明年他们设定了至少70%的增长目标,根据反馈他们可能会超过这个目标,也许他们会的。
他们并不是那种只有100亿美元营收的公司。他们已经在创造数千亿美元的营收。他们还预计将产生数千亿美元的自由现金流。所以,现在的问题是,它会在很长一段时间内保持便宜吗?因为市场根本不介意把它维持在5万亿美元的水平。
要推动一只5万亿美元的股票,你需要大量的买盘才能把它推到6万亿或7万亿美元甚至更高。但是等等,与此同时,这是一家非常赚钱的公司,在增加股息、增加股票回购,而且从整个 AI 领域的市场份额来看,它仍然是第一名。
因此,它非常有吸引力。我理解为什么它是这个星球上最大的公司,因为它就是能产生这么多营收,而且以这样的体量还能像一家小型初创公司一样持续增长,这真的很了不起。我认为市场在问的最大问题是:这在可预见的未来可持续吗?
他们能在五年后维持这样的利润率水平吗?也许能,也许不能。即使略低一些,但美元金额会大得多,它仍然会是一只非常便宜的股票。另外,他们现在确保开源模型更受欢迎,这对 Nvidia 以及每一个提供 Nvidia 图形处理器的云技术来说都将是非常积极的事情。
因为假设 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 无法履行他们的全部承诺,对算力的需求和对人工智能的需求也不会消失。它只会从一个玩家转移到另一个玩家。如果另一方,也就是这里的 Nvidia,以及运行在 Nvidia 硬件和软件上的开源模型是赢家,那么 Nvidia 当然不会很快消失。
我们甚至还没谈到自动驾驶汽车、机器人以及未来两年将要发生的一切。
Now, I agree with you that Nvidia is very cheap at the moment. I mean, it's a company that is still expected to grow by more than 90% or close to it this year. Next year they set a minimum of 70%, which they may exceed based on feedback, and perhaps they will.
It's not as if they're only making $10 billion in revenue. They are already generating hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. They are also expected to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in free cash flow.
So, the question now is, will it remain cheap for a long period of time? Because the market simply doesn't mind keeping it at the $5 trillion level. dollar. To move a $5 trillion stock, you would need a lot of buying activity to raise it to $6 or $7 trillion or more.
But hold on, in the meantime, this is a very profitable company, increasing dividends, increasing share buybacks, and it's still number one when you look at market share in the entire AI field.
Therefore, it is very attractive. I understand why it's the biggest company on the planet, because it simply generates so much revenue, and to continue growing at this size as if it were a small startup is truly amazing.
I think the biggest question the market is asking is: Can this be sustainable in the foreseeable future? Can they maintain this level of profit margins five years from now? Maybe yes, maybe no. Even if it were slightly less, but the dollar amount would be much larger, it would still be a very cheap name.
Also, the fact that they are now ensuring the increased popularity of open-source models will be a very positive thing for Nvidia and for every cloud technology that provides Nvidia's graphics processing units.
Because assuming that OpenAI and Anthropic are unable to fulfill all of their commitments, the need for computing and the need for artificial intelligence will not disappear. It will only transfer from one player to another.
If the other side, which in this case is Nvidia, and the open model that runs on Nvidia's hardware and software, are the winners, then Nvidia certainly won't disappear anytime soon.
We're not even talking about self-driving vehicles, robots, and everything that's going to happen over the next two years.
在柏林 GTC 大会期间,Nvidia 发布了一个真正了不起的东西,Neo。它被称为 DGX Pod。他们以前也有过类似的系统,但这是我们第一次看到类似集装箱的东西,里面实际上包含了一套预建的 Vera Rubin 系统解决方案。
所以,你可以来,他们说他们可以把数据中心建成后获得算力所需的时间从几个月缩短到仅仅14天。这太疯狂了。
During the GTC conference in Berlin, Nvidia launched something truly remarkable, Neo. It was called the DGX Pod. They have had systems like this before, but this is the first time we have seen something resembling a shipping container that actually contains a pre-built Vera Rubin system solution inside it.
So, you can come, and they said they can reduce the time needed to get computing power after the data center is built from a few months to just 14 days. This is crazy.
如果你真的想要我们的钱,我觉得跟 Nvidia 打交道更让我放心。因为我知道营收会开始更快地收回来,因此你也能更快地把钱还给我。
If you really want our money, I feel more comfortable dealing with Nvidia." "Because I know that the revenue will start to be collected much faster, and therefore you will be able to pay me back much faster as well."
但我认为这也是为什么我们看到 Nvidia 在玩循环融资的游戏。
But I think that's also why we're seeing Nvidia playing the circular financing game.
蓝图,正如我提到 DX X 时所说的,帮助你建设数据中心。最近在柏林 GTC 大会上,我们看到了类似 DGX-Pod 的东西。这提高了成功的几率,并降低了许多实施风险。
blueprints, as I mentioned regarding DX X, to help you build data centers. And recently at the GTC conference in Berlin, we saw something resembling a DGX-Pod. This increases the chances of success and reduces many of the implementation risks.
现在,Nvidia 就是那个会牵着你的手的人。我相信,随着实施风险略有降低,任何新数据中心都有更大的成功机会、更大的运营机会,并且能更快地开始产生营收。
Now, Nvidia is the one who will take your hand. I believe that with the implementation risks reduced slightly, any new data center has a greater chance of success , a greater chance of operation, and a much faster start generating revenue.
观察点
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 14 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。