$NVDA · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-10-27
Nvidia 是我最看好的 AI 标的：按今年盈利计为 23.5 倍，而未来两个财年预期每股收益增长 130%，即按前瞻盈利计为 10 倍，因此并不贵；我预期未来一年 Nvidia 从今天起的涨幅百分比将高于 AMD，不过我也可能判断错误。
逐段跳播
我们看到了大量关于 AI 领域投资动态的消息，来自 Meta、来自 Oracle、来自 Nvidia、来自 AMD。
We got so many updates on investments happening in the AI world from Meta, from Oracle, from Nvidia, from AMD.
也许人们会意识到，这些钱实际上都流向了 Nvidia。
Maybe people are going to realize that all this money actually flows to Nvidia,
明年会推出不少类似 Vera Rubin 机架解决方案，还有 Nvidia 在 NDL72 上要做什么。光是 SpaceX 一家就想锁定明年 Vera Rubin 大约 20% 到 30% 的产能，不，是 20%。
这只是一家。所以，这就像，我忘了，根据分析师的估算，他们大概能拿到 20% 左右，而他们真正想要的是接近 25% 或 30%。但因为 Jensen 和 Nvidia 不可能把一切都给一家，这在我看来恰恰说明，明年、2027 年我们将处在一个算力极度受限的市场，而且我相信 2028 年还会继续看到这种情况。
there was a number of like Vera Rubin rack solutions coming out for next year or what Nvidia is going to do with NDL72. SpaceX alone was looking to lock in about 20 to 30 20% of the Vera Rubins for next year.
That's one player. So, and and and that's like I I I forget they they based on the analyst it was like they were getting around somewhere around 20%, what they really wanted was closer to like 25 or 30%.
But because Jensen and Nvidia can't just give everything to one player, it and to me it just shows me that we are going to be in such a compute constraint market next year, 2027, and I believe we're going to continue to see that in in 2028.
Nvidia 今年盈利的 23.5 倍估值合理吗？未来两个财年，其 EPS 预期增长 130%，对应前瞻市盈率 10 倍。这并不算贵的市场。
Does Nvidia deserve to trade at 23 and a half times this year's earnings when over the next two fiscal years they have an expected 130% EPS growth 10 times forward. This is not an expensive market.
我们也看到 Nvidia 这样的玩家在想办法改进数据中心的建设方式。我很确定你也看到了，Steve。在 GTC 柏林大会上，他们发布了那个 DSX pod 系统。他们之前也谈过一些，但这次更像是一个已经内置了某种 AI 服务器解决方案的集装箱。
所以 Nvidia 和所有这些玩家在帮助你建设数据中心、或者说建设这个数据中心方面越来越擅长，这意味着你能更快地确认这些收入。而且我认为，像 Oracle 这样根据其财报电话会来看在建设这些数据中心方面已经相当高效的公司，只会变得越来越好。Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率是 10.2 倍。
we're also seeing players like Nvidia try to find ways to improve um the ways that data centers are built up. I'm pretty sure you saw it, Steve. Um, they they during GTC Berlin, they released that DSX pod system.
They talked a little bit about it over time, but this one was more like it's a shipping crate that has already a kind of a AI server solution. So Nvidia and all these players are getting better at at helping you build a data center or build the data center which means you're going to be collecting that revenue a lot faster and I think um companies like Oracle which are already pretty efficient based on their earnings call at building these data centers are just going to get uh better and better. Nvidia is a 10.2 forward,
而且有 Nvidia 这样的公司投资 30 亿美元。我喜欢这样。你看，我说过，我希望 Nvidia 成为伯克希尔·哈撒韦那样的存在。好，让 Nvidia 尽情奔跑吧。让 Jensen 成为每一家超大规模云厂商的股东，Meta，所有公司。
我希望那张资产负债表上装满这些公司的股票。我希望那张资产负债表利用它的现金，让我们在未来处于有利位置。我对此没有意见。
and you have companies like Nvidia invest three billion. I love it. Look, I have said that I want Nvidia to become the Birkshshire Hathaway attack. Okay, let Nvidia ride, baby.
Let Jensen become a shareholder in every one of these hyperscalers, Meta, everybody. I want that balance sheet to be loaded up with shares of these companies. I want that balance sheet to be utilizing its cash to put us in a great position going forward. And I don't have a problem with this.
Jasse 是在周四。
Jasse is on Thursday.
你看到 Nvidia 这样的大玩家在确保自己正在改变融资世界。
I just you you have big players like Nvidia making sure they're transforming the financing world.
Jensen 提到过每吉瓦 40 吉瓦，不，是 400 亿美元，那就是 4000 亿美元的资本开支。Jassee 不会让这种事发生的。
and Jensen has mentioned 40 gawatt 40 billion per gigawatt that's 400 billion in capex Jassee is not going to let that.
而且你与 Nvidia 有着这种良好的关系。
and you have the great you have this great relationship with Nvidia
我可能是错的。我认为，今天就先不提过去发生了什么。显然，它一直是更好的投资。我认为从今天的价位来看，未来一年 Nvidia 的回报率比 AMD 更高。
I'm probably wrong. I think today, forget what's happened. Obviously, it's been a better investment. I think today there is more ROI from today's levels in Nvidia than AMD over the next year.
我可能是错的。我希望、也认为 AMD 会表现不错，但我确实认为相比 Nvidia，它太贵了。是的。我是说，我持有 AMD。Steve，但我认同这种看法：眼下我们处在这样的市场里，你仍然可以实现大幅的收入增长，同时还能以极低的远期市盈率交易，就像我们在 Broadcom 身上看到的，就像我们在 Nvidia 身上看到的。
I could be wrong. I hope I think AMD is going to do well, but I do think that it's expensive compared to Nvidia. Yeah. I mean, I I I own AMD. Um, Steve, but I agree to the sentiment where like right now we're in the market where you can still grow at massive levels in revenue and you could still be trading at a extremely cheap forward PE ratio like we saw with Broadcom, like we see with Nvidia.
我觉得 Nvidia 被压制得太久了，以至于付出 10 倍不过，我可能是错的。我认为两者都会上涨。我一直认为，从今天的百分比涨幅来看，Nvidia 会涨得更多。就是这样。
I feel like Nvidia has been held down so much that paying 10 Now, I could be wrong. I think they both go up. I always think Nvidia from a percentage of today goes up more. That's all.
我会选一个 AI 领域的大玩家，我认为它会继续赢下去，那就是 Nvidia。
I would pick uh a big player in the AI space that I think will keep on winning and that would be Nvidia.
你已经有一个了，就是 Nvidia。但我不认为、我把它看作“神奇七雄”里的第一名。那只是众多“神奇”之一，那在我眼里是自成一档的，是市场上最好的公司。
you already have one with Nvidia. Uh, but I don't consider I consider that a mag number one. That that's just a magnificent that's that's its own league in my which is the best company in the market.
Nvidia 是我的第一选择。
Nvidia is my number one.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 27 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。